TWG XXIII: Assault on France! Victor E. to Humans!

[Afrobean]

nickadeemus.

If I recall, wolves tend to talk about the night 1 kill in the way that nick just did.

[lightdarkness]

so are we going to eb or what? I'm getting really bored :'(

[Afrobean]

so are we going to eb or what?

I just did. eb seems a bit sketchy, but I really don't think that the lone green could be known to be dead by the wolves and I don't believe that ANYONE in this game would risk a 1/12 on the lone green having been the night 1 kill.

[nforcer06164]

nickadeemus.

If I recall, wolves tend to talk about the night 1 kill in the way that nick just did.

Are you really sure about that? Because I was going to point out the exact same thing: matt was a confusion kill (or even a safe kill, I thought), and he was not the lone green. I thought that was already a given by now, which is why I did not post it. Remember that nick is new at this game, so, he's going to point out everything he sees and get involved as much as he can. Give him a bit more credit that that; if he is a wolf, I think his three other partners would give him a bit of guidance for his posts.

[mattc16]

Ah well, good luck guys!

[nforcer06164]

eb seems a bit sketchy

• insanelikeafish: afro is rubbing me the wrong way
  nforcer06164: Afro may still be sore from not being chosen as a host...
  nforcer06164: if you've checked the Dumbass nominations lately.
  insanelikeafish: yeah
  insanelikeafish: i saw that
  insanelikeafish: haha
  nforcer06164: whoa, wait.
  nforcer06164: I just realized something afro said.
  nforcer06164: eb seems a bit sketchy,
  nforcer06164: uh, how?
  insanelikeafish: yeah
  insanelikeafish: that's what did it for me

I just noticed Afro's statement after talking to fish (he's not my mason partner, by the way). How could eb be sketchy? There's almost zero chance for eb to be a wolf.

I'm also going to try to patch us a few loose ends we may have here... After going over Talisman's post, I realize I must have misread it. But, I also realized that having a "back-up plan" by including matt's partner is a VERY bad idea. Though it's unlikely, a wolf could come to eb privately over AIM and state that he is the widowed green, whether or not a green or wolf was actually wolfed. That is, if only the wolf goes to eb, he has wiggled his way into the alliance. It could also happen that the widowed green does go to eb, but the a wolf comes back saying, "Hell no, I'm the widowed green." Chaos ensues. Which is why an alliance other than what we have with the masons and guardian+eb may be problematic.

Remember, I'm only putting out possibilities here. I discussed this with fish, and he believes that it's highly unlikely, but I think a wolf trying something new like this could only be an advantage. It may sound stupid to some of you, but just think of what my intentions are here.

[FishFishRevolution]

FishFishRevolution: of course we have lying wolves
nforcer06164: see, even if the widowed green does come out to eb, what happens if a wolf comes to eb by saying, "aw hell no, I'm the widowed green."?
FishFishRevolution: right
FishFishRevolution: i'm saying
nforcer06164: then we have an even bigger problem
FishFishRevolution: why in HELL would they do that
FishFishRevolution: no that isn't a problem at all
FishFishRevolution: a wolf would never put himself on the spot light
FishFishRevolution: because we either kill the widowed mason or him
FishFishRevolution: 50/50 there
FishFishRevolution: and even if he's not killed Day 1
FishFishRevolution: there's cardflipping
FishFishRevolution: (isn't there?)
nforcer06164: let me check...
FishFishRevolution: no
FishFishRevolution: there isn't
FishFishRevolution: but there is a psychic
FishFishRevolution: so same thing
nforcer06164: no there isn't.
FishFishRevolution: wait
nforcer06164: there's a guardian.
FishFishRevolution: oh you're right
nforcer06164: that's the only blue.
nforcer06164: that's why it would work.
FishFishRevolution: still
FishFishRevolution: we could kill them both
FishFishRevolution: no biggie
FishFishRevolution: i stand by my conviction that no sane wolf would put himself in that much shit
nforcer06164: I'm not saying it would happen
nforcer06164: I'm saying it is a possibility.
12:40 PM
FishFishRevolution: and i'm saying it's a very low possibility
FishFishRevolution: so low that i'm not worried about it
nforcer06164: fair enough.

Just to elaborate on why it wouldn't work.

[blahblah18]

silly kill except for the idea that kept being floated around pregame of a break being a pure randomization of people killed each night. I'm not entirely sure of A) this backup plan by talisman (as brought up by others) B) the need for it (shouldn't the guardian jstu be guarding EB?)

That said, there's not too much more to go on right now until people say more and try something

[nforcer06164]

I was also thinking about this... blah mentioned that the guardian should be guarding eb, but what's the difference between guarding him and someone else? I mean, of course guarding a confirmed human is a good idea, but it's just the same alliance as any other one because we all have disconnected alliances of 2 people right now. If the guardian happens to successfully guard someone else, then we potentially have a four person alliance. I'm not saying that the guardian should not guard eb. In fact, it's highly unlikely that this scenario could happen. I'm just throwing out an idea here.

[blahblah18]

you know what, thinking about it, I go back to ADVOCATING RELEASING ALL THE TEAMS IN THE FORUM.
The harm is that theoreticalyl the wolves can not kiill 2 people of the same team .. A. that is an incredibly small chance of happening, and not the most devastating to overall utility anyways
vs
We all have tne knowledge of al lthe teams and can see how epople interact and if we spot a wolf, we all can base it fof the character of the other person.

To reiterate, I am now STRONGLY for us all posting our teams in publicly

[blahblah18]

also just to throw it out there, a vote for talisman because he should have realized his plan was flawed that he posted in forum, and combined wit the fact that he posted the obv strat of killing a fellow wolf (I had thought of it too, i'm sure several others did), then with a brand new player dying, no one's broguht up the fact that in theory they still could have done that plan, although doubtful. Just another reason why I'd want everyone coming out,

If we believe that mattc WASN't a wolf, have EB pair mattc's dead partner with the guardian, to keep the guardian anonymous.

[FishFishRevolution]

nforcer06164: somebody summarize advantages and disadvantages.
nforcer06164: so I can understand this.
FishFishRevolution: going to eb is overall safer
nforcer06164: how?
lightdarkness: BECAUSE THE WOLVES DON'T KNOW THE PAIRS
nickadeemus: power in numbers
FishFishRevolution: it keeps the wolves out of the know while still forcing them to reveal their partner
lightdarkness: THE LESS THE WOLVES KNOW
lightdarkness: THE BETTER
lightdarkness: IT'S NOT @#^@#%@ ROCKET SCIENCE
lightdarkness: sorry, i'm angry =P

[lightdarkness]

It's really not rocket science

Everyone go to EB, and EB only. Do NOT post your pairs in the thread, that is just retarded.

[Afrobean]

eb seems a bit sketchy

• insanelikeafish: afro is rubbing me the wrong way
  nforcer06164: Afro may still be sore from not being chosen as a host...
  nforcer06164: if you've checked the Dumbass nominations lately.
  insanelikeafish: yeah
  insanelikeafish: i saw that
  insanelikeafish: haha
  nforcer06164: whoa, wait.
  nforcer06164: I just realized something afro said.
  nforcer06164: eb seems a bit sketchy,
  nforcer06164: uh, how?
  insanelikeafish: yeah
  insanelikeafish: that's what did it for me

I just noticed Afro's statement after talking to fish (he's not my mason partner, by the way). How could eb be sketchy? There's almost zero chance for eb to be a wolf.

I know him much better than all of you combined. I'm just saying that he seems a bit off, but it could likely be because of his "special role," especially since there's almost no way in hell he's red.

[talisman]

blah quit being retarded.

read tass' response to afro's initial question why we shouldn't come out in public: IT REVEALS THE GUARDIAN. NO ONE COME OUT IN PUBLIC. If you come out in public you're just eliminating possibilities for the wolves.

about a backup plan: I trust eb at this point but I don't see the harm in having one. It's up to eb... if he thinks there's still a strong chance that matt's partner is a wolf and that they wolfed matt intentionally (why they would do that AFTER I sent that pm out would be retarded... they know it's not going to work now) then I guess he shouldn't do it.

To everyone speculating "well what if a wolf comes to eb and says he was matt's partner." If the wolves are that dumb this game will be over real fast... once everyone goes to eb it's simple process of elimination. You either have a partner or you don't. If a wolf tries to fake it, not only does he put himself at risk, he puts anothe wolf at risk because matt's partner isn't going to pretend to be partners with a wolf. Therefore we would have 3 people, 2 of whom are wolves, and in 3 days 2 wolves are gone, minimum.

So to summarize, the only way matt's partner is a wolf and therefore no backup plan of the kind I described should be implemented is if the wolves STILL decided to wolf one of their own even after my pm which made it clear it wouldn't work.