TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

Not saying A2P is a bad choice since unless I'm mistaken, the person he replaced fit my pool of suspects as well, but I do want to say this:

I don't think being replaced has any real bearing on role. I don't think them being replaced should have any effect on whether you think they are a wolf or not. You may think "oh he probably was just a bored human", but he never said reasons for withdrawing. Unless he talks and gives his reason as "bored, didn't want to play anymore" (which I don't think is a legit reason to drop out of the game), you have no right to levy this against A2P. I am curious what your reasons are for giving such "precise" statistical analysis of 40% though. I really don't like when people make up fake numbers...

ps im at work now, but i am on aim. Plan on being there all night.

[FictionJunction]

Re: TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

hey guys let's vote for player x for arbitrary reason y

[FictionJunction]

Re: TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

sounds like a good idea

someone

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

I heard from a little bird that ruritsu is thinking it'd be a good idea to lynch iggy.

How on earth could iggy be a wolf? If gun was the seer and iggy knew it and stole his identity? How could iggy know gun was the seer if gun wouldn't even have known he was the seer until after he died (roles weren't revealed until day 1 began)? This would require MAJOR balls on the part of iggy to chance that the night 1 kill was seer, major balls of the not-worth-the-risk variety.

The only other alternative is if iggy was seer'd green during night 1 and is MW, then the real seer came out to iggy and asked him to fake seer due to fear, laze, or incompetence.

Let's talk about this. Reasonably and openly, and I will explain to you with all my ability why these two scenarios are not at all possible.

ps I honestly would like to say that even after iggy protecting ruritsu yesterday, I am in favor of lynching him now.

[Temote]

Re: TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

Not saying A2P is a bad choice since unless I'm mistaken, the person he replaced fit my pool of suspects as well, but I do want to say this:

I don't think being replaced has any real bearing on role. I don't think them being replaced should have any effect on whether you think they are a wolf or not. You may think "oh he probably was just a bored human", but he never said reasons for withdrawing. Unless he talks and gives his reason as "bored, didn't want to play anymore" (which I don't think is a legit reason to drop out of the game), you have no right to levy this against A2P..

The way that Freaky subbed out is pretty much why I've been thinking A2P is a human. He pretty much only sits down and plays the game if he's either a blue or a red. As a matter of fact, he usually uses the same excuse every time he subs out, "school, life, etc. plus twg sucks". I'm curious why he's in both of your list of suspects, though (granted, you two haven't played with freaky before and might not notice this).

I am curious what your reasons are for giving such "precise" statistical analysis of 40% though. I really don't like when people make up fake numbers..

40% is roughly where I'd consider the odds of hitting a wolf at random are at the moment.

Ten players left, three wolves left, Iggy knows who the psychic is, and then excludes himself. Three out of eight players is about 37.5%, right? Adding in anyone who he's seered green would raise that percentage even more.

P.S. I still don't know why anyone would snipe Bolth at all. Iggy, are there any players that knew you were going to seer him that phase?

[Viccica]

Re: TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

I think it's just Ruritsu trying to think of something for lack of anything better, personally... We haven't been making any headway.



At this point I think it's more important to bring people like afro, fic and such into question. The wolves have the humans running in circles at this point. Can we establish order please?





I also think iggy fails as a seer, no offense... Why haven't you been seering more useful targets? For example.. people actively posting?

[Viccica]

Re: TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

Reasons for wanting afro and fic questioned:

1- They've both been active and, maybe not quite argumentative, but certainly confrontational.

2- They're both experienced players who I feel can be very manipulative.

3- We've had plenty of games before where someone we thought was confirmed turned out to be wolf. Two being the last two games.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

The way that Freaky subbed out is pretty much why I've been thinking A2P is a human. He pretty much only sits down and plays the game if he's either a blue or a red. As a matter of fact, he usually uses the same excuse every time he subs out, "school, life, etc. plus twg sucks". I'm curious why he's in both of your list of suspects, though (granted, you two haven't played with freaky before and might not notice this).

My "suspect list" is more like "everyone who isn't x" where x is the people I think are human.

If what you say is true, then I'm inclined to side with you, but I will say that it's TOTAL bull**** if you guys keep letting this ****er sign up if he just quits in the middle if he's not blue or red.

P.S. I still don't know why anyone would snipe Bolth at all. Iggy, are there any players that knew you were going to seer him that phase?

I would have vigi'd bolth if I could have. I was actually looking forward to lynching the dude today. Obviously iggy was of similar thought patterns since he thought he was worth seering, although I will say that iggy sucks at seering picks... he should have seer'd someone else and we should have just indiscriminately lynched bolth today. Seriously iggy, you shouldn't waste your seerings on people who are likely to be immediately lynched regardless. You seer people who are FAR from being lynched, yet still look like they might be red.

And Temote: good insight on actually considering the numbers. I didn't even think about it, but looking at it from my perspective TOTAL RANDOM chance would give me about 40% chance at nabbing a wolf too. And that's WITHOUT excluding the people that I'm quite sure are human (other than iggy). For iggy... it must be more like... ****, something like 50%+ random chance, assuming he removes the blues and people he's seer'd green.

@ viccica: There's a reason I haven't had any pressure on me and if you and your wolf buddies weren't totally blind it'd be obvious to you all.

Can't speak as such for fiction, but seriously.

THAT is your plan, your reason for me being alive at this point? Say "we need to look at him because he is alive and active"? REALLY? AND you defend ruritsu? The dude thinks we should lynch OUR ****ING ALLIANCE LEADING SEER, and you defend the dude? I mean, naturally, you didn't agree with the position, but you STOOD UP FOR THE DUDE and that just reeks of trying to take a little heat off your partner without overtly siding with them.

Ok, so of the 4 wolves, we have bolth, ruritsu and viccica. Who is number 4? Redherring maybe? Guess there's still an outside shot at temote, fiction, roundbox, a2p, or makilaz too, but I think I'm going to make my call on ruritsu, viccica and redherring being the last 3. What do you guys think?

I think I should read back through the thread and look at the posts of bolth plus my 3 heavy suspects.

[RedHerring]

Re: TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

I'm sorry Afro, but I'm not a wolf.

Well, my actual suspects are:

-Ruritsu
-Fiction
-Maybe Viccica. I still must fill this one.

Now...

I say we should lynch Ruritsu this phase. If he isn't a wolf, then we should reconsiderate our suspicions as well.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

Recommend everyone goes back and re-reads the thread, bearing in mind that Bolth was a wolf, manti was human, ac1 was human, and emerald was human.

Doing this myself and it's giving me interesting perspective on potential wolves. Pay attention to how the people I've identified act together, particularly viccica and ruritsu.

ps Red: high five, bro. Actually, in reading the thread again, my suspicion on you waned almost completely, and seeing you agree with me takes it away completely.

[FictionJunction]

Re: TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

I'll be honest here. I've been lobbying hard against iggy the past day and a half and eventually came about information that has been confirmed by others that have been in contact with iggy, etc

I spoke with three people. Ruritsu was not one of these people.
As far as I'm concerned, I would have been set for lynch long ago by iggy and prosecuted by arfo if they seriously consider me as a wolf suspect.
Now that this green insurgence has a source other than myself I've begun to worry about the legitemacy of my claims.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

lol

Going to put my vote to ruritsu. Painfully obvious after all the things I saw while re-reading the thread. Viccica seems pretty obvious too if I'm right about ruritsu. The only X factor is the 4th wolf. Bit of a hunch, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

edu: who were the other people distrustful of iggy? Throw me a PM please if you don't want to publicly implicate them. Knowing of at least one of them, probably is better to privately tell it.

[A2P]

Re: TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

viccica, because of his last two posts.

[edubardus]

Re: TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

actually, I don't know where vicc is coming from but arfo and I are on pretty good terms =(

>arfo no. This is my social experiment >=|

[Makilaz]

Re: TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

Ruritsu. I agree that Iggy is being extremely frustrating with how he's going about leading an alliance. But it's not enough to where he should be lynched for it.