jTWG LXIII. Good Morning Benjamin

[Krauthammer]

Re: jTWG LXIII. Good Morning Benjamin

General reminder that phase ends in seven hours and half.

[James May]

Re: jTWG LXIII. Good Morning Benjamin

How about on the next Night phase (if you can seer during the night, if not the following Day phase), we have the legit seer seer either you or rzr, that way if either of you two comes out as green, we know that the one who declared the other red is a phony. Of course it doesn't look good for dAnceguy right now, but if he does make it to the next night phase, it would be good to test out his claim and see who is lying at this point already. Still keeping vote on gun until I know for sure that Pete's the phony seer.

[DarkManticoreX2]

Re: jTWG LXIII. Good Morning Benjamin

How about on the next Night phase (if you can seer during the night, if not the following Day phase), we have the legit seer seer either you or rzr, that way if either of you two comes out as green, we know that the one who declared the other red is a phony. Of course it doesn't look good for dAnceguy right now, but if he does make it to the next night phase, it would be good to test out his claim and see who is lying at this point already. Still keeping vote on gun until I know for sure that Pete's the phony seer.

More then likely, the coroner's result from lynching danceguy/rzr will confirm our suspicions.

I'm willing to lynch Danceguy because I don't see the wolves gambling on 50/50 chances. If the wolf was seer #1, he'd need balls (and luck) of steel. What happens when the other two seers come out to me and we get the coroner's result of the person we lynched and one of the seers seered?

We immediatley confirm the seer who's seeree we lynched as drunk/non drunk. I know what I seer, so I then can confirm if we have 2 drunks/ 2 legit Seers. We then just have to sort out which one not to trust. It's easy to find a wolf here. If we have two drunks, we just have the confirmed seer seer one of them, and instant find and wolf down. If we have two legits it's a little tougher, but not much. The wolf will be found out and lynched day 2.


I doubt Seer #3 would also be a wolf too. Does it make sense for a wolf to seer a blue and then come out to them? Not really, the wolves would just kill the blue the following night, avoid suspicion and keep distance.


Seer #2 doesn't have a thing going for them except a red claim, but the problem here is we already pretty much know seer #3 has to be the "real" seer, so Seer #2's claim must be drunk (meaning why lynch rzr?), in addition to seer #1's.

This is why I think lynching seer #2 (danceguy) is the correct idea.

[rzr]

that's the name we needed. as a green, and with pricks like Vic in the game, I'm not entirely worried about my life. so lynch me if you.think it'll make a difference, afterwards you have your wolf. or today we can lynch danceguy and save time and lives. any questions about my validity, pm me


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[Sage of the Forest]

Re: jTWG LXIII. Good Morning Benjamin

Danceguy. Manticore has me convinced.

[Sage of the Forest]

Re: jTWG LXIII. Good Morning Benjamin

Also, I think we would push for an insta.

[Little Bear]

Re: jTWG LXIII. Good Morning Benjamin

Danceguy

He's also been acting strange so that adds to it.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: jTWG LXIII. Good Morning Benjamin

Not a good choice, Manti.

I know I'm a seer. Even if I survive this phase, I assume I'll get wolfed Night 2.

From my perspective, there are two possibilities here: either "seer #1" or "seer #3" is a wolf. I highly doubt the wolf seer would reveal to the coroner, so that would make seer #1 the liar. Makes perfect sense to me. With too many seer claims, the only way to be certain about who's who is to lynch someone who was seered and get the results from the coroner. What better way to prevent this strategy from working than to claim you seered the alliance head?

I don't think it makes too much of a difference though. The odds that the drunk seer actually seers a blue and gets back a correct blue reading are very low.
(3/11) * (1/3) = (1/11) = 9.09%

It could happen, but we're talking about lower chances then just coming out blindly to someone and them being the role you need to find.

One problem: you already know that seer #3 looked at the coroner. The probability of a drunken seer getting a blue result, given that the seer looked at a blue, is 33%.

Coming out blindly to someone and predicting the person as a blue isn't realistic, because the risk would be far too high. A drunken seer revealing to a confirmed blue is risk-free.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: jTWG LXIII. Good Morning Benjamin

rzr, Manti gave out your name, so you're either a red or a green. Better you than me.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: jTWG LXIII. Good Morning Benjamin

I won't be available until shortly before the day ends... and I don't have high hopes. The identities of the other blues will almost definitely be in the wrong hands. This game will come down to logic and intuition. Examine all events closely, and investigate thoroughly. Good luck.

[James May]

Re: jTWG LXIII. Good Morning Benjamin

changing vote to dAnceguy. Sorry Pete, I mean looking through this, it is the most logical choice at this moment. If you get lynched and you do come out as a seer, and if someone seers Manti on the next phase and comes out red, then Obviously both the seer and coroner would know and convince the general people to lynch Manti on Day 2. But seeing that according to Manti's posts on the seer claims, all of the "seers" has used their seering powers for this phase, which means that most likely they'll have to wait until next phase.

Looking at the possibilities, there are three at the moment:

Best Case Scenario: You get lynch'd, Coroner receives results that you're red and the seer confirms to the coroner that Manti is green, which means that seer #1 and seer #3 are the real deal.

??? Scenario: You get lynch'd, you're red, and seer gets result that Manti is red, which means that the Coroner and the other Seers are screwed on the night phase.

Worst Case Scenario: You get lynch'd, you're blue, and seer results that Manti is red. Same result applies to the ??? scenario for the blues.

So in a nutshell, there's two possible cases where the blues are screwed and one where it goes in our favour. Does it sound like a gamble instead of lynching rzr? It does but going from a logical standpoint, if we do lynch rzr and he comes out red, it would mean that you're red as well and it would mean that there's a slight possibility that we're one step closer in giving the reds another win. For the sake of it, it is safer to lynch you than rzr.

[DarkManticoreX2]

Re: jTWG LXIII. Good Morning Benjamin

To be honest, I can arrange the seers so that the seer problem is 100% cleared up by the end of Night 2, but that particular plan relys on luck hoping that the wolves don't hit a seer that's not dance.

This isn't just my game. I can solve this problem by lynching Danceguy or by lynching Rzr. I believe danceguy is the wolf. If you believe the same based on the information i've presented then please vote for him.

If you have doubts about lynching a possible seer (It is possible I'm wrong. Unlikely, but possible.) Lynch Rzr. If you find Danceguy convincing, Lynch Rzr. Please make your own decisions as individuals, but make that decision between Rzr and dance.

[rzr]

??? Scenario: You get lynch'd, you're red, and seer gets result that Manti is red, which means that the Coroner and the other Seers are screwed on the night phase.

honestly this is what I predict. which will probably lead you guys to lynch me tomorrow anyway, then realize its too late lol. but for now.. yeah.


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[Little Bear]

Re: jTWG LXIII. Good Morning Benjamin

It feels like who wants to be a millionaire when someone picks 50/50 then asks the audience

[Gun92]

Re: jTWG LXIII. Good Morning Benjamin

Dance. I used to have this thing for you, but lately, I think we have run our course. I will always love you.