TWG X - DAY 6 - CYPHER DECIPHERD - HUMANS WIN

RE: TWG X - An Offer Refused - Night 1

The next morning the town council reconvened to continue the discussion about how best to remedy their current problem, however, after waiting 15 minutes, StretchyPanda was still not in attendance. The council decided to go to her house. As they approached to enter, they saw that the door was already unlocked. calling out to her yielded no response, so the townspeople searched every room. And in her bed, there she was, stabbed in the chest, with a note through the knife that only said "That was the first--- Don Mafioso" After close examination of the house, they saw there was absolutely no sign of any forced entry in any way. As the council pondered this mystery, someone stepped up and said, "It must be one of us, we are the only ones with keys to all the houses in the village" There was an initial outrage, but after much heated discussion, it was concluded that this indeed must have been the case. So the decision of the council became that they must stop any detracting forces from within the council before they all wound up dead. So now council, it is upon your shoulders. Weed out the members within you that are working for the Don and bring them to swift justice.

You ahve 48 hours to make your decision and this will lock at 11:59 EST (NOT FFR) time Tuesday night.

RE: TWG X - An Offer Refused - Night 1

By the way, for all the people that didn't really read my campaign speech.
The Devil is a character that is human, but works for the wolves. Devil wins if wolves win, humans do NOT need to kill devil to win. Devil looks at a person each night and I tell them their role. If the seer sees the devil, he comes up human. I think that's about it. Ask me if there are any more misunderstandings or confusions.

you BASTARDS! Her death will not go unavenged...

--Guido

RE: TWG X - An Offer Refused - Night 1

Argh, time for that part of the game we all hate: Day 1. And now, I'll ask the question I always ask: why stretchy? I know she has "connections" with Guido, and from the chat she seems to be friends with Jurs. Of course, it's usually not about connections, even though I always ask that.

Oh, speaking of chat: aim:gochat?roomname=TWG+X Come and join. Interesting things get said.

And yeah, to you new people: don't vote right away. That's bad for the humans. Refrain from voting so discussion can go on and wolves can be found. I dunno about these two newbies' TWG experience, so I figured I'd just give a word of advice.

First thoughts: Stretchy is SMART. But unlikely to be guardianed with some more advanced players in the lot. She's like Roopert was in an earlier game: A good kill for the wolves, because it's hard for us to gather much information from her death.

Suspecting Guido is pointless; he's much too intelligent to go after his own girlfriend night 1. I wish the wolves weren't so smart, I would have liked to have an easy vote on day 1.

>O!!!

I'm going to assume I died because of what Whorli said -- that I'm smart, and not just because the wolves were like, "OMG THIS WILL MAKE HER BOYFRIEND LOOK SUSPICIOUS."

Sigh. Have fun. =(

EDIT (because it has to be done):
Blah (12:26:34 AM): heh
Blah (12:26:44 AM): i assigned no wolves
Blah (12:26:48 AM): i felt like killing you

OMG I SOLVED THE MYSTERY.

That's what I was thinking, but there's also Jurs. Plus, I was hoping maybe a stupid wolf newb would come along and claim Guido did it so we'd have somebody to vote for, which is why I didn't say that earlier.

And stretchy, we all know you're smart. Especially when you're a wolf with alain. Oh that was a good game.

I can't believe that either one dumb wolf would be able to make that move with the consent of two other veteran wolves or that there are three dumb moves.

Looking at this from a wolf's perspective, killing stretchy and trying to pin it on me would be far too wasteful. Getting me lynched wouldn't (well, shouldn't) work, so why waste the free kill?

The only person who I can see having an actual interest in killing her is alain, simply because they worked closely and she might be able to figure him out, but as of right now that's no reason to vote for him. I stay voteless.

--Guido

To further emphasize the point

We all remember what happened when Kefit was killed Night 1 and everyone said "omg kilga did it", right?

Yeah that worked out SO GREAT FOR THE HUMANS

Hehe, yeah guido, I wolfed stretch so that you couldn't talk to her for the remainder of the game, meanwhile I can rack up the brownie points Yep yep, well blah said that he would redo the roles if anything was unfair, so we can be certain that there is at least one compitent person on the wolf team, and not three fools. This being said I think we can assume that the strategy used was to wolf someone not connected to any of the wolves. Stretch is linked to a few people, but probably not one of them are wolves. It would obviously be foolish to vote guido, because that would be TOO obvious. I think by the same logic, you can remove any idea that my connections with stretch place me under suspicion for this wolfing. This is just the type of subltle misleading that the wolves will have planned. If we're looking for someone to put near the top of the list, I would say that it would exclude anyone that can be obviously connected to this kill. Unless, of course, you beleive in double reverse psychology...

I wanted to add a seperate thought. The general trend is that one of the more obsessive players (Tass, me, blah, eb) attempt to pursue everyone to come to them with information and form the alliance. I realise after the past few games that this is the most effective strategy for the player in question, but not for the team. I believe that the alliance should be formed by the seer. This is the best strategy for the seer. Keep seeing people, but never tell that you are seer until the following happens: Each time you see someone and they come back human, ask them their role, but don't say yours. If you see two people, and both admit to being masons and can vouch for eachother, then you can tell them that you are the seer and begin the alliance with the three masons. This ensures that the seer will not be tricked into giving himself away to the devil (the somewhat master wolf in this game.) If you follow that plan, you run no risk of the name of the seer falling into the wrong hands, short of the devil by change viewing the seer. Hopefully by the time this happens the seer will already be established.

There is also another interesting strategy, and if the seer sees me and generally trusts me at some point in the game, as well as knows the masons, it is a great strategy that combines the power of the four to practically guarantee the humans a subsequenly swift win. I will say more on aim if given the opportunity.

If odds play out fairly, the seer should be able to be in alliance with the masons by the end of the third night.

There are 16 players left in this game, 12 humans. I'm going to assume that the wolves win when 3 humans remain, not four, because the devil doesn't count as a wolf in terms of killing. This means that the game can last a minimum of 5 nights and a maximum of 8 I belive. By the fourth night, let alone the fifth, it is almost guaranteed that the seer is in with the masons, unless an unlucky wolfing got the seer by random by then. If my strategy were then implemented and successful, it would be easy to take out a wolf each night after that without fear of missing one. I'm hoping this one is in the bag. Have a good day everyone.

^ What you said is a very good point. But also something that should be pointed out: This is TWG X. The 10th one. I think by this point the wolves have gotten a bit smarter than to use the same patterns that they are expected to use. Perhaps stretchy's relations were just obvious enough to be overlooked by us. This is pure speculation, but as of now I am not ruling Guido or Alain out.

Well of course I'm not ruling anyone out, that's just silly. I'm pretty sure what I brought up was a new level of strategy, as I try to outdo the thinking of each previous game. I'm just saying there are some things a wolf never does and setting themselves up by voting their girlfriend is pretty much something a wolf never does. Analysing connections are always the most popular passtime of TWG players directly after the day 1 lynch, because there's nothing else to go on, so the wolves don't have much choice of strategy with which to play either on this first night; they try to vote someone sure not to be guarded, someone with no connection to any of the members, and if possible, someone with misleading connections to other players. It's always been the same.

I'm interested as to how the poor wolves will ever know if they accidentally wolf their devil at one point :P


On a side note, I'm betting that after last game, many of us will be less quick to form our usual non-chalant personal alliances with other players. I know I had a reality check after Blah has taken the skill of friendship trickery to a new level after last game, and it's why I think we need to take a more cautious approach to forming alliances, especially the main one, as stated above.

Strange...

Your second post didn't show up while I was typing up mine...

I was responding to the first post.