TWG XXXII - Game over (Wolves win)

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

ew ew ew i hate doing this but i have a job and don't think i'll be back by 6. I think falling into the trap that we so often do day 1 of targeting people that start flaming each other is real stupid. I'm going with jurs here because that comment of hers screamed "i want people to think i have no clue what's going on but wanted to make it known to the world"

Also, wher ma kef@?

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

Talisman, you know your own strategy better that I do. Would you mind talking out all possible scenarios (human statue-holder/wolf statue-holder <---> coming out/not coming out) to see if we run into any "sticky situations" in any possible scenario that makes it more of a hindrance than a benefit overall?

We do have to remember that any strategy we try in this game poses some sort of risk, and any level of reverse-psychology in the worst cases (as in any game, in any situation). We just have to decide whether or not we'll be able to get through it in case something does go wrong, whether or not we know it.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

there's really no risk to it unless people are stupid.

ok

--A human finds the statue who is not in the alliance.

---The human should then come out. They will not be trusted, nor should they be but that's not the point. If they don't come out, then nothing is gained, and something IS lost. Because the wolves know that this person won't necessarily be trusted, especially by the alliance (because as far as the seer knows the person could be the master), and because the wolves won't know if the channeler is dead or not, they will not need to kill this person.

--A human finds the statue who is in the alliance.

---In this case this person should NOT come out as they will need to be autoprotecting the rest of the alliance, and the whole point of this is so that when someone is autoprotected with the statue holder in public, we know a wolf is behind it.

--A wolf gets the statue.

---The wolf chooses to come out. This is the best case scenario for us as it limits their power to autoprotect. Because no non-alliance human would ever autoprotect anyone, the only way someone would be autoprotected would be if the public statue holder were a wolf. If the wolves do choose to come out, it is the master who comes out (and the statue is probably given to the master to avoid making it look like an autoprotect if the real holder is lynched instead).

---The wolves choose not to come out. Given what I just said, this might seem their most logical route... but they have to respect that when the autoprotect comes into play the alliance will know that the wolves have it (as presumably the alliance would know if one of their members had it) and that would create all kinds of problems for the wolves depending on how the alliance plays it and how strong the alliance is.

From another angle

If the statue isn't in public there are three options:

-It hasn't been found.
-The wolves have it and aren't coming out.
-The alliance has it.

If the statue is in public

-The holder could either be human or wolf
-If anyone is autoprotected, it means that the holder is a wolf, as a human nonalliance member would not autoprotect anyone (unless he/she were being dumb).

[stretchypanda]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

Is there an alliance?

Anyway, things bother me about your strategy, talisman, and this may stem entirely from my distaste of alliances.

Say I find the statue. I'm not part of any alliance, nor do I really see much reason to be -- with a master wolf in the game I can't understand why you're even suggesting a human alliance. It's really a dangerous move. Now, I don't see any reason to reveal that I have the statue to anyone who is going to meet me with distrust. Maybe if the point was to have a blue contact me so I can hand the statue to him, then, yeah, maybe I'd come out, but I have no way of proving that anyone in an alliance who came to me for the statue is actually a human or even a member of an alliance.

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the holder of the statue kept the statue until he or she handed it off, regardless of attempts on that person's life, so, couldn't the wolves auto-protect each other, just passing the statue back and forth, until they whittle the humans down to however many it takes?

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

Judging from how the rules were phrased, the statue vanishes after one lynch protection. It only indefinitely protectes against wolfings (assuming the channeler is alive).

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

I think the statue is gone after it is used once, Amanda. If it wasn't, the wolves would have a 0% chance of losing should it fall into their hands. I think, when Chardish said that the statue-holder could auto-protect multiple times, he meant that multiple people could be auto-protected, for one day. Only one person gets lynched per day, but if one of your auto-protect choices is lynched, he or she is saved. Then, the statue is gone. Please clarify, Chardish, just so we can be sure.

Thanks, Talisman. There really is no reason to NOT follow that strategy... all points are covered, and if the wolves get the statue, we have a course of action to take. I see no flaws in this plan at all. There doesn't seem to be a risk involved (so long as things are done right), and it really doesn't seem to cause any problems in the long run. The only problem is this: EVERYBODY needs to adhere to this.

EVERYBODY NEEDS TO FOLLOW TALISMAN'S PLAN, OR IT WILL NOT WORK.

If you don't understand it, ask questions. MAKE SURE you understand.

Oh, and if anybody sees any flaw at all that I'm missing, speak up.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

ugh stretchy the statue holder thing has NOTHING to do with the alliance, or if an alliance exists. It's certainly conceivable that an alliance does or will exist, given that this used to be how all the games were played and seers have been known to make judgment calls and take those risks that they haven't hit the master etc. That's not the point. the alliance part of my strategy is just an if-then thing.

Now, I don't see any reason to reveal that I have the statue to anyone who is going to meet me with distrust.

Ughhhh it's not going to hurt or harm you. Wolves will still have to respect that the channeler might be alive, humans will have to respect that you could be human or wolf, etc. The benefit is the knowledge that comes with it and that with the statue holder out in public, we know if someone is autoprotected, then the statueholder is a wolf.

I've been through this like 3 million times it's really not that hard to follow.

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

Uh, yeah. I dig the plan, I'm all for it.

Now, about the "share digging points" debate...Personally, I'm all for it. Even if 3 of the people who share their spots are lying and it gives the wolves benefit, the benefit is super-awesome for us.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

There was a "share digging points" debate?

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

Yeah, wasn't there? The whole thing about where we work as a team to find the statue by sharing all the spots that we've digged at?

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

oh right that. I thought we'd settled against that and that you were saying something about everyone sharing the same digging point or something.

edit: also,

guess that means we don't pull our heads together for coordinate points, right? Right.

?

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

Yeah. That's what we've decided, right? Augh, you're making me confuse myself. I'm gonna go eat lunch...

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

Great plan Talisman. Now that it was more clearly explained I agree that there's really no way it will harm us unless someone does something stupid.

About digging plots, it's like I said. If we share the wolves will basically keep us from digging in 6 spots, as they will tell us 3 numbers that they didn't use, that haven't been used, and reserve thoes for themselves. This would hold true if the game were played until all spots were collectively dug in (from the standpoint of a human) and depending on how many days that was the wolves would have spots left untouched, and we would not know which ones thoes were.

I'm gonna think about this for a seccond...

On morning four, given the numbers that weren't plots, (assuming no repeats and everyone shared spaces) there would be 110 plots either dug at, or saved by the wolves by them giving us fake numbers. Since this is the 4th day that gives them 12 numbers (assuming there are three left) that are left untouched for them to get the statue at in the next 4 days. Now, this game would only last 3 days after that point, but thet is still a 9% chance that they will have over us. Not very big.

At the beginning I thought they would be ablw to withold more spaces than that, which is why I said what I did. I now realise that pooling numbers would be a good thing because humans would benefit much more than wolves, and the chance that they withold the space that it is in is 12%, but if they do they only have a 75% chance to recover it for the game will be ending. (This is best case scenario for the wolves, as that's assuming all of them are alive until D7)

I think we should take a vote, of everyone in this game, to determine if we should pool.

If anyone at all finds something wrong with what I've written, even wit my calculations, please correct me.

If we vote, my vote's on pooling digs.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

110

what? there's only 100 total. Explain this more.


The benefit of pooling numbers is, presumably, only that this way there would be no overlap. But what are the odds of overlap happening anyway, especially early on? I don't know enough math to figure it out, especially given that some numbers are removed and whatnot.

Hmm. Come to think of it though, the wolves lying doesn't necessarily change anything. Say a wolf said it was at X, but dug at Y, and then later actually did dig at X. Now say the statue actually was at X. Either way the wolf gets it before the humans do. And if the statue were at Y? Well, presuming Y wasn't a number that another human picked, then the wolf would get to it first as well. Since there's an equal chance of it being at either X or Y... lying doesn't really change anything. Don't know why I didn't think of this earlier.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

I think we should take a vote, of everyone in this game, to determine if we should pool.

If anyone at all finds something wrong with what I've written, even wit my calculations, please correct me.

If we vote, my vote's on pooling digs.

There are a few things wrong with that. Really the wolves DO NOT have a huge advantage over a lone human because the wolves are gaining two numbers per day over an given lone human. After 4 days they would only know 8 more numbers than a human. And that's assuming that all three wolves live to day 4.

The only pooling of numbers together should be if an alliance is setup. And it would be between the members, not something public.

Course I've said that before somewhere already I think.

And I do think that talisman's plan is ok. I mean if you think about it. The non alliance member human reveals himself and that just means that the statue won't be used at all, since if he tries to autoprotect someone he dies for being a wolf.

Also, I still see no way an alliance could be formed in the first place since the dangers of the seer revealing himself to his targets are high with no safety net. So you would just have this lone human standing with the statue and no one to use it, until the wolves think that the channeler is dead and wolf the lone human and take the statue for themselves.