TWG XXIII: Assault on France! Victor E. to Humans!

[Tasselfoot]

Afro: doing it publically reveals the guardian. Doing it privately to the lone green (eb) gets an alliance away from the wolves consisting of the lone wolf, the guardian, and the widowed (86% of the time). Plus, when the day 3 psychic report comes in, there are more goodies that should be fairly obvious.

And, damn you mead... I had that day 5 psychic report in there BECAUSE of what I knew it could do. *sighs*.

[talisman]

afro the downside is small but (IMO) significant.

if all the pairs come out, the wolves will be more likely to wolf one person from each pair, removing your ally, etc. This might happen anyway (just statistically speaking) but it's more likely to happen (duh) if the wolves know who the partners are. It's safer if only one person (eb) knows everything and then when he figures something out (especially after the autopsy) he reports it and we insta or whatever.

if eb goes down, the center of the alliance switches to someone who lost their partner or something. we should probably figure out a system for that contingency, so that there's always someone trustworthy to pass the alliance on to if the center goes down.

on tps... well, it's tps? I've confronted him a little about it. he's giving me the "gut instinct" line.

edit: oh whoops... good catch on the guardian part tass. I knew there was a better reason for everyone not coming out that I forgot.

[Tps222]

Guys, I'm not doing another "TPS" plan again. Theres a point to all of this. I'm not staying on Nforcer the whole time, and I'm not confident he is a wolf. Gut instinct says yes, I feel like putting it out there. I couldn't care less if you believed me, what I do care, is how you react. I want to see who votes where, and who says what. Who fights one another, and who doesn't. This, in my mind, is the most logical way of finding wolves. Previous games, voting patterns have been significant, with the wolves always slipping in 3rd or 4th, making them look human. I want to see what and when the wolves will do what.

Oh yea, still staying with nForcer.

[Afrobean]

Ok, I was pretty sure there was something to not have people coming out. So, when are we going to accept eb as surely the real green?

Also note that it IS possible that night 1 kill was the lone green and eb knew that. Just throwing it out there. I don't necessarily believe it.

[Tasselfoot]

I was discussing this with TPS, after I yelled at him for being a douche in his retarded vote....

and my feeling regarding eb is this: 11/12 says the wolves DIDN'T kill the lone green. so faking it is down right retarded, considering its 50/50 on the lynch day 1 that they will live and the real one will die... and even if that happens, when day 3 rolls around and we see its 4 wolves, then they get the axe day 3. the Expected Value (EV from now on) is damn near zero. so, i'll come out and say it... i've told eb my pair already. then again, i was pushing this plan from the start, so it shouldn't be that big of a surprise.

[talisman]

I say we wait and see if anyone else comes out... it's highly unlikely but you never know. If someone does, we lynch them both and switch to matt's partner for the alliance.

If someone doesn't we trust eb, but I think there should be some kind of security system like where matt's partner and the guardian know each other so that if the guardian dies then matt's partner rats on eb. something like that, I dunno.

Also afro, it seems to me unlikely that eb (or any other wolf, if eb is a wolf) would talk to matt (of all people) before the game started and that matt would reveal himself. But an outside possibility, yes.

[Kilgamayan]

Looks like the wolves are taking a page from recent BMS games. Damn I hate confusion kills on Night 1.

What makes this worse here is that there won't be a stupid bandwagon against me on Day 1 as a result that I can pick wolves out of D:

[Tasselfoot]

Kilga: who pays attention to those jBMS games? I haven't checked out BMS since like twg9... I've heard some BAD things about them though.

[nforcer06164]

I had quite the "wtf" moment when TPS voted for me. I thought he was being serious O_o

Anyway, I think we can trust eb as the lone green. I'd say give it a good 24 hours so everybody can see the thread, in case he is a wolf trying to get the guardian to come out early and take him down. I doubt that is the case here, though.

Talisman, you sent out a PM to all of us about the revelation strategy. Now you're just going back on this. The problem is, there is NO WAY to confirm anybody that said their partner died is telling the truth. It has already been discussed, maybe not in the thread but in other places, that the perfect wolf plan would be to kill one wolf, then another wolf would come out and say their partner was killed. There would be no argument, and BAM. Instant wolf victory. The converse is also true. A human innocently reveals that his partner died. A wolf argues. We lynch the human, and trust the wolf. Even if we decide the arguer is a wolf after one or two days, we've still wasted time with a rat in some alliance, and false words whispered in our ears.

The main focus right now should be this: guardian, wait until all players have seen the thread, then contact eb. This will give you someone to trust and discuss situations with as the rest of us do. And everyone else: TALK TO YOUR MASON PARTNER. The more communication we get amongst ourselves, no matter how small the group, we can trust what the other is saying, knowing their humanity. It can get us a little bit closer to the wolves if we pool our ideas. Two heads are better than one.

Oh yeah. nforcer is back.

[Tasselfoot]

nForcer... I thought of what Talisman said as well, and as well was going to use it. But, considering what Talisman said to everyone... no wolf could get away with doing it, as they wouldn't be able to come out. Theoretically they could be the "widower", but is the EV worth it? can it EVER be worth it to kill 1 wolf night 1? Well, yes... if they can be the center of an alliance. Clearly that isn't the case...

So, yea. Its possible... but the return seems so low. The cons outweigh the pros... just doesn't seem worth it. AND, who would be willing to sacrifice themselves night 1? Look what happened when I got Alain killed last game. He flipped a HUGE bitch to me, and he was going to be lynched either way.

Same with the eb thing. With 4 wolves, you can't possibly have a plan THAT dumb.

[talisman]

I'm not going back on it at all... what are you talking about? I said eb should be the only one to come out, not matt's partner, and that's what happened.

It's true that there's no way to confirm that a person who's by themself is human, but after a few days have gone by you can pretty much assume that they're telling the truth. No wolf wolfs another wolf night two or three... and I doubt it happened night one, especially after my pm.

I'm not going to reveal my partner to him at least until everyone's had a chance to check in on the thread in the long shot that eb's faking it. Do I think he is? no but caution doesn't hurt.

[FishFishRevolution]

At this point I'm going to say that I trust eb because he's not ballsy enough to do it as a wolf.

TPS, it's never safe to assume you're just being TPS--ever. But yet again you're pulling your Day 1 routine. I'll wait until I see more to judge one way or another.

[evilbutterfly]

At this point I'm going to say that I trust eb because he's not ballsy enough to do it as a wolf.

You have no idea what you're talking about. The only reason I wouldn't do this as a wolf was because I didn't realize that the lone green was special, hence my anger at being the lone green. Now that I realize I'm the center of things...w00t!

And uh, we always say to wait for a while before coming out, but seriously, WHO THE HELL EVER COMES OUT!? Honestly, the most I expect from anybody right now is a fucking retarded mystery PM from some pussy like TPS. Fuck that, you might as well come out to me now so I have time to look at the list and see who is who. Plus, I might be going home at some point this weekend, and there I'll have less time to do TWG. If you come out after this and say it's a wolfy rush to get info: fuck you, I'm not a wolf. (lol I've been domineering lately)

Besides, I already know who the guardian is and like, 4-6 people (I forget XD) have come out (due to one partner telling the pair), +4 or whatever wolves, even if I was a wolf and didn't know the guardian already, I have it pretty much narrowed down. So just stop being pansies and dive in. I'd like to at least have the other half of the pairs confirm what one has already said.

PS: If any of you idiots vote for/lynch me and if the guardian fails to protect me tonight, I will fucking come to your house and murder you in your sleep.

[GuidoHunter]

So, lemme get this straight.

If nobody else comes out as the lone green, eb becomes the center of the alliance and, for all intents and purposes, a confirmed human. Only bad possibility is if matt came out as the lone human to someone on eb's wolf team. This, however wouldn't be a problem, because that would leave nobody widowed. In order to check this, everyone could come out stating that their partners are alive. No green would lie and a wolf lying would...okay, the third wolf would come out as the widowed. Damn.

Well, the odds of that situation are mighty low, even though n00bs have come out to players in the past. Like last game, though, I'm disinclined to believe that that happened.

The only other problem with the widower coming out, as was mentioned, was if the wolf team wolfed one of their own members just to get in with eb. There's no guarantee that the wolves would get the guardian's identity from eb even if they did that. The only sure thing to gain from it is being buddy-buddy with eb, which isn't worth losing a team member, as far as I'm concerned.

Aaaaand I've taken too long to compose this post and have lost my train of thought. So as to avoid losing this by accidentally closing my browser, I'll just post this much now.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[nickadeemus]

Just got back from a 27-person hold-em tournament where someone dodged my bullets on the river to take me out at 9th place, so I'm still a little steamy.

About matt-
Confusion kill? Maybe. I can't judge how he would have played during this game, but just on the fact that he and I are TWG noobs means that killing either of us is not a big advantage for the wolves; hence my suspicion. This is one time I hope my suspicion is wrong and matt WAS just a confusion kill. If there was a higher purpose to his death, I can't help but feel threatened being the only inexperienced player left.

The lone green scenarios seem to have been beaten to death by a few other people, and I'm fine with believing that matt was not the lone green and eb is. I didn't see matt online at all today, and the fact that he lives on another continent (and is sleeping when most people are online here) makes me almost certain he didn't 'slip-up' to anyone on AIM. For now and hopefully for the rest of the game, my trust is with you, eb.

Now excuse me while I put my bad beat on replay in my head.