TWG XXIII: Assault on France! Victor E. to Humans!

[HansSky]

This is my defense in a conversation with Guido.

NotSoFarOff (3:15:46 PM): OK
NotSoFarOff (3:15:53 PM): MY HEAD IS GOING TO EXPLODE
NotSoFarOff (3:15:57 PM): TWG.
NotSoFarOff (3:16:20 PM): Please please tell me that you think Afro and I are human.
ElSoyokaze is idle at 3:19:07 PM.
ElSoyokaze is no longer idle at 3:20:28 PM.
ElSoyokaze (3:22:50 PM): I believe the burden is on you to convince me of that. I can't say you've done a good job so far.
NotSoFarOff (3:23:15 PM): Come on.
NotSoFarOff (3:23:26 PM): Does it make sense for us to be wolves?
NotSoFarOff (3:23:32 PM): Considering what happened.
NotSoFarOff (3:23:43 PM): We put ourselves out in the open on day 1.
NotSoFarOff (3:23:51 PM): And then wolf one of our own?
ElSoyokaze (3:23:55 PM): Out of desperation only...
NotSoFarOff (3:23:58 PM): If we fuck up there's 1 wolf left.
NotSoFarOff (3:24:18 PM): But wouldn't a smart wolf just let me die?
ElSoyokaze (3:24:22 PM): Where does the "and then wolf one of our own" come from?
ElSoyokaze (3:25:37 PM): Kilga or dAnce could have been your partner.
NotSoFarOff (3:25:40 PM): 3 wolves left.
NotSoFarOff (3:25:45 PM): Kilga and dAnce were partners.
ElSoyokaze (3:25:51 PM): Oh.
NotSoFarOff (3:25:54 PM): So says eb, god of lynching humans
ElSoyokaze (3:25:55 PM): This I didn't know.
ElSoyokaze (3:26:25 PM): Regardless, order matters here.
ElSoyokaze (3:27:06 PM): Wolfing matt might not have been a bad idea when it came, but circumstances forced y'all to come out on Day 1.
ElSoyokaze (3:27:20 PM): Of course, it doesn't make sense for y'all to wolf Qreepy.
NotSoFarOff (3:27:27 PM): Wolfing a wolf night 1?
NotSoFarOff (3:27:33 PM): Come on.
NotSoFarOff (3:27:50 PM): And Afro probably would've just let me die so he could save himself.
ElSoyokaze (3:28:09 PM): That doesn't convince me of anything.
NotSoFarOff (3:28:25 PM): Everybody know that me and Afro are connected now.
NotSoFarOff (3:28:33 PM): May we be masons or wolves, we're connected.
ElSoyokaze (3:28:40 PM): Granted.
NotSoFarOff (3:28:52 PM): So if we get lynched, we get lynched together.
NotSoFarOff (3:28:55 PM): Package deal.
NotSoFarOff (3:29:04 PM): Is that a smart thing for wolves to do?
ElSoyokaze (3:29:44 PM): If you can convince people that you're human, yeah. But it seems that that isn't happening.
ElSoyokaze (3:30:03 PM): It's putting all your eggs in one basket.
NotSoFarOff (3:30:10 PM): Which isn't smart!
ElSoyokaze (3:30:17 PM): Who says?
NotSoFarOff (3:30:24 PM): And THEN wolfing one of our own just to make the game more challenging?
NotSoFarOff (3:30:28 PM): It's not practical.
ElSoyokaze (3:31:37 PM): Like I said earlier, order matters. Wolfing one of your own wouldn't have seemed bad because you didn't know you would have to come out as partners.
NotSoFarOff (3:31:51 PM): Ok.
NotSoFarOff (3:31:59 PM): So we only need to worry about night 1.
NotSoFarOff (3:32:07 PM): Why the hell would we wolf one of our own night 1?
NotSoFarOff (3:32:15 PM): Why would anybody do it?
NotSoFarOff (3:32:20 PM): Nobody has ever done it before.
ElSoyokaze (3:32:22 PM): To get in good with eb.
NotSoFarOff (3:32:30 PM): HOW?
ElSoyokaze (3:32:31 PM): Possibly extract information from him.
ElSoyokaze (3:33:57 PM): Hell if I know; I've never been one to try and pull information, but there are plenty of others who could.
NotSoFarOff (3:34:20 PM): Neither do I.
NotSoFarOff (3:34:52 PM): I can't see any reason why somebody would wolf their own to start the game.
NotSoFarOff (3:35:10 PM): Starting the game unbalanced is not a good thing.
ElSoyokaze (3:35:39 PM): But if the game is already looking imbalanced in the humans' favor, even I would consider sacrificing one to rebalance the game.
ElSoyokaze (3:35:49 PM): And I'm not one to lightly sacrifice a team member.
NotSoFarOff (3:36:11 PM): Yeah right.
NotSoFarOff (3:36:20 PM): Like a wolf would kill their own for the good of the game.
ElSoyokaze (3:36:41 PM): chardish tried.
ElSoyokaze (3:36:52 PM): It's not 100% impractical.
NotSoFarOff (3:36:56 PM): For the good of his game.
NotSoFarOff (3:36:59 PM): Not THE game.
NotSoFarOff (3:37:45 PM): Besides, nothing is ever 100% impractical in TWG.
NotSoFarOff (3:37:59 PM): But can we agree that matt being a wolf is a stupid idea?
ElSoyokaze (3:38:37 PM): It's risky.
ElSoyokaze (3:38:40 PM): Very risky.
NotSoFarOff (3:38:58 PM): The positives are greatly outweighed by the negatives.
ElSoyokaze (3:39:00 PM): But if it could be pulled off, it would likely help out the wolves a lot.
NotSoFarOff (3:40:41 PM): But can we move on and agree that matt was not a wolf?
ElSoyokaze (3:42:19 PM): Man, FUCK!
ElSoyokaze (3:42:31 PM): I got to talking to you and forgot my pizza was in the oven.
ElSoyokaze (3:42:37 PM): Anyway.
ElSoyokaze (3:43:05 PM): I'm not putting it past you two to wolf Matt.
NotSoFarOff (3:43:14 PM): Damnit.
NotSoFarOff (3:43:15 PM): Fine.
NotSoFarOff (3:43:25 PM): Let's PRETEND that matt wasn't a wolf, okay?
ElSoyokaze (3:43:33 PM): Okay.
NotSoFarOff (3:44:07 PM): After Afro and I are out in the open, why would we wolf one of our own?
ElSoyokaze (3:45:14 PM): (phone)
NotSoFarOff (3:45:48 PM): k
ElSoyokaze (3:52:18 PM): Okay.
ElSoyokaze (3:52:28 PM): Again, I go back to the eggs in a basket idea.
ElSoyokaze (3:52:46 PM): If it fails, you're boned. If it succeeds, you're scot free
ElSoyokaze (3:53:30 PM): And, by the way, I only have a couple more minutes before I have to leave town.
NotSoFarOff (3:53:47 PM): How long will you be gone?
ElSoyokaze (3:53:57 PM): Until tomorrow afternoon.
ElSoyokaze (3:54:06 PM): ~3ish.
NotSoFarOff (3:54:48 PM): Ok.
NotSoFarOff (3:54:54 PM): I'd like to go more in depth
NotSoFarOff (3:54:57 PM): But since you have to go...
NotSoFarOff (3:55:22 PM): Do you think that all the shit has gone down makes Afro and I more wolfish or human...ish?
ElSoyokaze (3:55:48 PM): With the way y'all've been posting, I have to say wolfish.
ElSoyokaze (3:56:09 PM): And, mind you, I'm not in on a lot of the shit going on in the game.
NotSoFarOff (3:56:24 PM): And you do know that when we get lynched, the humans have one fuck up left to lose.
ElSoyokaze (3:56:41 PM): If we're wrong about y'all, yes.
NotSoFarOff (3:57:17 PM): Are you willing to risk the game because you're semi-certain we're wolves?
ElSoyokaze (3:58:27 PM): Considering I don't really have a better lead on anyone else and lynching someone I have no certainty is a wolf would leave us in almost the same position, yes.
NotSoFarOff (3:59:30 PM): Wrong.
NotSoFarOff (3:59:37 PM): Because nobody else comes as a package deal.
ElSoyokaze (4:01:20 PM): ? Say we lynch a human tonight. Same as lynching Afro (humoring you, of course, by assuming you're human). Next day we lynch another human c/o the package deal. That's one human lynching difference.
ElSoyokaze (4:01:40 PM): Which is the "almost" case to which I referred.
ElSoyokaze (4:02:57 PM): But I really need to go.
ElSoyokaze (4:03:01 PM): I might be on AIM at home.
ElSoyokaze (4:03:04 PM): Later.
NotSoFarOff (4:03:16 PM): I won't be around until 9ish tonight.
NotSoFarOff (4:03:18 PM): Later.

[talisman]

hmmm. thinking things over while shaving there's still some stuff I want to consider. neutral vote on nforcer for now.

hans I still want to see that ranked list buddy. In fact I think it would be a good idea for everyone to post one. What could it hurt? (Mine is at the bottom of page 13).

edit: everyone but eb, of course. wouldn't want to accidentally reveal stuff.

[nickadeemus]

I wasn't all too sure about Afro/Hans coming out the way they did in the first place, and since then suspicions keep piling up. I'm going to trust that eb's evaluation of the logs and chats are true.

[talisman]

Also, afro could you post your log with ld from when he asked you in the chat (the section of which I already posted) to IM him? I know you use Gaim and auto-log. Thanks.

[Afrobean]

Ha!

Ok, firstly:

Afro sent me some logs, too, but he keeps being like "oh, I guess I'm missing 3 hours of logs. Whoops!" We all know logs don't just disappear

No. I never said that.

1. (21:21:07) evilbutterfly: Logs with Hans, now.
   (21:21:11) evilbutterfly: PM them to me.
   (21:21:21) Afrobean from FFR: why not get them from him
   (21:21:23) evilbutterfly: PM logs with any other significant players, too, while you're at it.
   (21:21:26) Afrobean from FFR: PS wtf on my gaim name
   (21:21:27) evilbutterfly: He doesn't log, he says.
   (21:21:29) Afrobean from FFR: you never do that
   (21:21:34) Afrobean from FFR: ok I'll send all I got
   (21:21:36) evilbutterfly: gaim never because this is where you log shtuff
   (21:21:38) Afrobean from FFR: which should be everything
   (21:21:54) evilbutterfly: PM it so I don't lose.
   (21:21:59) Afrobean from FFR: ok
   (21:22:10) evilbutterfly: Take more than 30 seconds and I'll have you lynched.
   (21:22:19) Afrobean from FFR: ok
   (21:22:36) Afrobean from FFR: I have three days worth
   (21:22:47) evilbutterfly: yum
   (21:22:49) Afrobean from FFR: no way I could fake all those as fast as I'll get them anyway
   (21:22:57) evilbutterfly: Indeed.
   (21:24:17) Afrobean from FFR: oh never mind I guess gaim is just dumb and put empty days in the log
   (21:24:21) Afrobean from FFR: there's only one days worth
   (21:24:34) Afrobean from FFR: from 10:30 AM to 11:30 AM

What happened was I looked at the log dialog box and it showed 3 days worth of conversations. I clicked on them and all were empty except one. I think what it is is if you open an IM window for that person (which is how I access the logs. I'm sure there's an easier way, but I access them through the IM window) it adds an empty log to that day.

Everything else said against me is the kind of evidence that can swing both ways. I love that you guys give me enough credit to think I'd be so bold as a wolf, but if you look back to RECENT games where I was a wolf, I was anything BUT bold. However if you look back to recent games of me being green, you'll find that I'm often bold as a green.

And yes, I realize that I could just be cashing in on behavioral stuff like LD has in recent games, but I really have nothing else.

Ok, now for the stuff I've been waiting all day to post. I now feel that Tass/his partner are human. This of course leaves the third mason team+one widow for the wolves.

Please note: I feel I know who Tass's partner is and after pondering this, that is what made me decide Tass is probably not a wolf.

Also, I feel I now know the 3 wolves left. I feel that Qreepy was a wolf (and thereby his partner), Guido, and his partner.

Why do I think this? Well during the night phase, many of us were in the chat and the idea was thrown around that 4 wolfes alive would make us golden, but if there was just one wolf killed, it'd throw a monkey wrench in our plans. I think that the wolves decided to off Qreepy in the last second there knowing that if they didn't, we'd have three sure humans at the beginning of the day.

Why Guido? His vote at the end of last day looks like a distance vote. Why the vote on Guido? Because even if I knew the pairs of whom I spoke above, I wouldn't want to reveal them.

[Tasselfoot]

Talisman referenced my list... i closed my window with him, don't feel like finding the long. pretty sure this is in the exact same order: afro/hans/nforcer/tps/ld/nick/guido/talisman/fish/eb

[Afrobean]

Also, afro could you post your log with ld from when he asked you in the chat (the section of which I already posted) to IM him? I know you use Gaim and auto-log. Thanks.

1. (20:46:19) Afrobean: what's up?
   (20:46:23) lightdarkness: I don't trust asselfoot
   (20:46:30) lightdarkness: when was it revealed that Kilga and dance were partners
   (20:46:31) Afrobean: why not?
   (20:46:37) Afrobean: dance said so I think
   (20:46:37) lightdarkness: He's giving me a bad vibe
   (20:46:39) lightdarkness: when
   (20:47:08) Afrobean: I know what you mean
   (20:47:11) Afrobean: tass is different
   (20:47:45) lightdarkness: well, I thought for a second
   (20:47:58) lightdarkness: maybe the wolves wanted to make it so the partner of dance would get lynched as a wolf
   (20:47:59) lightdarkness: but that doesn't work
   (20:48:00) lightdarkness: nvm
   (20:50:39) lightdarkness: oh man
   (20:50:41) lightdarkness: I'm awesome
   (20:51:13) Afrobean from FFR: why is that?
   (20:51:18) lightdarkness: false positive
   (20:52:05) Afrobean: ha I hate when that happens
   (20:52:15) Afrobean: well it'd probably be nice in some situations

I think LD thought he was onto something when he really wasn't.

[nickadeemus]

A suspicions list was wanted:
Afro/Hans/LD/nforcer/Guido/tps/talis/tass/fish/eb

[Afrobean]

OH OH WHAT'S THIS GAME? CAN I PLAY?!

guido/talis/tps/fish/nforcer/tass/LD/nick/eb/Afro/Hans

Warranted to change if I manage to figure out who the third pair is.

[Tasselfoot]

I think LD thought he was onto something when he really wasn't.

That only happened to him, what... 4 times in the chat last night?

[Afrobean]

I think LD thought he was onto something when he really wasn't.

That only happened to him, what... 4 times in the chat last night?

Yea, LD was a little out of it or something. I have no idea where he was going with in that convo besides that he didn't trust Tass for some reason.

[nforcer06164]

Okay, since it's being heralded as a good idea, my suspicion list:
Afro/Hans/Tass/TPS/nick/LD/Guido/Talis/Fish/eb

I still want to know who Qreepy's partner was because I'm fairly confident that he's a wolf. My suspicion chart would radically change if I knew. Much of the middle people are random. The last three and first three are pretty solid.

The more people talk about it, the more suspicious Afro and Hans seem to be. If we're confident on Afro and Hans, it's better to go after them first rather than the widows. But we can only go after the two systematically if we're ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN.

Now that I think back, the only thing Afro would gain by revealing Hans in the thread is looking absolutely human. Now, that gets me to thinking whether it's true or reverse psychology. It's my fault for being so close-minded about its integrity to think it through a little bit.

Oh, and did anybody notice that Afro's list is for the most part dramatically different then the rest that were posted?

[Afrobean]

Ok, it's now clear that the majority of you ARE stupid.

I revealed Hans as my partner to save someone I knew was human. You're saying you'd sit back and let your mason buddy die without saying anything? It's not like I could say "hey guys I don't think we should be lynching hans" I had to act drastically if I had any chance of saving him.

Also, if you guys lynch either myself or hans, I hope the wolves win. They deserve it with you retards killing your own for no reason. It's plainly obvious that eb's vote was a pressure vote more than anything, not an indication that you guys should insta me.

PS

did anybody notice that Afro's list is for the most part dramatically different then the rest that were posted?

Of course. I'm the only one thinking for myself it seems.

[HansSky]

Fine, talisman. Have it your way.

Tass/tps/talisman/nick/nforcer/fish/guido/ld/eb/afro/hans

[talisman]

thanks for posting that log afro. either it's masterfully faked or quite genuine, and it eases my suspicions on the connection between you/hans and ld. why does your name change on that one line though?

also the third pair is an interesting idea I'd considered but dismissed. I assumed eb had good reason to eliminate them in the first place, but perhaps not. I'd caution against speculating as to who they might be publically though, as they're sure to be top targets for the wolves (along with the guardian of course) since the wolves want to avoid killing previously widowed players.