TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

[iluswirl]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

This is true, but for all intents and purposes, other than killing me, the selection process is random.

Also, i'm not entirely familiar with how the serial killer role works, even after reading about it several times, but if sk targets the wolf, even if we mislynch, that wouldn't be instalose, correct?

[iluswirl]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

I just read through some posts, i'll be posting again in a minute.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

You're right

I'm saying that if we mislynch, your 19/25 chance of two greens dying shrinks a little, but is still the highest probability.

I.e. if we mislynch, the highest probability outcome is town can't win.

[iluswirl]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

That's true, but as town our strongest ability is our lynch, letting one go to the wayside could be beneficial but it could be bad as well.

This said, I went through the chat logs of sunfan and xig just now. The person they seemed most eager to distance themselves from was plop. I'm not saying pull the trigger because xig seemed VERY insistent on lynching plop, which makes me hesitant that he would push that hard on a fellow wolf.

Thoughts, anybody?

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

i'm going to make a few scattered observations about our game before I head out for a while

That's true, but as town our strongest ability is our lynch

First of all, our strongest ability is our vote, not our lynch. The PMs that go out say that the vote is strong, but it's useful in more ways than the obvious one.

The vote is a tool to get information out of people. We place votes to gauge reactions. We place votes to control others (yes, even town does this). The vote is more than a way to get a lynch, it's a way to gain information. That's its primary role.

That said, I don't agree with the logic that we should use it because it's there. Or rather, I think in a situation like this we shouldn't feel compelled to make lynches we're not comfortable with. Because we most likely lose if we're wrong.

Secondly, I mentioned this yesterday, but this is a special game we're in now. Every player is playing optimally for town, that is, to kill reds. None of these posts have bullshit protecting fellow wolf-mates. In THAT regard, we are significantly more likely to nail a red because everybody is actively seeking a red lynch (that is, when we are indeed performing a lynch). By that logic, it's in our favor to try to lynch a red.

...That said, as I said before, a failure pretty much seals our fate. My plan ensures that we have a safe course of action regardless of the outcome (...besides bulletproof). It's pretty likely that the wolf or the SK will be targeted tonight, just statistically speaking, but once again the trouble comes when we add bulletproof to the mix. That's what I'm most worried about.

I'm going to say this even though I'm pretty sure the wolf will ignore this: if the wolf targeted the bulletproof SK last night (i.e. you did NOT target Charu) then you should try to drive the lynch in favor of the SK today.

That's a pretty feeble attempt but whatever.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

oh also, I would absolutely love a game where the town wins without ever successfully lynching a red

[iluswirl]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

I like your reasoning, but have we confirmed that no lynch is even an option? If it is, great, but if it's not then we just force a kitb potentially.

[Silvuh]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

it could be that cedo knows that the mafia knows who he is?

I don't think that the SK would make a gambit that could get himself roleblocked to save a blue. The SK hit a wolf that night and wouldn't have risked waiting until the following day to try to get the wolf lynched (or the following night to make the kill.)

During N2, we had ten players alive. The two wolves know each other, the IC and Seer are out, so that leaves six players who could possibly be the doctor. One out of six. Even if the wolves were a coin flip away from blocking the real Doctor, there's still that chance that they wouldn't. And without cedo's play, the Doctor would have protected the Seer, no question.

Assuming the fake Doctor is a townie, out of him and the Seer, one would get roleblocked and the other would be attacked. But neither would know for sure what the wolves would do. Would the wolves really have risked leaving basically a second IC alive to get a shot at a Doctor who can't defend himself, made more probable if they thought the real Doctor would protect the Seer anyway? Maybe. Charu thought they might. But Cedo seemed oddly confident that he wasn't risking his life.

It makes sense for a wolf to make that gambit. He knows who he's going to roleblock (the Seer), so the play only makes the real Doctor doubt himself. Whoever the Doctor decides to target, the Seer won't be getting any new information to use the next day.

Cedo, you can't deny that you made two incompatible claims in defending your actions. If you try to pick apart any argument made against you, there will always be that.

P.S.

Out of the 25 possibilities, as you said, only one is the two anti-town attacking each other. For at least one anti-town being attacked, it's 9/25. 12/25 (almost half) for two towns getting attacked, and 4/25 for only one town getting attacked.

A ATTACKS: B B B B B C C C C C D D D D D E E E E E F F F F F
B ATTACKS: A C D E F A C D E F A C D E F A C D E F A C D E F

The anti-town hit each other, one anti-town and one town are hit, only one town is hit, or two town are hit.

P.P.S.

Every player is playing optimally for town, that is, to kill reds. ... In THAT regard, we are significantly more likely to nail a red because everybody is actively seeking a red lynch.

Except for, you know, the last wolf.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

P.P.S.

Except for, you know, the last wolf.

I meant that every player is actively seeking a red in this day (will change once one of them dies obviously). ANY person is going to try to prevent a lynch on himself for obvious reasons.

Towns try to find mafia and SK, mafia needs to find SK, SK needs to find mafia.

It's not like Xiz or Sunfan is going to try to actively mislead the town to prevent a lynch on a red, rather.

[cedolad]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

Silvuh you're also forgetting that Charu saved me that night.

unvote

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

True, but that's still avoiding the central question

and doesn't deny the possibility that you were in no danger anyway

[cedolad]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

What I don't get is, why would soft claim doc one day, then retract my claim the following day before the real doc claims?

And I'm not trying to avoid the central "question", I'm actually agreeing with it. I misworded both claims. That was my fault.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

xelnya please post something, i don't care if it's useless gifs again

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

What I don't get is, why would soft claim doc one day, then retract my claim the following day before the real doc claims?

I'm not saying that this is what happened, because it's a little far-fetched, but it could have been a ploy to gain green-points from everyone.

It's not a coincidence that Gradiant did it first. (And Xiz commented on it!!)

[cedolad]

Re: TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

Or that could've just been his favorite colors.

I went out of my way to soft claim doc. Why would a wolf try to soft claim a role, and then retract? It obviously would bring attention to them!