TWG X - DAY 6 - CYPHER DECIPHERD - HUMANS WIN

[HansSky]

EDIT (because it has to be done):
Blah (12:26:34 AM): heh
Blah (12:26:44 AM): i assigned no wolves
Blah (12:26:48 AM): i felt like killing you

OMG I SOLVED THE MYSTERY.

Oh. Well that was easy.


Anyways. On to the topic at hand. Of course, pinning a wolf right now is damn near impossible, so we'll have to wait a bit until everybody posts, and then go from there. Alain, you have good ideas. They should work out pretty well(if all goes as planned, of course). But I really don't have too much to say right now, so I'm going to stop before I start rambling.

[Matthew4444]

While I hate to make accusations so early in the game, I suspect evilbutterfly to be a wolf. This is based on a short AIM conversation I had with him. In the main chat, I made a comment about "I'm gonna go now, but not because I'm sending PMs to blah" (or something like that). EB then contacted me in a separate window about how I should be more careful. He also casually asked if I had a special role. While this didn't seem suspicious at first, I soon realized that it was usually only wolves who got so friendly so early without being certain of roles. So basically, I'm paranoid because someone tried to get me to trust them.

[Tps222]

I doubt the wolves would kill stretchy and try and get people to link her to guido, that's just too obvious, unless they are trying some of alain's triple reverse pyschology stuff. I was in the chat for a while, but most of the chat was just bs'ing around, and really was pointless, though i did see some relations with jurs and stretchy. Right now, i'm going to put a random vote out. Yay for generators. Roopert

[JurseyRider734]

Me and Pander are close because I <3 her, so suspecting me at this point would be a little irrational on your part, buttfly. Anyways, the only person that seemed sketchy to me in the TWG X aim chat was Matt, but I do not have enough conclusive evidence to make a vote just yet.

[eyespewgreekfire]

There really is not much to go on at this point, which everyone has said. I agree with what everyone has said so far about alliance strategy. However, one should be wary of any seer that comes, since it could be the devil. I would say that the seer should find a mason, and then vote in proxy for whoever that mason wants, after giving the mason all seer data. I see nobody suspicious at all as of yet. A noob at this point could go after guido, jursey, or alain, but I believe that they each have a average chance of being human as of now. One thing which I think will help people out in this game is to list all the people that do not post during the previous day. On day 2 (if there are any) I'll post a list of everyone with no posts, if people would be intersted by this.

[mead1]

That would be quite helpful for the slackers eyespew (Namely Me).

Anyway, at this point there is little if anything to put stock in. Matt made a good point that speaks to me: eb might have been attempting to control the two noobs by being a nice guy. However, I feel unless I see evidence otherwise supporting his being a wolf, I think he was just being a nice guy.

Eyespew also pointed out another thing that has thusly went unmentioned: The Devil kinda throws off the safety of an alliance. That stratedgy is no longer nearly as safe, or as reliable.

I think I'm in a bit over my head now

[whorlichan]

Mead: The devil is almost as bad as the Master Wolf was in previous games. He is seered as human, so the alliance might take him in--but he also can't wolf anyone. All he can do is try to convince the wolves that he is in fact the devil, and give them ideas as to who to kill. If they don't believe him, though, they might just kill him.

Matt: EB is attempting to be the missing Tass/Blah of the other games. Assuming he is human, he would naturally want to know if you had a special role so he could involve you in the alliance he's trying to put together. If you go right off the bat and assume he's a wolf, does that mean ANYONE who asks about special roles is a wolf in your eyes?

And Tps...you've played before. You know random votes are bad for the humans. Don't do it. Think of SOMETHING to say and vote for someone based on that, even if it is sketchy evidence.

[evilbutterfly]

Matt, as a newb, I figured it best to advise you on the game. You said you weren't sending PMs to blah, in the midst of a bunch of talk about wolves and special roles needing to send PMs to blah, which would imply that you weren't a special role. But why would anybody in their right mind say such a thing? I took it to mean that you were sending PMs. A wolf wouldn't be stupid enough to announce this (at least, I'd hope not) so I figured I'd contact you about it. If you do have a special role, which may be the case, you need to be MUCH more careful. The Devil may look at you first, or perhaps the wolves will kill you just for insenuating you have a role (unless that special role is that you are a wolf, which is also possible). I'm not trying to "be the missing Tass/Blah," I'm just trying to be helpful to the new-comers.

And so what if I want to know the special roles? We all do. Wolves want to know them to kill them, Humans want to know them so they can form an alliance and weed out the wolves. And of course we all ask in a friendly way. If you force the issue people assume you're a wolf and lynch you.

And Jurs, I wasn't trying to say you were a wolf, I was just pointing out connections. It's all I know how to do on Day 1. I'm vary wary of accusing anyone or doing anything, because more than likely I'll kill a human. I STILL feel bad for lynching Chardish (a mason) in that one game, even though it helped lead to the human victory. The last thing I want is to run out and accuse people and get them killed wrongly.

And whorli's right. Random votes are bad for the humans (I think I said this before, but whatever). We need to continue on in discussion and hopefully somebody will slip up and reveal themselves. Using slight suspicions (as Matt tried to do) in order to provoke a response is one thing, but flat out random voting accomplishes nothing at all.

And as far as suspicions go, the only person who strikes me as slightly suspicious is mead1. It's already been established that it wasn't somebody closed to Panda that did it, or at least that they didn't kill her just because of being close, but mead1 said it was possible anyway. Not much to go on, but it's just a thought, and definitly not worthy of a vote.

[Afrobean]

OK, all I really have to say that a double or triple reverse psychology would be PERFECT right now. You all are saying "oh it couldn't have been Guido because no one would be that stupid." Did you ever stop to think thta maybe Guido is a wolf and he was counting on you all responding like that?

Not saying I'm especially suspicious of Guido, it just pisses me off that you don't think a wolf would pull double reverse psychology when it is an almost fool proof plan.

I've got nothing right now, but a little bit of suspicion on the newbs. I'm sure that at least one of them is a wolf.

[JurseyRider734]

I can't believe that the double reverse psychology from the Matrix TWG I proposed is still being used. -_-

[CypherToorima]

I agree with afrobean. I don't suspect anyone right now, but everyone is like "let's rule out guido and alain and jurs" and if even one of them was a wolf, it would be perfect for them (the wolves, that is). But as of now, no one is coming up on my wolf-dar (or perhaps...gangster-dar)

[CypherToorima]

Also, jurs I came up with that a long time ago, even though I was wrong.

[Matthew4444]

Maybe I should clear something up. I'm not as much suspicious of EB for asking if I had a special role, I'm more paranoid of how friendly he was getting. From reading the postgame of Infiltration it's clear that easily placed trust (in blah at least) is an easy way to get manipulated by wolves. I guess I just overreacted, though.

[GuidoHunter]

@Afro: Of course we can't completely rule out obscenely complicated reverse-psychology tactics, but I'm going to give some credit to the wolves.

Recall from my last post when I said that it wouldn't be worth it for the wolves to try such a tactic. Night 1 gives them a practically free kill. Why waste that on such a risky strategy? Why try what's been tried before?

Reverse psychology is a fine tactic for the wolves to use, as it's worked once and almost did again on night one. Double reverse psychology just goes over the cliff. If double works, then triple or quadruple could, too, and then you've got yourself thinking in an endless circle. As a wolf, I wouldn't try anything to possibly put suspicion on me on Day 1, as it's a free day.

C'mon, Afro, give me some credit. I'm not asking you to believe that I'm a human from this, but killing stretchy and then putting myself into the open to try to get the humans to do something that's hurt them before in the off chance that I could convince everyone of my humanity on Day 1 is just a bit farfetched.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Afrobean]

C'mon, Afro, give me some credit. I'm not asking you to believe that I'm a human from this, but killing stretchy and then putting myself into the open to try to get the humans to do something that's hurt them before in the off chance that I could convince everyone of my humanity on Day 1 is just a bit farfetched.

I don't think it's farfetch'd at all (lawl pokemon). Imagine that you are indeed a wolf. You would be in the BEST possible position as a wolf, with everyone saying "oh he wouldn't do that if he was a wolf." Double reverse psychology is not as complex as you make it sound.

By the way, just so I'm 100% clear on this- I'm sort of playing devil's advocate here. I don't have any more suspicion on Guido than on anyone else. I'm only fighting for this, because it's stupid for you all to accept Guido as human for something that a wolf very easily could have done.