TWG XL: Mall Madness

[xObserveRx]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

to clarify the situation with the SK:

1) The serial killer cannot be wolf'd unless the # of wolves >= # of humans. (Remember, in this game it is possible for the wolves to outnumber the humans and the humans still not lose the game.)

2) If there are more humans than wolves in the game, the only way the SK can die is by being lynched.

3) The Serial Killer wins if:

a) there's no humans left, and only one wolf.

b) there's no wolves left and only one human.

c) (This scenario would be very rare, but...) If there is one human, one wolf, and the SK left.

That's the quote from the hosting thread. So yeah.

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Oh, greater than or equal does change those scenarios a little bit.

- Two humans, one wolf and the SK becomes winnable for us if a human is voted off and the wolf and SK kill each other the next night. (Interestingly, voting off the wolf OR the SK in this scenario means a loss for the humans.)
- One human, two wolves and the SK becomes winnable for us if a wolf is voted off and the last wolf and SK kill each other.

[StoicRoivaS]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

So in more than one of those scenarios, it's really the wolf(s) deciding who wins between the humans and the SK? Lame.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Kilga and mead are the last two wolves. Good game guys.

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Uh, why am I a wolf again?

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Kilga and mead are the last two wolves. Good game guys.

I'd be willing to buy mead, but why are you so sure about Kilga? I feel that Kilga is more human than most of you losers. Am I alone in this sentiment?

[mead1]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Kilga and mead are the last two wolves. Good game guys.

Kilga is totally possible. He's even one of my highest suspicions right now.

Sadly, I don't think I'm a wolf though. My other high ranking suspicion is DBP. Ever since his SK fraud, he's been accepted as a human for god knows why. He hasn't been seered, and has really done nothing this game to make me think he's human, now knowing he isn't the SK. Hopefully later today I'll be able to go back and look at his posts from this new perspective, but between work and school, it may not be possible until tomorrow.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

If I were a wolf I would have posted nija's name and gotten him lynched on day one.

Also, nija has to be sk, because if he's a wolf just night killing whoever he says he's going to sk, that means the real sk killed ap and kagome, which I find highly unlikely.

The evidence is all there, and for you to just try to get people to think I'm a wolf totally just makes you look bad.

[Z3ratul]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Quick synopsis of my thoughts:

nija: Accepted as the SK, we lynch him tomorrow unless we only kill one wolf with our two kills.

Kilga: I'd have to agree with Afro that Kilga looks rather human. He isn't missing the strategy at hand, looks as if he's helped us throughout the game, etc. Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure he's also probably the best player in this game, and hence the hardest to read. So he could just as well be a wolf. You asked why you're in that final group of three. It's not because you look like a wolf; it's because others look more like humans.

Stoic: Been flying under the radar, but looks human. I'm also assuming that PM DBP sent was directed at Stoic, which would prove his humanity (or improbable MW).

Z3r: One of the three currently in question.

DBP: Mead brought up a point, and I was also fiddling with that in my head, as DBP has played a pretty fishy game. Though I find it highly unlikely that he's a red controlling the SK kills. But, props to him if he was able to pull it off under our noses, as he'd deserve to win to tell you the truth.

Afro: As the game progresses he looks less and less MW and more and more human. Not saying he should be completely ruled out, but I'm willing to bet he's a human.

mead: Combined with Hans' game style in the beginning with some of the posts you've made, you look like a wolf to me. The post above hasn't alleviated any of my suspicions.

That's basically how I'm looking at everything, and it also should be obvious why the most sensible derivation would be to kill any combination of myself / Kilga / mead.

I have classes most of today. If I don't get a chance to run over to the computer lab in between classes, this will be my last post for the night. Therefore, I'm voting for mead. If I were to be home all day I'd 'pend my vote' until later and vote for Kilga, but again, the last thing I want is anybody getting insta'd. Besides, as Afro said, the order is really irrelevant.

In case I die... the (unfortunately) most likely outcome from all of this will be-

Green
Green
Red
SK

In that event, our only option is to lynch the other green and hope we can get the SK and wolf to kill each other. Good luck guys.

[nijatwo]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Ok, dirt on kilga time. ps quote fest

(Day 1)
Question: Where does the sk fall with everyone else

stuff+sk needs to work with humans

what we need to do is make sure kagome makes good picks at night to try and hit reds while looking for the SK during the day.

Would it be better to ignore the one guaranteed wolf for now and try for the serial killer instead? I mean, if we kill sert today, we know for sure that the SK is still alive and that there will almost definitely be two killings tomorrow night.

afro, your idea was to leave sert alive so we could go after the sk. kilga's idea was to leave sert alive so that the sk would kill him. I was agreeing with the latter.

Well, yeah. If the SK is eliminated we can concentrate 100% on finding the wolves, and at that point sertman is useless because the only function he serves now is SK bait.

What I read here, is kilga agreeing with the a person that has suspicion already cast on him, with a plan that at that point tremendously benefited the wolves (plan being leave sert alive and hunt down the sk).

The players contesting this plan have either flipped green or been seered green. I understand that afro's seering doesn't make him a human, but the fact that there are enough unseered people to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Additionally: (still day 1), we get this message from talisman.

talisman's fantasy picks for twg XL:

(note that there's no way these are going to be 100% right... I always get something wrong early on)

wolves:

afro, nforcer, ap, X (can't figure out a fourth)

Talisman was not red, but because he was blue he was trying to maintain suspicion to keep himself alive (that came over aim). I'm not one of the people that's like "omg hump talis's everyting cuz he iz teh r0x0r", but he has picked them right early in the past few games. If he were going for suspicion and longevity do you think he would have posted his top people? Notice that AP came up green, nforcer came up green, and afro was seered green.

What I see kilga doing (if he were a wolf) is trying to draw more suspicion (potentially) onto ap, but also potentially planning for the endgame (this scenario) to say "look was just humping ap strat okthxlol".

Kilga also brought up the obvious advantages (for the wolves) of keeping sertman alive. Buys them an extra day time kill if they manage to get the sk, and would have forced me to waste my night time kill on sertman, keeping me from wolfhunting.

======
Day 2
======

Today, APerson was completely wrong again about who the wolves kill and who I killed. 100%. APerson was already suspicious, but a wolf would have known AP was green. What better to do than to try and keep that alive?

Well durhurhur I want to see everybody's card flipped because then I'd know who to vote for!

What the hell is going on here? I'd love to see ap's card flipped but I sure as hell don't want to go through the motions necessary to get it done because ap has done more useful stuff than everyone that "wants to see his card flipped" combined and if we win he'll be a big reason. He can't be blue unless Kagome is lying and his post attacking sertman makes it nearly impossible to build up a red case against him, so I don't know how you guys could expect to see anything but green come up if he dies.

=====================
Something else


Kilga made some classic wolf excuses for things (like not being around) to rationalize a vote on hans that had far less evidence than other votes going around. Kilga called me out on "why" when he wasn't saying "why" early on.

During the BCS game we got some unusual input from him like "kthx gonna care about twg this sec football is gay" Trying to stay positive while not contributing until the absolute last second to be shadowed by the cardflips, or contributing little early and staying out for the end.

I'm sure you've got explanations for all of, and I'm sure one of them includes "****ing retard", so, go for it.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

I find it funny that zeratul and afro both say kilga looks human, and mead says he looks wolf.

Protip: giving away your partner in a cardflip game is a great strategy.

In more easily understadable words: I think it's quite possible that mead is saying he finds kilga suspicious because kilga will most likely get lynched today and his card will flip red.

[Z3ratul]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Was thinking about the game while I was in the shower. The PM you mentioned, DBP, could've also been for nforcer, or Afro. I don't think it effects the game all that much, though. Just thought I'd clarify.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Kilga: I'd have to agree with Afro that Kilga looks rather human. He isn't missing the strategy at hand, looks as if he's helped us throughout the game, etc. Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure he's also probably the best player in this game, and hence the hardest to read. So he could just as well be a wolf. You asked why you're in that final group of three. It's not because you look like a wolf; it's because others look more like humans.

Also, this is EXACTLY what kilga would do as a wolf.

(such as his post a few ago with endgame scenarios and the like)

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Lol @ random spurt of posts.

[mead1]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

PS, the reason I think Kilga looks wolfy is because Nija shared all of his reasoning with me prior to my post. And that's a hell of a lot more then I have on anyone else.