TWG XXIII: Assault on France! Victor E. to Humans!

[nickadeemus]

Okay, Tps voted LD while I was making my post and I didn't want my vote to be a second vote. Maybe I'll stick around a few minutes longer to see if I need to change it.

[Tps222]

Exactly EB, LD was known for it early, but has dropped it lately. It seems as he is trying too hard to fit in, putting a vote on someone that no one knows well, and resorting to his old excuses to cover up for it. It just all seems very odd to me.

[lightdarkness]

You ALL know my random first day voting has stoped since several TWG's ago. My vote was based on the fact that wolves try and justify the kill as if they were a human, I think i've done it, and I recall other people doing it in the past.

Voting me just because I voted you is a joke. What are you suspicious of? The timing of my vote is not justifyable. The reasoning for my activity? No work today and no homework. However, I'm just starting a new project right now that deserves my attention, and I won't have all evening to defend myself. What am I supposed to do?

I guess if this turns into anything else, I will be placing my vote on Kilga, since I think he has 2-3 votes now.

[evilbutterfly]

*shrug* Like I said, I don't know people, especially not anymore. I'm just saying, you can't say either way which way anything shows him. Like me, I'm acting especially off this game, and it's for a multiplicity of reasons ranging from college to me changing as a person to my role in the game to the wind blowing a different way. I'm just saying what I know about people and leaving you all to decide. It's what I always do because I don't know people enough and suck at analyzing.

And if I'm not mistaken, there's a 3-way tie right now between nick, LD, and blah. Of those 3, I'm most suspicious of blah (hence me being one of the votes on him). Also if I'm not mistaken, there would be quite a few phantoms if the day ended right now. =\

[evilbutterfly]

PS: I know I've tried to justify the kill as a human as well as a wolf. Especially given that it's nick's first TWG game and he wouldn't know that it's semi-useless to do so, I don't think that's much of a reason to vote him.

[talisman]

ld this is what that last comment said to me: "well if I can't random vote, then I guess I'll bandwagon." The only thing holding me back from voting you is that I know (read: really hope) that you're better than that as a wolf.

[FishFishRevolution]

Tasselfoot - his posts have been lesser this game, as everyone's have. He's not trying to control anything, he was the first to go to eb. Leaning towards human.

nickadeemus - first TWG, I'm going to watch him after his supposed suspicious first post (although I don't think it's all that suspicious). Could go either way.

nforcer06164 - He's been sort of dense on a few issues on AIM and on the forums. Advocating plans that can only help the wolves and not understanding why these are bad ideas. nforcer is smarter than that I think. Probably wolf.

dAnceguy117 - innactivity, nothing much to go on right now. Could go either way, i'll have to review some past games for him.

Kilgamayan - I was surprised when votes started coming out on him, becuase I thought exactly the same thing. Comparing these posts to XVIII make me lean towards wolf.

Afrobean - was high up on my suspicion list, mostly because of his quick vote, but since about page three my suspicion has dropped considerably on him. Still could go either way.

talisman - defending against blah's attacks a lot like he did last game, although I'm sure they could easily have wisened up to that, and could be trying to duplicate it for this game. Go back to last game and read some of the accusations by blah on talis and the defense style; it's almost exactly the same. All this said, I'm still leaning towards human due to the content of his other posts.

lightdarkness - in chat he comes off very human, but in the forums he keeps doing stuff that makes me suspicious of him. Leaning towards human.

Tps222 - Tps, could be either way.

GuidoHunter - One post. He effectively summed up what had been said so far, then lost his train of thought. My gut says wolf, but logically he could go either way.

HansSky - His posts have been sparse, a lot like last game. Leaning towards human.

QreepyBORIS - haven't gotten much of a reading off of him. He suggested the same scenario about the wolfing that I suggested about panda last game, which doesn't mean all that much. Leaning towards human.

evilbutterfly - rofl alliance leader

blahblah18 - quick to accuse talis, again, a lot like last game when they were both humans. But they could be wolf partners. Not quite sure as of yet, could be either way.

[talisman]

talisman - defending against blah's attacks a lot like he did last game, although I'm sure they could easily have wisened up to that, and could be trying to duplicate it for this game.

could you explain this? we were both human last game...

[FishFishRevolution]

Day 1-Strength Evidence:

Kilgamayan He uses emoticons when he's interested in a game, just like here, here, and here. UNLIKE the last few games where he seemed overall angry or uninterested. If you look at the mood in his posts vs the mood in his recent games, then compare his XVIII mood to THIS game, I think you'll see what I'm trying to get at.

[Tasselfoot]

Sorry guys. Was out most of today.

OK.

eb... assuming 100 that if one mason pair is killed the other is human is a BAD 100% assumption. 95%, 99% even... but not 100%. The suggestion that the night 1 kill was actually a wolf has been tossed around alot early on, basically making the "widower" a confirmed human, but is in fact a wolf. Why would this only apply to night 1? Why not night 2 or night 3? The same result is accomplished. Keep that in mind please.

2nd... don't think this was mentioned in the thread, but likely out of the thread. I'll state it here so those who aren't aware are. When the day 3 psychic report comes about, it will be like this (I'm assuming, as I created the idea)... Night 3 kill is revealed, then number of wolves left is revealed. All by mead. So, if there are 4 wolves left, CLEARLY we are looking for 2 full-mason pairs, and any solo is confirmed human. If there are 3 wolves left, we are looking for either 3 solos or 1 mason pair + 1 solo, likely the day 1 or 2 kill, but possibly the night 1, 2, 3 wolfing. Less than 3 becomes more complicated to explain, but I'm sure you can figure it our yourselves.

Point being... Should it come out 3, it is almost certain that one of the two partners from the day 1/2 lynching is ALSO a wolf... should it come back 2, then both were wolves (although this is very unlikely, if you remember the statistics I showed last game of only ONE wolf ever being lynched day 1 without some sort of blue-aid). If it comes back 1... well... I'd be at a loss for words.

This is just information that eb and everyone should know.

My feelings towards suspicions? Fairly similiar to others, but I guess that is expected. I like Fish's chart. It covers alot of what I was thinking. I'm likely leaning towards nForcer, but there is still time.

Is there a chat?

[FishFishRevolution]

talisman - defending against blah's attacks a lot like he did last game, although I'm sure they could easily have wisened up to that, and could be trying to duplicate it for this game.

could you explain this? we were both human last game...

Yeah, I'm saying you were betting on everyone going, "oh hey blah did this to talis last game when they were both human, that means they're human again," even though this time both you and blah are wolves. The way blah attacked and you defended made it look a little forced--trying to recreate last game.

[talisman]

hmm ok I understand I guess. farfetched and wrong, but whatever

tass, is it possible that if there are 3 left that they could be 3 solos? I'm thinking it over and not seeing it. I think it has to be 1 pair + 1 solo.

ps fish: interesting comparison with XVIII.

[Tasselfoot]

Talisman: hmm... yes. you're right. It MUST be a solo + mason pair. That is better. My mistake.

[dAnceguy117]

Fux, I have to vote.

nforcer because of what I said earlier, but this might change. We've got an hour left.

[Tasselfoot]

Also: should it come back 2, it is almost certainly that the game would end after killing the other 2 from the pairs... but again, highlu unlikely. And the case of 4 wolves is an obvious outcome... which means the case of 3 wolves in the psychic report is the only one that is worth discussing.

And, should it come back 3, I'd assume the natural response would want to be to kill both of the 2 lone mason pairs from day 1/2, even knowing that one is human 100%, but not knowing which... but, we'll assume we get the 2nd of the mason pair. That would leave 2 wolves, and they would HAVE to be in the same mason pair... again, something to not forget.



Finally.... and, I am NOT suggesting this... I am wanting to openly propose and weigh the pros/cons. Thinking about it, I think it is not a correct idea. Reveal the solo mason pairs from the wolf killings... any pros? Helps discern who is almost certainly human, so they would be people not to vote for. cons? wolves would know, wolves would have a likely target, wolves would have process of elimination to finding the remaining full mason pairs and to find the guardian.

Ok... like I thought, not such a good idea... but, after the day 3 psychic report, eb is going to have to post information concerning the pairs. If 4: post all remaining full pairs (should only be 2, 3.... odds are likely there won't be many) to figure out which 2 are wolves. Reveals information, but the pros are better. Allows all remaining players to work on the same playing field to figure out humans vs wolves. If 3: post the 2 solo-masons from day 1/2 lynchings, to figure out which is the wolf, to save lynching a human...