TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

what the fuck yoman, nothing to say at all, reaaaaaalllllly?

[yo man im awesome]

I'm away from home right now, I should be home in like an hour or so.


Posted from Flashflashrevolution.com App for Android

[yo man im awesome]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

First off, I'd like to point out that V disregarded me entirely and went on to make a baseless vote that had no support to it in his post, which at this point in the game seems quite unlike him. Like really, V, what happened to this:

I suppose the key to today is doing your own independent vote count analysis of each of the last three days. You should do that and fully come to some conclusions before you contribute today. We have lost sight and collective memory of some of the games past at this point and it needs to be refreshed anew.

Here, Vicc makes the same point I did about J-rodd not too long after I made the post, not bringing new insightful thoughts on the topic, just supposedly using the same thought process as me (Similar to when I voted Vicc the phase before with the same logic as Tps.), except Vicc actually places a vote onto him.

Jrodd for right now. I feel his place in this game has been very inconsequential and he's been skating lazily by, I can't readily think of a time where he sincerely contributed which I believe is more suspect than anything this far along in the game.

Tps was seriously nitpicking at James' posts, which seems worthless really. Its one thing to argue different opinions and points, but the extent you went to was completely unnecessary, Tps, especially because James and Cedo are claimed cops.

J-Rodd, you threw a vote on Viccica, after ranting on Viccica's post and mine. While you seem more irritated with my post, you went with Danceguy's logic and targeted Viccica, and I actually agree with that. Not solely because it means you're not targeting me, but you seem to want the arson gone more than the roleblocker now. And that leaves me curious after seeing Tps' post. Why the sudden change of heart in wanting the arson gone before the roleblocker?

Calling it now: roleblocker=yoman, arsonist=viccica or tps, and in agreeance with danceguy's dying post, Viccica it is time for you to burn

This game is already won, finish it and use your heads. i am actually a bit angry if you didnt notice so fking end the game

Overall, you people are getting way overly frustrated right now. I've seen the words "give up" a few too many times in the past couple of pages. Don't let your anger and frustration cloud your thinking, that is going to seriously hurt us at this point in the game.


While i'm still very worried about V, I'm caught between voting J-Rodd or Vicc right now. Tps, your recent posts with James are not helping your case either.

To both have a vote out and to avoid any unnecessary near-insta situation, I'm going to vote Viccica for now.

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Alright James, re-read your own posts and clarify what you mean.

Roleblocker had already figured out that Cedo & I were the cops before I had claimed on Day 3, which could only be either ymia or tps

Originally Posted by James May View Post
Also tps, why else were we blocked two nights in a row before I had claimed?

omfg haha. can arson burn their own teammates? no. So thus, you have to place in that they're town. Also, I never said that directed with you or ymia. READ MY FUCKING POSTS CAREFULLY. If I ask you why else did roleblocker blocked cedo & I TWO FUCKING NIGHTS IN A ROW BEFORE WE CLAIMED, I am asking you to show what lead the roleblocker to block us two nights in a row before we claimed. NOT, what you and ymia had to do with it. Stop acting like an idiot, and read the posts carefully.

Do you see how none of this is related? Those parts I bolded: How is it only either YMIA or myself? Then, why would him or myself know how you got roleblocked the first two nights? How are either of those related? I am reading your posts carefully, but the way you write sometimes makes it very difficult to understand what exactly you're trying to say.

I was merely confused as to why you were narrowing down roles without reason, and them assuming myself or YMIA had that knowledge.

[James May]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Do you see how none of this is related? Those parts I bolded: How is it only either YMIA or myself? Then, why would him or myself know how you got roleblocked the first two nights? How are either of those related? I am reading your posts carefully, but the way you write sometimes makes it very difficult to understand what exactly you're trying to say.

I was merely confused as to why you were narrowing down roles without reason, and them assuming myself or YMIA had that knowledge.

The part where it had you or ymia on the first quote box, that was going through process of elimination from the posts that I had gone through the entire thread, as aforementioned in my suspicions list as like I had said. Of course, this is going along with a small theory that I am working on.

The question, was to exclude every player and give the roleblocker an unknown player identity, since we don't know who is the role blocker yet, correct?

The question was not meant to place either you or ymia in that position, more like an arbitrary question that allows us to work backwards to find out who is the roleblocker just by the behaviour of said player by the insight of psychology. As for me, the main factor in this, aside from behavioural and analytical aspects of the player's role, but the psychological aspect as well.

Now, I'll bring up a post soon to fully explain my theory on who could be the roleblocker, and the other arson of course.

[YoshL]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

current votecounts really quick

(2) Viccica - j-rodd, yo man
(2) j-rodd - Viccica, Tps
(1) yo man - James
(1) tps - V
(1) no vote - cedolad


Insta is at 4 votes, 2 away

[Viccica]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

My comment on Jrodd isn't really baseless, I arrived on him through the process of elimination. The police are publicized and being roleblocked, I'm not sure what to make of V but the fact he's alive is the closest thing to suspect I could even consider mentioning about him, which is moot with this game design.

As far as James goes, I feel his head is in the right place but that the longer this progresses, the more frenzied he becomes. Seems like he's just losing track of what to do.

That leaves TPS, Jrodd, Yo man and myself. TPS seems like he's thinking logically, as he always does, which makes it difficult for me to place him. I know it's not myself.

So that leaves Yoman and Jrodd. I'd be fine seeing either one go because I find them both suspect. Yoman has avoided a lynch for a couple days now, which is interesting but there's no point in reiterating the reasons why people found him suspicious. Jrodd has tagged along with other voters and popped in here and there. I don't know who I feel worse about, but I'd be fine seeing either lynched. Interestingly enough, J-rodd and Yoman are both voting together on me at the moment.

I don't think I've done anything inherently wolfy, the only logic to vote for me is that I've been a ghost. Which isn't really anything new or exciting. Grasping at straws, boys.

[James May]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Writing up my post right now on a different program, will present it in a while, gotta dig stuff up.

[James May]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

(Just a heads up, yes there might be some redundancy in it, but it is all part of my theory so I’m pulling all the info into this post, all posts are hyperlinked to save space in msword as that's where I had formatted my analysis)

Alright, time to present my theory of Arson & Town:

Time to pull up the player list remaining:
• Me
• Cedo
• Jrodd
• tps
• Viccica
• V
• Ymia

The people that are in question are:
• Tps
• Viccica
• Ymia
• V

That much we know. But now, we must bring forth the reasons being said against them that we are being incited on. Knowingly, all this presents a greater challenge as we have two players that aren't as active as we would like them to be which are:
• Ymia
• Viccica

And with that, we are bringing up three crucial aspects that make up the mind of a player when playing these sorts of games:
1. Logical/Analytic
2. Emotional/Manipulation
3. Psychological

Why don’t we start off with Tps.

Here’s what we know so far for tps:
• Likes to have certainty in his posts
• Extremely nitpicky when something has some speculation with lose ground evidence (basically circumstantial evidence rather than substantial evidence)
• For the most part, uses an analytical approach to his posts when trying to find who the arson/wolf/mafia/etc is.

Now, if we take a look at these posts that are made to believe that he could the arson:
• http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=642
• http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=627
• http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=357
• http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=546

Now, take that, and look at the posts that would make him look like a town:
• The lynch on Netjet
• http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=578
• http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=605
• http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=443
o Continuation: http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=444

Now, let’s take a look at tps’ voting for the past three day phases
• Day 1: Netjet
• Day 2: unvote (after voting for Cedo originally)
• Day 3: Viccica (after voting for Kraut originally)

Now then, his voting patterns are fairly town-based, nothing too oblivious about that. Now what baffles me is the vote V has pulled onto tps (which has no ground to base his vote on) and solely says this:
• “Bishop to B8”

Now then, it could be that V is playing this game like chess, in which we can take basically use the methodology called “seeing the game internally” or otherwise known as “flipping the table upside down” (not literally folks). And we can devise the roles as important pieces in this area:
• White King: Firefighter (unidentified)
• White Knight: Police (Cedo/James)
• White Pawns (Sage/Kraut/Xiz/dance/Jrodd)
• Black King: Roleblocker (unidentified)
• Black Pawns: Arsons (Netjet/1 unidentified)

Note how I’m prioritizing the pieces and roles. The most important whites there is are the firefighter and the police, in which we can’t afford to lose. The most important black piece is the roleblocker, which if the roleblocker dies, then arson would have to worry about being seered.

But, enough of tps now, time to pull up on ymia.

As we can see from what has been going on in this game, ymia has been barely active at all. And to pin it, here’s what I have that proves that he barely keeps up with the thread:
• http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=608
It shows that his analysis has barely any ground to push forth in what could have potentially been a grand analysis. It is marred by high speculation, and really nothing to note on that could have given him some town credibility. That immediately places him on the chopping block.

Also, I would like to point out his voting for the past three day phases:
• Day 1: Netjet
• Day 2: Sage
• Day 3: Viccica

I mean one could say that “hey, at least he voted, so that could make him active…right?” Wrong. If we look at the number of posts that he has made, it would show that he lacked activity and contribution to the game itself (I count joke posts to lack of contribution as well), which would be 30 posts. We are on page 33, which would average his posts to about less than a post per page. Of course he has made his reason for the inactivity (which is where I’m going to point out with Viccica next).

Now I know that post count is rubbish but if we are to win this, we need to take an entirely different approach since for two day phases in a row we have taken the approach of “who is the most suspicious and lynch them” has failed horribly (hi Sage & Kraut). Now we need to look at the contributions each player has made and work backwards on who could potentially be:
• Roleblocker
• Arson

Because without that, we will be in for a long ride of mislynches.

Now, for Viccica, I feel like this would be the hardest to give a fully fleshed out analysis for her because if we look at jTWG 59: Back in Black, she has given off this sort of behaviour before and in the end she was a human. Now, she has employed this sort of behaviour into this game and it boggles down to her, ymia, and tps. Let’s look at her voting patterns:
• Day 1: No vote
• Day 2: Sage
• Day 3: Kraut

Of course, in terms of post count she is more active than ymia, but her posts are wavering in lack of progression in her posts. Yeah, she has more stuff than ymia but quantity =/= quality. So in essential, her post that does contribute is at a ratio of 1:5, whereas ymia (as much as there’s much fluff in his posting) is at a ratio of 1:3 in terms of contributive posts.

Now, time to look at V’s voting in depth.
We can obviously tell that V has received tremendous Town credit for lynching Netjet. But it feels like his credit has gone on a sink, especially with the votes on Kraut and tps, both providing literally no reason to vote on as he gave no proper analysis on what he thinks of them. But, what really nailed the head on the coffin was the fact that V’s statement on his reason to vote on tps. “Bishop to B8.” That is all that he has written on for his vote on tps. Now, we can simply deconstruct his posts all day, but the fact that he has not brought forth anything to the table after the lynch on Sage brings up three scenarios:
• He is the firefighter
• He is the arson
• He is the roleblocker

All I can say now is that I could see where this is going, the person we expected the least to be the arson is the arson itself. Now, I’m just saying it hypothetically but look at it this way: would a town be decreasing its contribution when it has been highly contributive from the start? Most likely not. But, the transition that V has brought onto himself tells quite the story. Why would V be lowering his quality when he is town? I mean, that makes sense because he was one of the people who contributed the lynch on Netjet. I know I might be dragging on, but the whistle blows when he is lowering his quality.

And thus, through much analysis on all the other players that are in question, V is one of the arsons. I know its crazy but if you noticed the progression that V has gone in from being hightly protown to essentially UTR-play, you would see the reason

updated reads on the remaining 7:
• Me
• Cedo
• Jrodd
• tps
• Viccica
• V
• Ymia

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

I've just been busy. I wanted to see if anyone would vote TPS if I voted him, which is what the chess reference was about. Didn't have to do with the way TPS responded.

I think there is a sense that right now long verbose posts constitute activity but there is an element of overthinking it involved with some of that logic. You only have so much to say at any given moment and the more you dig for more to say the more you approach a level of analysis paralysis. You are reinterpreting all of my play based off a day without activity and the lack of long thorough posts when it is readily apparent that the wolves know this is the current expectation of play and are happily engaging.

What I find extremely interesting about jrodd's tone of anger at this point is that I don't get a strong sense of investment from him throughout the course of the game. He has not been a playmaker in any sense so it seems extremely weird how mad he would get about losing a win that he hasn't really been intimately connected to earning in the first place.

I nailed netjet and while I feel extremely tentative about my decisions right now because everyone has shades of wolfiness and humanity, I don't feel angry at the level of activity or the direction things are moving in. And I more than him have done something to earn the win. What is surprising there is also the level of feigned conviction. This could be a make or break play and clearly everyone is in a state of deep analysis and reevaluation, but jrodd's tone had an element of rushing the conclusion.

When I get vitriolic it is typically to get information flowing or pressure someone. In an important situation it is necessary to take a deep breath and move it slowly.

TPS' logic is pretty good too. The repeated mention of the roleblocker in jrodd's posts has a distinctly Freudian tone.

jrodd

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

take me off 1 away from insta u piece of shit this is absurd

[James May]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Jrodd, I'm curious to see what you have on V, tps, ymia, and Viccica. Also, claim man. If you're firefighter, claim so that we can avoid another mislynch.

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

look at all the clear people in the game listing me as good. including danceguy who along with james has put in the most work in this game.

V i really don't know what to think anymore since I can't fathom how someone would start a wagon against an arsonist teammate day 1, but if anyone could do it it would be you. i need to reevaluate.

if yoman comes in and instas me then sick wolf tell bro

[James May]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

I am just going to say this: DO NOT PLACE A VOTE ON JRODD just to end the phase. We need to gather as much information as possible before we make the right lynch.

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

Jrodd, I'm curious to see what you have on V, tps, ymia, and Viccica. Also, claim man. If you're firefighter, claim so that we can avoid another mislynch.

yes i am FIREFIGHTER, and i didnt want to claim since i definitely did not think it was necessary i was not getting any heat. and this is the funniest/sketchiest thing i have ever seen. first night i went office, then i random .org'd my buildings the rest of the phases since there was no plausible strategy to pick buildings.