TWG X - DAY 6 - CYPHER DECIPHERD - HUMANS WIN

[GuidoHunter]

If I were indeed a wolf, there would have been MANY much better options for me, most of which would cast NO suspicion on me, so why, in God's name, would I choose this one? Like I said before: FAR too risky for me.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[HansSky]

Wow, Guido, you're getting awfully defensive of yourself. Sounds wolfish to me...


Of course, people may actually think that. But I do agree with you. This whole double reverse psychology ordeal is very possible, but like Guido said, there are plenty of better things to do. And ESPECIALLY on night one, when everyone is completely clueless already. There is no need to play mind games with anybody at this stage in the game.

[Matthew4444]

Now that I've spent more time analyzing everything, I'm posting more paranoid suspicions. It seems that Afro, EB, and Cypher are in a three-way alliance. Afro and Cypher are both using the similar arguement that makes Guido look guilty, while at the same time they're just saying that Guido shouldn't be ruled out. This has lead me to believe that the ACE group is either the Masons or the Wolves, and that they want Guido to stay as a suspect so people don't rule him out as a lynch target.

[GuidoHunter]

Haha, funny you mention that, Hans, since, if you recall from Manhunt, my NOT flipping out and being extremely defensive was used against me (quite correctly, as I mentioned in the postgame) to get me lynched. The only other time I had to do so I was human, too.

Of course, yeah, I could have realized this and changed my ways, blahblahblah, but I was ecstatic to find out that I was human this game, and I'm not going to go down without a fight.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[evilbutterfly]

Matt, the ACE Group was a joke. Nobody would seriously come out and say "Me, Afro, and Cypher are wolves. We're the ACE Team!"

Seriously, you keep looking into what I say waaaay too much or overlooking the obvious...

[alainbryden]

Do not vote Guido tonight. He is too valuable to the humans to make a mistake of lynching him. I'm sure he will be seen tonight , and then work can spread of whether or not he is a wolf, but do not make this your dar one lynching, or you are sorely on the wrong track in this game. Since we absolutely have to take out someone today, if there is no good evidence against anyone, which I beleive is impossible since it is the first day, I will be voting for the least active player. I hope others follow the good example.

[aperson]

Hi guys, sorry for not posting earlier... I've been out getting a sports physical (Turn head and cough etc...) and just got back, not to mention the tetanus shot has made my mousing hand feel like a goddamn brick.

This game is taking an interesting turn already, but I'd like to propose a thought:

This 'double reverse psychology' game will get all of us nowhere... The reasons why are pretty simple:

The game of reverse psychology is a chain; All you are doing by playing this game is guessing where the 'chain' has ended. You see, you can speculate all you want whether it's a single or double-reverse psychology loop, but theoretically it is impossible to back up this logic. In essence, by taking a stance either way based on double or single-reverse psychology you will be taking a 50/50 stab at best since it is impossible to determine the motives the perpetrator had for the action (whether they were internally thinking of a double or single chain). If we want to eliminate the wolves we have to approach this way of sifting through information and events differently.

[roopert]

Well this is an interesting first night kill. You can only wonder why they would pick Stretchy when there are so many other people I would have picked over her. (no offense) In any event, it doesn't give us much to work with on day 1 other than what has already been said, so I am a bit lost on who to vote for. However, assuming Stretchy wasn't the guardian, the guardian really has a tough job on choosing who to protect. There is no super-power in this game (except maybe alian) so everyone if basically fair game. However, it does seem they are trying to lynch people that will leave us little to work with, or at least be confused, so I would recommend protecting players such as EB, Guido, Myself, Cypher, etc. I don't mean to sound too wolfish saying "OMG PROTECT ME PLZ!". All I'm asking is the guardian really think about who to protect. We'll find out after tonight if they plan on lynching the most active players like in Infiltration, or if they would rather aim for the lower-risk players. The first day is always the hardest.

[alainbryden]

It's hard to tell just how the wolves with play. If they start going after all the good players, and one of the good players happened to be their devil, then they just kicked themselves in the shins, bad. I therefore don't think they'll be doing this. I think the wolves will realise that their best strategy is to vote low-key, human seeming players, so that, even if they do accidentally knock out their devil, at that level of player it won't be all that much of a loss to them. I don't think the wolves are will risk taking out the most skilled players just yet, because it could potentially harm their one advantage in the game. This doesn't mean I don't think I shouldn't be guarded

[evilbutterfly]

You can only wonder why they would pick Stretchy when there are so many other people I would have picked over her

Notice how wolf kills always follow that pattern on Night 1. They don't want to give us anything to work with. Looks like they did a good job.

And it's been said before, but really all we have to go on are voting patterns, and Day 1 we have none. Hopefully we get lucky and hit a wolf today, but I doubt it =\

[JurseyRider734]

You can only wonder why they would pick Stretchy when there are so many other people I would have picked over her

Notice how wolf kills always follow that pattern on Night 1. They don't want to give us anything to work with. Looks like they did a good job.

And it's been said before, but really all we have to go on are voting patterns, and Day 1 we have none. Hopefully we get lucky and hit a wolf today, but I doubt it =\

Meaning the wolves aren't any old dumbasses. It's probably two experienced players and a newer one, since blah said he'd change it if it were unfair (3 newbs or 3 vets). I'd say look for some of the ones who are more devious. Guido and Hans were sneaky wolves in Infiltration. I'm not saying that it's definite, but there could be a possibility that they're going to pull another quick one. (ex. get more than one kill in a night, make us believe that someone who is a human is a wolf, while wolfing another one during their turn)

[alainbryden]

Still not a safe risk to vote one of the better players on day one I feel

[Tps222]

Okay, people are just saying the same thing over and over again, about this whole double reverse pyschology thing, while it may be a possibilty, it is not going to help us at this point, because it is almost impossible to figure out, so I'm not sure what to go off of right now.

@whorli: No vote is ever random . I purposely voted Roopert because he is known to be rather quiet, and we need all the people we can get to be active as possible, think of the vote as kind of a boost, and, I wanted to see how he responded. Remember, in TWG 8 LD was a wolf, and went along his whole "I always random vote, so i'm not suspicous, and later on he ends up being a wolf, I just don't want the same thing happening with Roopert.

[mead1]

Well, I haven't posted in awhile, so here's my two cents.

Personally, since I have nothing better to go on, I like the double reverse psychology-thing. Reverse psychology may be an endless cycle, but I believe it ends on double. I personally do not feel strongly enough to vote on it though.

I also think that we are not going to really get anywhere until Day 2, so we are just grasping for straws. I don't want to lynch a human, no one does (wolves aside of course) but we are very likely going to do just that. The wolves are not stupid, and they would need to have an I.Q. of 4 to make an obvious mistake on Day 1.

Don't mean to be so negative, but it's a little depressing

Anyone else wondering where Kefit is?

[Afrobean]

Kefit's working or something. I think it's the same for Kilga.