TWG XL: Mall Madness

[aperson]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

This is the best situation the humans could be in. I already talked to Kagome in chat, but in case you forget, Don't tell anyone your seer picks. Now the other living blue should go to kagome and you should form your decisions from there.

[Kagome]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

This is where it gets interesting.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

This is the best situation the humans could be in. I already talked to Kagome in chat, but in case you forget, Don't tell anyone your seer picks. Now the other living blue should go to kagome and you should form your decisions from there.

That was a generous five minutes you provided for a counter-claim.

To the other blue: Don't go to kagome yet. It's quite apparent that talisman, ap, and I are not going to claim seer, but any of the 11 players left could. We need to wait until everyone gets a chance to counterclaim.

Also, it wouldn't hurt for kagome to say that he seered a green or blue, right?

Well, actually, him saying human would be better in the case that he has to reveal who it is to protect them from a lynch, as if they were blue the wolves would know that already. What I'm getting at is it wouldn't hurt for him to say if his target was human or wolf each morning. It gives us the same effect as either 'OMG XXXX IS A WOLF' or 'hay guys what do we do today?' (saw human)

Also I'm assuming you did not seer a red last night or you would have posted it.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Oops. Just realized:

It's be better to keep a night one red seering to yourself for the time being because if you just get it out there the red might try to counter claim. If you wait until after they've been given the chance it'll help.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

That was a generous five minutes you provided for a counter-claim.

To the other blue: Don't go to kagome yet. It's quite apparent that talisman, ap, and I are not going to claim seer, but any of the 11 players left could. We need to wait until everyone gets a chance to counterclaim.

Also, it wouldn't hurt for kagome to say that he seered a green or blue, right?

Well, actually, him saying human would be better in the case that he has to reveal who it is to protect them from a lynch, as if they were blue the wolves would know that already. What I'm getting at is it wouldn't hurt for him to say if his target was human or wolf each morning. It gives us the same effect as either 'OMG XXXX IS A WOLF' or 'hay guys what do we do today?' (saw human)

Also I'm assuming you did not seer a red last night or you would have posted it.

rofl

That was stupid. If by the end of day the seer hasn't said "I seer'd xxx as red and we're going to lynch him now" then it should be obvious to anyone with a brain that a human was seer'd.

It's be better to keep a night one red seering to yourself for the time being because if you just get it out there the red might try to counter claim. If you wait until after they've been given the chance it'll help.

Also stupid. If an unchallenged seer says someone is a wolf, no amount of talking could get them out of it, unless they can convince others that the seer is actually a wolf somehow. Given that there would have been a 1/3 chance that the seer was killed last night (in the eyes of the wolves), I doubt that they'd risk it, especially since it would do nothing for them. If they say "I seer'd xxx last night and they turned out to be a wolf" they'd either have to kill someone on their own team or be revealed as a fake when the person's card is flipped after being killed. The only thing a fake seer could gain here is knowlege of the other blues, but is it worth risking a 1/3 chance just so you could be 100% sure of who the last 2 blues are, especially when those two blues wouldn't be able to have a solid alliance anyway (assuming that the wilkin was the seer, that is). I really don't think that any wolf who is not retarded would fake seer (and moreover, the whole wolf team would need to be retarded to let the one retarded one fake it).

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

I think you totally missed my point.

Kagome: nija is a wolf
Nija (who hasn't posted since kagome's outcoming): I'm the seer.

If kagome waits to say that until after nija posts (therefore not counterclaiming) we prevent this problem.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

I think you totally missed my point.

Kagome: nija is a wolf
Nija (who hasn't posted since kagome's outcoming): I'm the seer.

If kagome waits to say that until after nija posts (therefore not counterclaiming) we prevent this problem.

I see what you mean.

However, that's a moot point because it'd be retarded to reveal a seer'd red so early in the day and lose all of the talking and such that would have happened.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

I see what you mean.

However, that's a moot point because it'd be retarded to reveal a seer'd red so early in the day and lose all of the talking and such that would have happened.

Good point.

But, we need to point out these things and not assume the seer will know it. (not saying kagome is stupid or anything, I've not played with him/her) But, assuming could be our downfall.

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

I have my doubts about the seer coming out. I know it's too late now. True, we have eliminated 3 players from the selection pool. But we have now screwed our chances of killing a wolf during the night phase (save for the SK) until the seer dies. I don't know how the numbers work, but since Day 1 works with almost no intensive strategy as far as a lynch pick goes, I would've preferred to enact this strategy on Day 2. Pointless now, I know, but our wolfsbane is left with no killing power. That was power we could've used.

Talisman's constant flip-flop is making me suspicious right now. You usually have your act together. What's going on?

[aperson]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

I have my doubts about the seer coming out. I know it's too late now. True, we have eliminated 3 players from the selection pool. But we have now screwed our chances of killing a wolf during the night phase (save for the SK) until the seer dies. I don't know how the numbers work, but since Day 1 works with almost no intensive strategy as far as a lynch pick goes, I would've preferred to enact this strategy on Day 2. Pointless now, I know, but our wolfsbane is left with no killing power. That was power we could've used.

Read my post, understand the math. I've quantified your worries and your worries don't exist. Realize that knowing 2 or 3 extra names in the lynching pool is about equivalent in value to having the ability for the guardian/wolfsbane to use their night powers. However, it's even more so now given that the seer is certainly alive, and the odds for any save occuring given only 1 retaliable blue is around 10%.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

@dbp: clearly that wouldn't happen. A red wouldn't counterclaim because with cardflipping it's pretty easy to see who's lying and who's not, and chances are we'd go with the first seer.

@nforcer: reading ap's post about the night killings changed my thinking.

@kagome: don't forget to limit the voting pool (ie by picking a group of names for everyone to vote for). With the advantage of the cardflip, it forces the wolves to make and justify votes they might not otherwise make, and gives us an edge. Just make sure you pick people that are suspicious to you, obviously.

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Talisman, I still can't believe that you'd suggest the wolfsbane come out at all. It was the dumbest suggestion I've seen you make in a long time. If the guardian was dead (and it seems he is), the bane would be a sitting duck whenever the SK thinks the tides have turned in his favor in terms of human/wolf ratio, like you said. That would only hinder us in the long run. The fact that someone like you would even suggest that in the first place appalls me. There was no advantage to it, and it rendered the role useless. Also, the fact that you flip-flopped on that point pretty quick after I posted, before aperson did, doesn't fit with your defense.

In the list below, green has posted, red has not. This list is formatted in case we need it later, so quote it for future days if you wish.

Players Left:
nijatwo
talisman
Kagome
rioting
jwcgator
Kilgamayan
sertman
MiniNeo
FFR4EVA_00
DiscoBobbyPARANOiA
Afrobean
HansSky
Aperson
nforcer06164
Iggymatrixcounter
FoJaR

I don't care too much about MiniNeo, because all he does in these games is appear to vote, or if he's voted for. I'm not even going to waste my time getting on his case again.

Progress only comes through discussion. 7/16 remaining players have yet to even make their presence known in this game. Random vote on iggy, because everyone needs to start talking NOW if we want any chance of winning at all.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

oh you're talking about that... I think towards the end of my second post there there's a point where I go "wait what am I thinking?" which, believe it or not, corresponds to me actually asking myself that and realizing that it wasn't that advantageous for the bane to come out (keep in mind though that was under the original probably fallacious assumption about how the kills went down). So yeah.

About voting (since you just did) and such... it's cool if kagome doesn't want to do what I suggest about suggesting a pool of potential lynch candidates and forcing people to vote there, but I really do think it would be helpful, especially with cardflips and all. So... perhaps it would be best to keep random/inactivity votes for the time being to a minimum?

[nijatwo]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Not the seer. will post later.

[rioting]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Here are some more numbers I worked out for you to consider. If we assume that the Kagome really is the seer here is how a random lynching should turn out:

33.3% chance of killing a red or the SK:
While we wouldn’t know if we actually killed the SK (assuming that the SK turns up green when killed) we would find out soon when only one person turns up dead the next night. 5/15 = 33.3%
13.3% chance of killing either the guardian or the wolfsbane
We already know 1 blue is dead and if we assume Kagome is not lying, then that leaves only 2 unknown blues. So a blue dies, there’s a 50/50 chance between the guardian and wolfsbane.
53.3% chance of killing a human
This probability is the highest but it isn’t that much worse than the chances of killing a red.

So with these in mind, our odds are not terrible if we lynch a random person. However, as I believe Aperson has said, the more information we have, the better. Despite that, I don’t think it’s a good idea for the wolfbane to come out. The wolfsbane’s identity would just give the wolves the advantage of more knowledge. The wolfsbane doesn't seem to have much relevancy to the SK, so let's focus on the wolves. Let’s say the wolves could kill someone right now and they choose not to kill the seer(which they might do, but in that case the identity of the wolfsbane doesn't affect us this round; look at it from the wolves’ point of view (of course these will change after the lynching):

If the wolfsbane is kept a secret:

60% chance of killing a human
They already know who the 4 wolves are and assuming Kagome is the seer, that leaves 10 unknowns out of 16 living persons. 2 of those 10 are blues (either the guardian or the wolfsbane depending on what Wilkin was) and 1 of the 10 is the SK who cannot be killed yet.
5% chance of killing the guardian
Like I said, there is 1 blue out of those 10 unknowns. There is a 50% chance that the blue is the guardian so 10% x 50% = 5%.
15% chance of failing to kill.
By the same math as with the guardian, there is a 5% the wolves hit the wolfsbane in which case their kill will fail. Additionally, there is a 10% chance that the wolves hit the SK who I believe cannot be killed yet.

Now let’s say that the wolfsbane comes out (a much more grim outlook):

89.9% chance of killing a human
All of the remaining unknowns (9 of them) are either human or the SK. Since the SK can’t die yet, t
Tt leaves humans.
11.1% chance of failing to kill.
If the wolves target the SK, they will fail to kill. For obvious reasons, they won’t target the wolfsbane.
100% chance that the guardian is already dead.
There are 3 blues; 2 living ones are known not to be the guardian, so Wilkin was the guardian.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but these numbers seem to support what others have said: that the wolfsbane should keep their identity a secret. Of course this is all based on the assumption that Kagome is telling the truth which I tend to think he is. Even if he isn't, the wolfsbane should remain anonymous for the time being for the same reasons. If the wolfsbane were to come out, the wolves' chances of failing to kill decrease and the chance that they reduce the human population increases. Also, please correct me if my assumption that the SK cannot be killed by the wolves is wrong.