TWG XL: Mall Madness

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Also, it's not as simple as posting the sk's name because then he'll get lynched and we won't get a free kill every night.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

INCOMING WALLS OF QUOTED THINGS

Your lack of optimizism for this game is pathetic. You act like humans have no chance of winning.

This game is broken. Humans have a very poor chance of winning, and now all of our blues are dead or about to die. I think that pessimism is perfectly acceptable in this situation.

And yet you, as a human,

So sure he's human, eh? Why are you voting for him then, wolf? I know what you're saying there, but it really reads as "I know he's a human, but I am voting for him anyway 8)" Honestly, if this were a normal game I would vote for you for that, but this game will probably last half as long as a normal game thanks to ****ty numbers, I won't risk it.

don't know what will happen tomorrow or with a lucky lynch or anything.

No one knows for sure what will happen, but statistics, probability and deduction allow us to guess, and let's just say that the numbers do not look good for humans.

To me that tells me you have control over the outcome of the game.

The only one with that control was Observer when he decided the numbers of roles.

Saying the the best strategy for the wolves is to wolf the seer is the most hurtful thing you could have said.

"the the" LOL

Anyway, I must have missed where this was said, but the wolves killing the seer IS the best thing for the wolves to do. I really have no idea where you're getting at with this. Not only would lynching the seer take out the one person who can identify wolves without deducing them, but it also takes out a player who is accepted completely as human, and at the same time, they know that there is no way that their kill could fail. Also, it would take a team of retard wolves to not see this themselves, in which case, finding them out would be easy anyway (ie person 1: "hey are you a wolf?" person 2: "ya lol" person 1: "k").

You've been vendetting against ap practically this whole game and now have brought other people to listen to your garbage.

"vendetting"?

Anyway, true dat. Wait. Who wrote this post I've been quoting here... oh. Iggy. For some reason I thought I was reading an nforcer post up to here.

You throw in facts about how burdensome the SK is to the humans, then you throw in the fact that AP must be the SK with, IMO, minor evidence that completely misses the big picture.

completely misses the big picture? How can you identify the SK without using logic like that? I suppose we should be stabbing in the dark and hoping that we hit SK? Sometimes fractured, partial, or even somewhat flawed logic is all we have to go on.

Don't go for the serial killer. Go with the "kill the wolves, ignore the SK" strategy.

WHAT?! No. No no no. If we don't kill the serial killer, humans have 0 chance of winning. Well, I guess we actually have a small chance, but in reality, it just isn't going to happen. So, unless we lynch the SK or we get lucky and the wolves accidentally off him, we're ****ed. Hell, even if the SK is out of the picture, we still have 3 more wolves to get with 0 blues for help.

a bunch of stupid ****

How the hell do you know who the SK is? Why would they come to you specifically? Why wouldn't they come to someone like ap who has already shown that he is willing to receive aid from the SK (or rather, force the SK to give aid)? IF YOU KNOW WHO IT IS, WHY HAVEN'T YOU TOLD US SO WE CAN LYNCH HIM? I THINK THE ANSWER TO MY PREVIOUS QUESTION IS PRETTY OBVIOUS HERE.

we shouldnt kill the sk if we know who it is ps i do rolf suck it

Are you completely ****tarded? The SK is a rebel. He does not want to see the humans win. Why would we allow what is BASICALLY a loan master wolf go free just because he offers to help us for now? There is no way in hell that he would hesitate to back stab us as soon as it's convenient for him.

Also, take a look at lynch histories for past games. Us voting for two kills per day is ABSOLUTELY NO BETTER THAN SEEMINGLY RANDOM KILLINGS. A SK alone would probably be more likely to get a wolf on random luck than we would by trying to justify a voted choice. The best option when it comes to SK is to remove his killings from the game completely.

I'm most likely going to get wolfed

No. Absolutely not, even if what you're saying isn't complete bull**** and you're really the SK. The wolves will DEFINITELY be attacking the seer. THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL THAT THE WOLVES WOULD PASS UP THE CHANCE AND LET THE SEER HAVE A CHANCE AT SEERING ANOTHER ONE CAPS LOL.

Even if the wolves are even stupider than you and actually choose to let the seer live, you wouldn't die anyway because wolf numbers are less than human numbers or some bull**** like that I read in the rules.

That was because of the plan you produced and I refined.

Not the best wording of that in my opinion, but yeah I know. I just thought it was HILARIOUS that people were saying "well he was pushing for sert's lynch so that means he's not a wolf" when really, wolves can easily push for each other's lynch, even heavily, and can usually get away with it, especially on day 1 (****ing... this game day 1 was nearly a 5 way tie).

Can the SK really stop nightly kill production? o_O

If they simply didn't send in a PM or PM'd saying "I don't want to kill anyone," that would pretty much do it. However, this wouldn't help them AT ALL, even if it tricked us into thinking we had killed the SK (when in reality, if the SK kills stop, the SK could have been either of the two kills from the night before as well, although it will be fairly obvious which kill is the wolves and which is the SKs tomorrow).

Ok... enough quotes.

Now, I know above I said I would vote iggy if this game was normal. By the end of quoting him, I was planning on it. Then I read DBP's ****. I say, if he doesn't tell us who the SK is, we lynch him. Good idea: y/n?

ps stop posting things while I type up my long ass tl;drs.

In other words, there's no logical reason for me to be anything other than a green knowing the identity of the sk.

Or how about this logical reason:
You're the SK and you believe that you can increase your chances of killing 1 or 2 wolves if you get other's input on your kill choice.

Also: I believe you said something about SK regretting hitting our guardian. This cannot be true, as I believe the guardian is the one check to the SK. They may regret hitting the wolf's bane, but I am quite sure that they'd rather have the guardian dead.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

@ kilga, the sk can't stop killing at night, as far as I understand.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

GET THE **** ON AIM. (ps @ afro)

Your stupidity sickens me.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Obviously you aren't getting on aim.

BASICALLY. put it this way.

Also, take a look at lynch histories for past games. Us voting for two kills per day is ABSOLUTELY NO BETTER THAN SEEMINGLY RANDOM KILLINGS. A SK alone would probably be more likely to get a wolf on random luck than we would by trying to justify a voted choice. The best option when it comes to SK is to remove his killings from the game completely.

this statement makes you a wolf in my book.

WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE ONE KILL A DAY OR TWO. HMMMM.

WITH TWO WE HAVE TWICE AS MANY KILLS AS THE WOLVES.

DURR THAT WAS HARD.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Obviously I didn't make this clear.

The sk thinks the game is entirely unbalanced and wants to work towards a human victory.

AS IN. He help us kill wolves and when all wolves are dead he reveals himself and we lynch him. Game over humans win.

If he were to come out on the thread or to anyone other than me (since I'm actually optimistic unlike many of you retards have proven not to be) he would get lynched and we would be back to one kill a day.

This is REALLY a no brainer.

[nijatwo]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

He does hit the nail on the head though. Afro does. Our picks haven't really been unanimous or successful. I'm convinced that either afro or iggy is a wolf (probably not both, but definately 1) based on their actions. Just in case I'm not back, my vote is on afro.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Also, I know I was a nazi about being nice in the beginning of the game. I'm terribly sorry if I offended you afro, I just think you're not using your head right now.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

I also request that ffr, hans, and mini be required to post more or they get removed from the game or get replaced.

[nijatwo]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Where the hell is FFR? Last thing I remember was his "replace me" post. Assume that was serious?

[xObserveRx]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

if Mini, Hans and FFR HAVEN'T made any kind of useful post by day's end, I'm replacing all of them.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

I love you.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

If we do not hit a wolf in three days the game is over.

If we hit the sk today then we have three chances to get a wolf.

If we keep the sk alive and assume disco is telling the truth then we have 6 chances to get a wolf (3 lynches + 3 kills from the SK)

I say leave it alone and if disco can't back up what he claims then he just messed up the humans for no reason. (If the SK trusted disco enough to come out to him, I'm willing to weigh that disco isn't a wolf.)

But since even if we did know the SK, and lynched him today, the day that we would gain from not having two kill a night would be wasted on lynching the SK. I'm about to pull an AP:

Assuming we don't hit any wolves from now until the game ends here's the math on what our kills would look like. (W=wolf H=human)

Lynching the SK:
Day2(13 current players alive) 3W -SK (lynched) -H (wolf kill) +8H = 13

Day3(11 players alive) 3W -H(lynch) -H(wolfed) + 6H = 11

Day4(9 players alive) 3W -H(lynch) -H(wolfed) + 4H = 9

Day5(7 players alive) 3W -H(lynch) -H(wolfed) +2H = 7

GAME OVER (3 lynches other than the SK)

Keeping the SK alive:

Day2(13 players) 3W -H(lynch) -H(wolf kill) -H(SK kill) + 7H = 13

Day3(10 players) 3W -H(lynch) -H(wolfed) -H(SK kill) + 3H +SK = 10

Day4(7 players) 3W -H(lynch) -H(wolfed) -H(SK kill) + SK = 7

Day5(4 players) GAME OVER (3 lynches + 3 kills from the SK)

Essentially, if you don't understand, is that by killing the SK, we gain 1 day because there aren't 2 kills a night. But we use that extra day to kill the SK so our net gain is nothing. If we keep the SK alive (and he's really going to work with us) then we still get our 3 lynches, PLUS 3 kills from the SK. So 6 chances at getting a wolf is way better than 3 right?

Now depending on when we get a wolf, the math becomes trickier because we DO have to kill the SK eventually. So in practical purposes, we may lose one of the SK's kills. But we are garanteed 4 kills.

In fact, taking all this into consideration, our pool of wolves becomes smaller if the actual SK reveals himself. Lynching him would merit no gain for the humans, and the wolves CAN'T wolf him until wolves > humans. (which I doubt will happen because the humans will lynch you before the wolves ever get a shot at you.... comforting isn't it? XD)

Chances of hitting a wolf
Assume the SK is revealed and the 3rd wolf is the one that is getting hit on the given day.

Today 27% (3/11) for the lynch // 30% (3/10) for the SK 49% overall
Day3 30% (3/10) for the lynch // 33% (3/9) for the SK 53% overall
Day4 It becomes tricky here because at this point there are three wolves, an SK, and 2 humans. So the lynch really can't be controlled but the game still goes on. Probably 0% chance of winning IF no wolves are hit by this point. But it's possible, just not controllable. But there's a 76% chance of us hitting a wolf going with this strategy. And that's with purely random lynchings and SKing. Hopefully that goes up if we use logic and reasoning to pick our kills.


Someone please check the math on this, I asked kilga how to do some of it so it should be fairly accurate.

Day ends friday at midnight so we need to make sure a choice is made before that happens because this is our best chance. (And you guys thought we didn't have a chance XD)

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Well, technically, the odds of hitting a wolf (i.e. at least one) before Day 3 would be equal to the odds of lynching a wolf today plus the odds of the serial killer killing a wolf tomorrow night assuming we don't lynch one today. That would be 3/12 (pool of 13 minus Kagome) + (11/12)(3/10) (pool of 12 minus Kagome and SK himself multiplied by the odds that the SK survives the lynching), which is 52.5%, a slight improvement over your 49% but not a really significant one. Day 3/Night 4 odds would depend on Day 2/Night 3 stuffs and I'm too lazy to cover all those mathematical bases at 3:30 AM.

As long as I'm here, I would like to point out that this game is not as broken as people think, even with as many blues dead as there are. Remember, we're all blue in the capacity of the psychic. At this point in this game card-flipping doesn't give any extra information to the wolves so the public nature of the revelations doesn't help them any because they already know who's red and who isn't. Card-flipping is a more powerful tool than the pessimists seem to be giving it credit for.

Also, I don't understand the rush to get rid of the SK. It's an extra human-armed kill that the wolves have zero influence over (unlike lynches), and given the pace the population will dwindle down at I can't imagine it won't pick off at least one wolf for us unless we get some good lynches in. Right now I'd rather worry about the enemy party of three that has no reason to help us than the enemy party of one that has good reason to help us.

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Actually, 52.5% are the odds of hitting exactly one wolf. My bad. The odds of hitting at least one would be 52.5% + (3/12)(2/10) = 57.5%.