TWG XXXII - Game over (Wolves win)

[Wilkin]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

Okay, here we go:

1) One of the humans found the statue. The chance of a human finding it Night 1 was about 13%/12% (Depending on how many wolves we have. I recall discussion about upping the wolf count to 4, but don't know if we implemented it for game), with little chance of overlap, so it's not too likely that someone found it already, but possible. If I did, I would probably sit back and watch some discussion go by to decide whether or not I would want to come out, autoprotect someone, etc. So if someone is looking uncharacteristically laid back, it might give a reason as to why.

2) One of the wolves found it. This would be quite a pickle. Even though they do have the aid of coordinating their digs, that doesn't give them too much help for a couple more days, when humans will start eventually doubling numbers. Assuming a wolf does have the statue, though, it would be awfully hard to off the wolves. If the holder wolf just PMs saying "I want to autoprotect X and Y (the other wolves, assuming there's three), then there's a huge obstacle that would lead for an extra day for the wolves, essentially. Even though the statue would be lost, the wolves would save one of their own and off a human instead. Not the best scenario.

3) Tass' death and Afro's vote. Seems agreeable that without a guardian Tass would be a prime target. Also, with some of the suspicion on nForcer at the moment, the thought of a "revenge wolfing" came to my mind, seeing as how nForcer was wolfed Night 1 last game with Tass as a wolf. The logic behind it does reflect that of Tass' "Let's help the humans [but wolves more]" kind of logic exemplified in last game. While it does seem awful coincidential, I'm waiting until we hear from everyone before actually casting any suspicons myself.

4) Some more statue stats. Chances of finding it (without overlaps, with 3 wolves, and assuming human lynches):

Night 1

Humans (13) - 13%
Wolves (3) - 3%

Night 2

Humans (11) - 12.9%
Wolves (3) - 3.5%

Night 3

Humans (9) - 12.8%
Wolves (3) - 4%

Night 4

Humans (7) - 12.1%
Wolves (3) - 5%

Basically, the humans are just continually going on the same chances while the wolves slightly increase theirs. This is, of course, the worst-case scenario where no wolves are lynched for the first three days. Still, though, I think the humans have a pretty good chance of finding it (as far as individuals go, without coordination). The small factors, such as coordination (humans or wolves), overlapping, etc. would change the stats only a fraction of a percent, nothing big enough to worry about at the moment.


In reference to 1), in the Hidden Immunity TWG thread, it states that:

If more than one person digs where the statue is, one of them randomly gets the statue and the others learn that the statue was found, but not who found it.

Though, if only one person finds it, will its discovery be announced (without a name, I'm assuming)?

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

Wow, Afrobean. Wow. Excuse me for trying to come up with ideas that might make things easier for us. Excuse me for being proactive to get out of the stale nature of Day 1 and actually try to make some progress. Excuse me for asking to find flaws, so that in case there was a problem like this, we wouldn’t enact it right away. But I guess you missed all of that. Presenting ideas is obviously the wrong thing to do. Guess I’ll never try that again.

Wilkin, I do have to admit that a kill on Tass would seem an awful lot like a revenge vote from last game, seeing as it was the second game in a row I was offed Night 1.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

wilkin already had that last point clarified... see my post on the subject earlier. only the people who had also dug there would know that it had been found.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

but how would we know which were real and which were fake? The uncertainty would make all 15 (well, 14) worthless.

chance for overlap is decently minimal at this point anyway... we wouldn't be increasing our odds that much by coordinating.

Not entirely true. Assume that humans would tell the truth and wolves would lie.

We would have 15 numbers. 12 are true and 3 are false. Even though we don't know which ones are true or not, humans could have something to work with. If the wolves lied and gave a number they haven't touched, then it actually hurts the wolves a bit because they can't dig there. Doing so would show that they lied. If the wolves give a number that is revealed by the host too many times, then suspicion could come to them because they keep "choosing" numbers that are revealed the next day.

So really lying isn't the best strategy for the wolves anyways. If someone was watching the numbers close enough, I think it would be fairly easy to tell whether or not a person was giving false numbers.

2) One of the wolves found it. This would be quite a pickle. Even though they do have the aid of coordinating their digs, that doesn't give them too much help for a couple more days, when humans will start eventually doubling numbers. Assuming a wolf does have the statue, though, it would be awfully hard to off the wolves. If the holder wolf just PMs saying "I want to autoprotect X and Y (the other wolves, assuming there's three), then there's a huge obstacle that would lead for an extra day for the wolves, essentially. Even though the statue would be lost, the wolves would save one of their own and off a human instead. Not the best scenario.

I thought about this too. But in reality, autoprotecting is useless if a human has the statue. There isn't really much room for blues to come out this game. Therefore if you have the statue and you autoprotect someone, you could be saving a wolf and losing your night protection from the channeler.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

Doing so would show that they lied. If the wolves give a number that is revealed by the host too many times, then suspicion could come to them because they keep "choosing" numbers that are revealed the next day.

Uh, no. Why couldn't they dig in spots they lied about earlier? the spots aren't revealed or anything... the ones chardish removes are completely random, see chardish's clarification for jurs on this matter. the numbers may or may not be numbers that were chosen, they're just not numbers that have already been revealed.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

ok so here's an idea.

if you have the statue, and are not in the alliance, come out. Naturally you wouldn't be trusted, nor should you be. BUT... with you out AND not part of the alliance, there is no one that should be auto-protected. Therefore if we lynch someone else and they come back to life... we'll know we've hit a wolf, essentially oh wait **** that doesn't work... well. sort of. if someone is autoprotected we'd know that the person with a statue wasn't human... because a human with the statue that isn't part of the alliance should not and in this case would NOT autoprotect anyone. Only a wolf would want to autoprotect someone (either fellow wolves or to frame someone at the last second). So yeah, maybe it would work, as then autoprotect is essentially ruled out of the game if you have the statue and come out, and most importantly are not part of the alliance.

if you get the statue and you are in the alliance, you shouldn't come out, but should just autoprotect the seer and whoever else the seer tells you to, I guess.

ok so a recap of that rambling stream of consciousness crap:

IF
-you get the statue AND
-you are not part of the alliance

THEN
-come out
-do not autoprotect anyone because

IF
-someone besides you is protected from a lynching

THEN
-we know that you used the autoprotect, and are therefore not human, as a human not in the alliance should not and would not autoprotect anyone; however, we wouldn't know anything necessarily about the role of the person you autoprotected.

END

END

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

lol no wolf would come out if they had the statue.

And really I don't see where an alliance could be formed. Yea the seer COULD talk to those he seered, but really with a MW out and no guardian, it would be very very risky.

[ddrdanc3r55]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

Could somebody explain the master wolf for me? It would clear a lot of things up.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

I also agree with talisman about the statue person coming out. Could give the seer a better chance to stay alive (by either auto protecting or giving the statue to the seer himself.)

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

a wolf probably wouldn't (if this were set into motion) unless they were the only one left, but that doesn't mean they couldn't earlier either. so if we do agree to this it wouldn't say anything about the role of the statue holder.

and about the alliance, you're correct... the seer is going to have to decide whether he trusts those he seers (that come back human). it's just like in the old days, basically.

edit: was in response to iggy's first post. in response to the second... like I just said nothing about the role of the person with the statue would be certain upon their coming out, even with a seering the next night, and the seer should probably in that case be leery of trusting them. all the plan does is ensure that there's a safety net for autoprotect if a wolf comes out as a statue bearer.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

ddr a master wolf comes back human when seered, that's all.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

Another clarification: If the statue is given to someone, does the host tell that person that he now has the statue or is it based on the 'honor system'?

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

Another clarification: If the statue is given to someone, does the host tell that person that he now has the statue or is it based on the 'honor system'?

wow

Any idea that involves the seer coming out to ANYONE is a bad idea (except MAYBE random seerings that come back human... that's not THAT bad). All the wolves would have to do is have MW come out in the thread saying "i have statue" and then seer would give himself away. The wolves would wolf that night and no one would be the wiser.

And don't even say "oh but the seer could tell someone 'if i die xxx is a wolf' because that **** is bogus and we all know it. Only way that would hold ANY water is if it's a person who is never wolfed (like kilga or something...) but given that this game is different (no true guardian) wolfing patterns are likely going to be abnormal.

Ok guys, we got two people exhibiting tass-as-a-wolf-esque behavior. Where's our third wolf?

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

you quoted the wrong post.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 1 (Tass is dead!)

@Afro

Senarios:

statue holder comes out, seer seers him, seer comes out (publically), statue person gives the statue to the seer and he's protected from wolfing as long as channeler is alive. (same as if there was an actual guardian.)

wolf comes out faking, gets seered, seer doesn't come out (publically), wolf is killed because he was lying. All blues are fine.

MW comes out faking, gets seered, seer comes out publically, obviously seer gets wolfed, but if that happened, then the MW just killed himself. (even if the wolves waited a day or so to kill the seer, the suspicion would still be on the MW because the seer should have been protected by the channeler.)

So yea there is the risk. But it's not like we're screwed totally. And even if there was a fake that would occur, it would have to be a little bit later in the game since the chances of having the statue now is small. And if wolves wait to fake then it hurts them because the seer is still gaining members and working behind the scenes.

So really the wolves would only fake it if they wanted the seer dead in exchange for the MW.

Lots of risk on both sides yes, but that's what makes it interesting, and more importantly a choice that has to be weighed with the statue holder, the seer, and the MW.