TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

[YoshL]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

The Bar burns to the ground.
Unfortunately, dAnceguy thought it'd be a good idea to mull things over a cold beer.

It is Day 4. Day 4 will end July 15th at 1:00 PM.

PLAYERS LIST

1. j-rodd123
2. yo man im awesome
3. cedolad
4. Xiz
5. James May
6. Viccica
7. Netjet!
8. dAnceguy117
9. Sage of the Forest
10. Krauthammer
11. Vendetta21
12. Tps222

========================

Library
Restaurant
Bar
Office
Grocery Store
Mansion
Hospital
School
Shack

[James May]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

welp, I got blocked...again. We need to kill the roleblocker...asap

[James May]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

and rip pete

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

I suppose the key to today is doing your own independent vote count analysis of each of the last three days. You should do that and fully come to some conclusions before you contribute today. We have lost sight and collective memory of some of the games past at this point and it needs to be refreshed anew.

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

So let me get this straight: I'm on the top of your list solely for my voting patterns? I insta'd Netjet on day 1, that worked out well. I avoided lynching Sage because I never thought that was a good lynch, and I wanted to hear more information from him:

@Sage: My vote is wavering over your head right now, but the last part of your statement intrigues me. Why do you consider YMIA or Dance to be better lynch targets than you? The general consensus seems to be that Zoshi/Your actions combined have been dodgy and UTR enough to be suspicious, but the lack of a real defense for you is puzzling. Any insight that you could provide on those two will be valuable if you're right, regardless if you die or not.

but you guys had to insta him way before the day ended. (which I'm still not happy about, preventing information from getting out there and names being named is the worst possible thing you can do)

oh look that 3rd point you made against me on the vote change from kraut to vicc?:

Placeholder/unvote because Lames ninja'd me with his vote of kraut, and i'm not trying to get someone that close to an insta again so people can go all aggressive-tard and insta him like sage.

Yeah, pretty consistent in my feelings there. If anything, you have YMIA swooping in and literally copying what I said a few posts beneath me:

Also, not going to get that close to an insta-Kraut, just yet, but I'll throw one on vicc or something. Not worried about you as much as I am Kraut, but I don't want to put Kraut so close that a stupid accidental vote on him won't throw him off the bridge.

Also, your theory for Vicc and I is weak. Why bother even voting her/calling her out and forcing her to say anything publicly at that point in the game? We each had no real danger or motivation to pull something like that.

When I read your posts now Dance, what I read is a human who thought they had figured the game out, and now that your narrow-minded preconceptions have fallen apart, you're panicking and grasping at straws to connect some dots that don't even exist.

If I get the chance to tomorrow, I'm going to see if anyone tries to lead a lynch on YMIA. It's a theory i've been tossing around in my head the last few days. What if the remaining arson is plotting to lead a lynch against the roleblocker, with YMIA filling that role? It would be an ingenious move honestly.

Only the arsonist counts towards their team's victory condition. If the arsonist can buy themselves cedo/xiz status by leading a lynch on the roleblocker, they keep the game going and gain humanity in the process, with no one suspecting such an insane move to be played.

I can see YMIA setting himself up for this, leaving a bread crumb trail for the Arson to gather up and make a convincing logically sound lynch again them. It really just depends on the mindset of the arsons at this point, is it the desperation and confusion that V was theorizing? I think tonight's results will definitely affect that.

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Well, that whole post was directed at danceguy, and I started writing it while it was still night >.< Keep forgetting that 1 pm is EST.

I never really suspected dance, so this doesn't affect my previous theory of YMIA. Potential arsonists at this point are Lames, Vicc, jrodd or V(V being the only one I can really see leading such a bold plan into action).

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Scratch James from that, I just realize he claimed police as I was re-reading the vote progressions.

[yo man im awesome]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Wasn't here last night, was staying at a friend's.

So let me get this straight: I'm on the top of your list solely for my voting patterns? I insta'd Netjet on day 1, that worked out well. I avoided lynching Sage because I never thought that was a good lynch, and I wanted to hear more information from him:



but you guys had to insta him way before the day ended. (which I'm still not happy about, preventing information from getting out there and names being named is the worst possible thing you can do)

oh look that 3rd point you made against me on the vote change from kraut to vicc?:



Yeah, pretty consistent in my feelings there. If anything, you have YMIA swooping in and literally copying what I said a few posts beneath me:



Also, your theory for Vicc and I is weak. Why bother even voting her/calling her out and forcing her to say anything publicly at that point in the game? We each had no real danger or motivation to pull something like that.

When I read your posts now Dance, what I read is a human who thought they had figured the game out, and now that your narrow-minded preconceptions have fallen apart, you're panicking and grasping at straws to connect some dots that don't even exist.

If I get the chance to tomorrow, I'm going to see if anyone tries to lead a lynch on YMIA. It's a theory i've been tossing around in my head the last few days. What if the remaining arson is plotting to lead a lynch against the roleblocker, with YMIA filling that role? It would be an ingenious move honestly.

Only the arsonist counts towards their team's victory condition. If the arsonist can buy themselves cedo/xiz status by leading a lynch on the roleblocker, they keep the game going and gain humanity in the process, with no one suspecting such an insane move to be played.

I can see YMIA setting himself up for this, leaving a bread crumb trail for the Arson to gather up and make a convincing logically sound lynch again them. It really just depends on the mindset of the arsons at this point, is it the desperation and confusion that V was theorizing? I think tonight's results will definitely affect that.

Honestly, I think you are seriously overthinking this. It would certainly be interesting, but I really doubt that the arson would be stupid enough to do that. They're already down a man, so bringing it down to one person left leaves just a little too much risk I'd think. If anything, I would expect that plan to be used if they had both arsons.

Going by your logic however, I would be voting for V. The only person I can currently see pulling something like that would be him, because to him, the ends justify the means. Really, I'm starting to get the feeling that V is hiding something.

Since everyone else has been doing it, here is my list of suspicions:

1. j-rodd123
2. yo man im awesome
3. cedolad
4. Xiz
5. James May
6. Viccica
7. Netjet!
8. dAnceguy117
9. Sage of the Forest
10. Krauthammer
11. Vendetta21
12. Tps222

Right now, V is my current Arson pick. Like I said above, you're one I'd expect to lean towards self-preservation and using any methods possible to get the ideal end result.

Honestly, I can't decide between either J-rodd or Vicc being more "gut-feeling" suspicious as a potential Roleblocker. Currently I'm more curious about J-rodd, since I feel like he hasn't contributed too many substantial posts (like myself, I won't lie), but is still trying to look active. Like, J-rodd has been giving short and to-the-point inquisitive posts, I don't recall any posts giving any real insight. Vicc, I just really don't know.

I'm not placing a vote yet, but V, my money is on you right now.

If you end up getting lynched, and I'm wrong, then I'm out of guesses really, other than either J-rodd or Vicc being Red. Lynch me if you want, but do it after we take a closer look at those three. I'm not even remotely worried about my death at this point, because of what I've said here, if I'm killed today, you guys had damn well better look these three, V especially.

[James May]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Alright. I should grab out my analysis that I made for Day 2 and pull it out for this, as well as updating my reads.

Right now we should look at those who voted for Kraut. The exception is me obv. Now, everyone needs to have their reads on everyone, only placing town and arsonist. We already know the cops, but firefighter is in the shadows and we need to keep it in the shadow. From what we can infer now:

1. Xiz & dance are not a firefighter, and pretty much we can draw them up as town since town can't burn their own teammates.

2. Sage and Kraut had been extremely suspicious on the days that they were insta'd and failed to defend themselves from being lynched.

3. Viccica did not vote at all on Day 1, only posted once iirc during the entirety of the phase.

4. Tps & V were the main ones who jumped on Zoshi's post (although I did too, but I'm right now focusing on the other players. and for those who forgot about Zoshi's post that Tps & V jumped on, here it is:

Nice going on the lynch guys

) But with V giving a more detailed reason on why it was suspicious with this post:

i considered this briefly and figured he probably wasnt because he has been considered a wolf for this exact sort of posting for THREEEEEEEE GAAAAAMMMMESSSS IN A GODDDDAAAMNNNN ROW now

must be because he is afraid of posting his thoughts about fuckin anything because he is a special little flower that the rest of us don't deserve to see. that or he's scared as shit that he is not as smart as the rest of the players and doesn't want to prove his hypothesis true.

5. Roleblocker had already figured out that Cedo & I were the cops before I had claimed on Day 3, which could only be either ymia or tps, which ironically I had seen them on aim ever since the game started at the same time. Might be a coincidence but I'm not giving them a get out of jail free card because I hadn't seen the other players but them on aim (except for pedolad).

6. Look at the votings that ymia did on Day 1, 2, & 3
Day 1: netjet
Day 2: Sage
Day 3: Viccica

Now, the only vote that would probably give him some town credit would be the one on Netjet. But he was part of the Sage lynch, and voted on Viccica most likely because of lack of activity.

7. Look at Tps' votes from Day 1 to Day 3:
Day 1: Netjet
Day 2: no vote (originally voted for pedolad)
Day 3: Viccica

Like I said about ymia, the vote that gave him some town credit would be the one on Netjet (since we can all agree that Netjet failed fabulously on Day 1). What would also give him a bit of town cred would be the unvote on Cedo, BUT, if you noticed that on Day 3, their reasons to vote for Viccica (as mentioned on these two quotes) are:

vicc

Placeholder/unvote because Lames ninja'd me with his vote, and i'm not trying to get someone that close to an insta again so people can go all aggressive-tard and insta him like sage.

Also because Vicc gets far too many passes because of her job and is perfectly complacent with not providing much stock to her posts/votes. I've noticed that she also tends to express more of her opinions when she's voted on. Let's hear it.

Also, not going to get that close to an insta-Kraut, just yet, but I'll throw one on vicc or something. Not worried about you as much as I am Kraut, but I don't want to put Kraut so close that a stupid accidental vote on him won't throw him off the bridge.

Their reasons are perfectly similar with what they have voted for. But then it seemed like tps tried to cover it up with this post:

@YMIA: you just copied my reasoning for not voting kraut and copied the target of which I switched my vote. I'm flattered, but it's a bit suspicious.

8. About YMIA's post of saying that he's in the bar on that same phase that I got blocked. Since I have claimed the place that Cedo & I went to before him, it seems right that he claims that he had gone to the same place. I'm not calling bullshit on the claim, but it is something to consider. Anyhow, due to my internet dying, and cedo probably lost in work, we failed to send a PM but that didn't matter because we were blocked either way.

9. Viccica's votings from Day 1 to 3:
Day 1: No vote
Day 2: Sage
Day 3: Kraut

By far based on these voting patterns, she would be on the chopping block. There's really nothing else that would give her the saving grace that I would even possibly consider while reading throughout the thread and just by looking at it, by voting patterns bias, that she would most likely be the candidate to be an arson.

10. Back on the AIM stuff, Aside from tps & ymia being on almost every time that I am on, there's also Viccica, although she usually has hers set to Busy, I rarely see when she is online (as an actual status). But, I have seen her less than the other two so who knows...

Anyhow, that pretty much sums up my analysis on ymia, tps & Viccica. Here's my updated reads:

1. j-rodd123
2. yo man im awesome
3. cedolad
4. Xiz (deddo, 95% confirmed)
5. James May
6. Viccica
7. Netjet! (deddo, confirmed)
8. dAnceguy117 (deddo, 95% confirmed)
9. Zoshi/Sage (deddo, confirmed)
10. Krauthammer (deddo, confirmed)
11. Vendetta21
12. Tps222

AND, I think that ymia is the role blocker. Think about it, the only thing that roleblocker can do is block the player's role, can't burn, or do any of that stuff. So the roleblocker can just say that they were ironically in the same building that the cop was in that was roleblocked. Now, since Xiz died in the shack (and since its 50% of the people in the building that died) and dance died, that means that it was only them (respectively on the nights) and the arson him/herself. Now, if you noticed on the phase that Sage died, look at it through here in an arson;s perspective:

Fuck. I really need to learn to go with my gut...

boo. who did ur gut tell you then xiz?

My gut still tells me Yo Man. However I can't fully prove it yet. I'm trying.
(Sorry Yo Man haha)

Now, some might think that ymia might've seen it (not sure, need to remember the viewing during the nights on that particular phase) and told tps to make sure that Xiz died (again, this is from speculation of what is going on here). Since we can pretty much imagine that he (Xiz) nailed it on his suspicion on Netjet while V added more beef to the Netjet lynch.

BUT, the only way that I can see this is if:
a) someone claims fireman and ymia counterclaims it (which would make ymia 75% town)
b) ymia claims fireman and someone counterclaims it (which would make ymia 25% town)
c) if cedo & I don't get roleblocked the next night phase and either clear/confirm of either ymia being town or arsonship.

my vote is on ymia until there's some massive derp-up going on with someone, I am fairly confident that ymia is one of the arsons.

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Their reasons are perfectly similar with what they have voted for. But then it seemed like tps tried to cover it up with this post:

So you're blaming me for having my original reasoning copied by YMIA? Or, you're suggesting we're both wolves, and decided it would be a good idea to post the same exact thing in thread, and then point it out? Do you understand how fucking stupid that would be to do? Give me more credit than that.

I can see YMIA being the roleblocker though. I may be overreaching a tad on my conspiracy theory, but the feeling of him filling that role is still there. This we agree on.

It seems that today's interest has shifted to finding the roleblocker. I can see how this strategy is necessary for the police to perform their duties, but lets not forget that we can end the game if we nail the arsonist today.

This means that we have 2 options. A) Dive into the mentality of what we'd imagine the roleblocker has, and try to reverse engineer the role from a selection of posts (what's being attempted with YMIA). B) Go after the most suspicious person overall and lynch them hoping that we either have the chance to nail the roleblocker or end the game with the arsonist.

I think we need to collectively decide what today's objective is going to be with our lynch, between those two options. I'm going to start things off with a vote on YMIA

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Wasn't here last night, was staying at a friend's.



Honestly, I think you are seriously overthinking this. It would certainly be interesting, but I really doubt that the arson would be stupid enough to do that. They're already down a man, so bringing it down to one person left leaves just a little too much risk I'd think. If anything, I would expect that plan to be used if they had both arsons.

Going by your logic however, I would be voting for V. The only person I can currently see pulling something like that would be him, because to him, the ends justify the means. Really, I'm starting to get the feeling that V is hiding something.

Since everyone else has been doing it, here is my list of suspicions:

1. j-rodd123
2. yo man im awesome
3. cedolad
4. Xiz
5. James May
6. Viccica
7. Netjet!
8. dAnceguy117
9. Sage of the Forest
10. Krauthammer
11. Vendetta21
12. Tps222

Right now, V is my current Arson pick. Like I said above, you're one I'd expect to lean towards self-preservation and using any methods possible to get the ideal end result.

Honestly, I can't decide between either J-rodd or Vicc being more "gut-feeling" suspicious as a potential Roleblocker. Currently I'm more curious about J-rodd, since I feel like he hasn't contributed too many substantial posts (like myself, I won't lie), but is still trying to look active. Like, J-rodd has been giving short and to-the-point inquisitive posts, I don't recall any posts giving any real insight. Vicc, I just really don't know.

I'm not placing a vote yet, but V, my money is on you right now.

If you end up getting lynched, and I'm wrong, then I'm out of guesses really, other than either J-rodd or Vicc being Red. Lynch me if you want, but do it after we take a closer look at those three. I'm not even remotely worried about my death at this point, because of what I've said here, if I'm killed today, you guys had damn well better look these three, V especially.

This post gave me aids.

Honestly just admit if you havent read the thread, save yourself some embarrassment.

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Alright. I should grab out my analysis that I made for Day 2 and pull it out for this, as well as updating my reads.

Right now we should look at those who voted for Kraut. The exception is me obv. Now, everyone needs to have their reads on everyone, only placing town and arsonist. We already know the cops, but firefighter is in the shadows and we need to keep it in the shadow. From what we can infer now:

1. Xiz & dance are not a firefighter, and pretty much we can draw them up as town since town can't burn their own teammates.

2. Sage and Kraut had been extremely suspicious on the days that they were insta'd and failed to defend themselves from being lynched.

3. Viccica did not vote at all on Day 1, only posted once iirc during the entirety of the phase.

4. Tps & V were the main ones who jumped on Zoshi's post (although I did too, but I'm right now focusing on the other players. and for those who forgot about Zoshi's post that Tps & V jumped on, here it is:
) But with V giving a more detailed reason on why it was suspicious with this post:


5. Roleblocker had already figured out that Cedo & I were the cops before I had claimed on Day 3, which could only be either ymia or tps, which ironically I had seen them on aim ever since the game started at the same time. Might be a coincidence but I'm not giving them a get out of jail free card because I hadn't seen the other players but them on aim (except for pedolad).

6. Look at the votings that ymia did on Day 1, 2, & 3
Day 1: netjet
Day 2: Sage
Day 3: Viccica

Now, the only vote that would probably give him some town credit would be the one on Netjet. But he was part of the Sage lynch, and voted on Viccica most likely because of lack of activity.

7. Look at Tps' votes from Day 1 to Day 3:
Day 1: Netjet
Day 2: no vote (originally voted for pedolad)
Day 3: Viccica

Like I said about ymia, the vote that gave him some town credit would be the one on Netjet (since we can all agree that Netjet failed fabulously on Day 1). What would also give him a bit of town cred would be the unvote on Cedo, BUT, if you noticed that on Day 3, their reasons to vote for Viccica (as mentioned on these two quotes) are:


Their reasons are perfectly similar with what they have voted for. But then it seemed like tps tried to cover it up with this post:


8. About YMIA's post of saying that he's in the bar on that same phase that I got blocked. Since I have claimed the place that Cedo & I went to before him, it seems right that he claims that he had gone to the same place. I'm not calling bullshit on the claim, but it is something to consider. Anyhow, due to my internet dying, and cedo probably lost in work, we failed to send a PM but that didn't matter because we were blocked either way.

9. Viccica's votings from Day 1 to 3:
Day 1: No vote
Day 2: Sage
Day 3: Kraut

By far based on these voting patterns, she would be on the chopping block. There's really nothing else that would give her the saving grace that I would even possibly consider while reading throughout the thread and just by looking at it, by voting patterns bias, that she would most likely be the candidate to be an arson.

10. Back on the AIM stuff, Aside from tps & ymia being on almost every time that I am on, there's also Viccica, although she usually has hers set to Busy, I rarely see when she is online (as an actual status). But, I have seen her less than the other two so who knows...

Anyhow, that pretty much sums up my analysis on ymia, tps & Viccica. Here's my updated reads:

1. j-rodd123
2. yo man im awesome
3. cedolad
4. Xiz (deddo, 95% confirmed)
5. James May
6. Viccica
7. Netjet! (deddo, confirmed)
8. dAnceguy117 (deddo, 95% confirmed)
9. Zoshi/Sage (deddo, confirmed)
10. Krauthammer (deddo, confirmed)
11. Vendetta21
12. Tps222

AND, I think that ymia is the role blocker. Think about it, the only thing that roleblocker can do is block the player's role, can't burn, or do any of that stuff. So the roleblocker can just say that they were ironically in the same building that the cop was in that was roleblocked. Now, since Xiz died in the shack (and since its 50% of the people in the building that died) and dance died, that means that it was only them (respectively on the nights) and the arson him/herself. Now, if you noticed on the phase that Sage died, look at it through here in an arson;s perspective:






Now, some might think that ymia might've seen it (not sure, need to remember the viewing during the nights on that particular phase) and told tps to make sure that Xiz died (again, this is from speculation of what is going on here). Since we can pretty much imagine that he (Xiz) nailed it on his suspicion on Netjet while V added more beef to the Netjet lynch.

BUT, the only way that I can see this is if:
a) someone claims fireman and ymia counterclaims it (which would make ymia 75% town)
b) ymia claims fireman and someone counterclaims it (which would make ymia 25% town)
c) if cedo & I don't get roleblocked the next night phase and either clear/confirm of either ymia being town or arsonship.

my vote is on ymia until there's some massive derp-up going on with someone, I am fairly confident that ymia is one of the arsons.

this is a great post. you've improved so much. are cedo's thoughts the same as yours?

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

So you're blaming me for having my original reasoning copied by YMIA? Or, you're suggesting we're both wolves, and decided it would be a good idea to post the same exact thing in thread, and then point it out? Do you understand how fucking stupid that would be to do? Give me more credit than that.

I can see YMIA being the roleblocker though. I may be overreaching a tad on my conspiracy theory, but the feeling of him filling that role is still there. This we agree on.

It seems that today's interest has shifted to finding the roleblocker. I can see how this strategy is necessary for the police to perform their duties, but lets not forget that we can end the game if we nail the arsonist today.

This means that we have 2 options. A) Dive into the mentality of what we'd imagine the roleblocker has, and try to reverse engineer the role from a selection of posts (what's being attempted with YMIA). B) Go after the most suspicious person overall and lynch them hoping that we either have the chance to nail the roleblocker or end the game with the arsonist.

I think we need to collectively decide what today's objective is going to be with our lynch, between those two options. I'm going to start things off with a vote on YMIA

quite obviously it's B. vote non villager people it's that simple

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

when I get home to a computer I am going to shit all over your post yoman

[James May]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

oops. just realize on the first point I wrote town by accident instead of arson.