TWG XXXII - Game over (Wolves win)

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 2 (So long, Talisman)

Also I was looking at the voting patterns towards the end of day 1. Here's what it looked like approx 20 minutes before day ended:

nforcer (1) afro
Afro (3) nforcer, kilga, disco
jurs (1) blah
DBP (2) kefit, stretchy
DDR - (1) iggy
Iggy - (1) talisman

Now granted there were a few more people that had to vote but after talisman's vote, afro comes in and votes for me, putting me at two. But usually doesn't a human try to save himself? I know that even though I would have had my suspects, I would have voted for disco giving me at least a KitB just to try and save myself. So why did afro vote for me?

Well next comes matt voting for disco, putting HIM in the danger, saving afro for awhile, and letting afro get his opinion across. (I've seen afro vote for people just to save himself, I'm sure it's something all humans would do. But if you had a partner to save you....)

Also, disco took his vote off afro, thus sealing his fate and with no hope of winning in a KitB.

That kind of throws my theory off a bit, but I definitely could see a wolf at least TRYING to save his buddy and at least hoping for a good KitB. His vote was right at the end of the day, so could also be a move of desperation on matt's part, not realizing disco would change his vote later on.

Course this assumes that afro is wolf. I tend to not think so purely because he's been a wolf so many times in a row, but I guess things like that happen.

Overanalysis or what?

[ddrdanc3r55]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 2 (So long, Talisman)

Oh, and my suspicions are iggy, and afro. Everybody seems a bit jumpy, so it's ahrd to really tell.

[ddrdanc3r55]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 2 (So long, Talisman)

Okay, I'm gonna go ahead and vote for matt. He basically did nothing on D1 but bandwaggon on a probably BS theory. I think DBP got lynched from the wolves swaying votes toward him, starting a bandwaggon. He really only threw out theories, which is what iggy does all the time. Matt sticks out to me more because it seems like he read one post and based an entire vote off of it. This way he can blend in, get a human, blah blah blah.

[MiniNeo]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 2 (So long, Talisman)

So you kinda just agreed with the guy you are suspicious of >_>

[mattc16]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 2 (So long, Talisman)

ddr, i only bandwaggoned on that theory cause i didn't have much time to read over the thread, (see first post by me, not sure what number), as i was in London for all of Monday, and i was also at a golf tournament most of tuesday, and just got online in time to make a post with a vote. Also, I felt everyone had a good point about pooling the digging plots, it's rather risky to give the wolves that much information and give them a better chance of getting the statue.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 2 (So long, Talisman)

I didn't realize that disco whatever his name was had as many votes as he did. I noticed that voting iggy would make it more likely that I do not get lynched than voting for nforcer, so I moved my vote there. Also, I was openly suspicious of iggy as well (disco guy too... I'm not sure how I missed that voting him would benefit me more), so I really don't see the problem.

And if I was a wolf, I would NEVER let a fellow wolf do anything regarding saving me. In fact, I would pressure my partners to either vote for me with strong reasons, or ignore the subject entirely. I don't let my team take a fall in attempt to save me.

By the way, if we look at the kills alone, I'd be inclined to believe that the kills are those of middle tier players. Upper tier players would probably wolf lower tier and keep fellow high tier players alive for suspicion. Lower tiers would probably wolf in the same pattern that we've seen in recent games (middle tier to avoid guarding), because they probably don't know any better.

PS 1 wolf down, only iggy and nforcer left to go lol

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 2 (So long, Talisman)

I didn't realize that disco whatever his name was had as many votes as he did. I noticed that voting iggy would make it more likely that I do not get lynched than voting for nforcer, so I moved my vote there. Also, I was openly suspicious of iggy as well (disco guy too... I'm not sure how I missed that voting him would benefit me more), so I really don't see the problem.

And if I was a wolf, I would NEVER let a fellow wolf do anything regarding saving me. In fact, I would pressure my partners to either vote for me with strong reasons, or ignore the subject entirely. I don't let my team take a fall in attempt to save me.

By the way, if we look at the kills alone, I'd be inclined to believe that the kills are those of middle tier players. Upper tier players would probably wolf lower tier and keep fellow high tier players alive for suspicion. Lower tiers would probably wolf in the same pattern that we've seen in recent games (middle tier to avoid guarding), because they probably don't know any better.

How could you not see that? Disco had the voting guide up before you voted...

And that may be true that you would never let a wolf buddy save you, but that doesn't mean that just did it without talking to you about it first. Like I said day was over in a few minutes, and it could have been a deperation move.

Also, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt about lower tier players missing the guard, (only because DDR set the standard fairly low.) But there would be no reason why lower tier players wouldn't go for high tier after day1. But really these kills are so obvious that I think they are lower players, just because you see the same thing in jtwg.

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 2 (So long, Talisman)

Based on DBP's behavior, I'd say he was human. No wolf would just go and take a fall like that with a 50/50 chance of survival. I'm sure that his wolf partners would've had a bit of influence, and that wouldn't have happened that way, had he truly been a wolf. Of course, nothing is for certain, but we do have to look at the situation logically.

Afro, I'd like to know who you place where when you talk about low-, middle-, and top-tier players.

I'd like to think that this kind of kill pattern is to be expected. You definitely can't analyze it in the same way as other games, because we don't have a true guardian this game. I have to admit, I'd be really scared to go after Tass or Talis early on in guardian games because they're likely to be guarded.

This game is a lot different because it's highly unlikely that anyone would be guarded on, much less be it a "top-tier". This is why we can't analyze or expect kills in the same way. Of course, there's not more information to be gained from kills; a different perspective just has to be taken. What I mean by this is, if all the senior players with a good record except one are taken out, there's likely a problem there.

I was away for a bit shortly after Day 1 ended. When I came back, I discovered (for I had left an away message up) that Kefit had sent me a message. Now, I had messaged him to talk about DBP's behavior, and that conversation died shortly after it began. Since we don't talk about TWG much, I was surprised to see that he had said anything else at all, especially something totally unrelated, while I was away. Apparently, Kefit had found a flaw in Talisman's plan that would render it ineffective. However, he didn't tell me what it was, and said he'd post it when the day started; he was signed off when I returned.

Now, what I'm wondering is... where is he with this crucial information now? I mean, if it was really important, what if someone found the statue last night? You'd think that if it was that important, he'd show up ASAP or leave the information with somebody else, right? He probably could've told me through AIM while I was away, too, which bothers me.

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 2 (So long, Talisman)

You overestimate Kefit's desire to play this game.

Also he has like a thirteen-hour schedule yesterday and today or something I forget.

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 2 (So long, Talisman)

You overestimate Kefit's desire to play this game.

Also he has like a thirteen-hour schedule yesterday and today or something I forget.

Well, the only thing that bothers me here is that he left me the knowledge that there's something wrong with Talisman's plan, but didn't tell me what it was. See, the thing here is, what if the statue was found today? What if somebody came out? What if this "flaw" could've somehow been exploited just because it hadn't been mentioned earlier? The fact that he told me of all people too struck me as odd. Of course, maybe it had been because we had just talked recently, but that doesn't explain not sharing such a crucial piece of information.

Maybe I should ask... did Kefit mention anything to anybody else during the night phase?

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 2 (So long, Talisman)

Maybe I should ask... did Kefit mention anything to anybody else during the night phase?

Not to me. The only "flaw" I can see from talisman's plan was if someone revealed themself as the statue holder, then the wolves would never go for that person and thus the channeler is useless. But even then the statue could be passed to someone else or something. (I don't know who they would pass it to but it could be done.)

[JurseyRider734]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 2 (So long, Talisman)

Okay, I'm gonna go ahead and vote for matt.

How do you go from saying your top suspicions are iggy and afro and then you 180 and put some random theoried vote on matt?

Sketchy.

[Kefit]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 2 (So long, Talisman)

Sorry nforcer, I don't really like spamming people with stuff I actually have an interest in them seeing while they are away, since I can't ever be sure if it gets read or not.

Anyway, the flaw is this:

Talis' plan entails that whoever gets the statue comes out. If this happens, then we can be sure that anyone who is saved from a lynching by the statue is a wolf.

However, this doesn't work with auto protection. If a wolf gets a statue, then they can simply choose to auto protect someone that looks like they are about to get lynched. That person then gets saved, but since they never came out as the statue holder, they would get lyched the next day. Hell, the same problem comes up even if a human auto protects another human.

Thus, a wolf has no real incentive to reveal that he has the statue unless the master feels like playing mind games with the seer. I find this rather unlikely, as it would be rather risky for the wolves, and they would already have the advantage from having the statue.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 2 (So long, Talisman)

Sorry nforcer, I don't really like spamming people with stuff I actually have an interest in them seeing while they are away, since I can't ever be sure if it gets read or not.

Anyway, the flaw is this:

Talis' plan entails that whoever gets the statue comes out. If this happens, then we can be sure that anyone who is saved from a lynching by the statue is a wolf.

However, this doesn't work with auto protection. If a wolf gets a statue, then they can simply choose to auto protect someone that looks like they are about to get lynched. That person then gets saved, but since they never came out as the statue holder, they would get lyched the next day. Hell, the same problem comes up even if a human auto protects another human.

Thus, a wolf has no real incentive to reveal that he has the statue unless the master feels like playing mind games with the seer. I find this rather unlikely, as it would be rather risky for the wolves, and they would already have the advantage from having the statue.

I brought this up already. You elaborated on it more, I think, but I did mention this yesterday. Not a reason to not come out if you find it (better safe than sorry). We just need to be wary and not lynch people just because they had been saved by a lynch.

And regarding my weird voting: even if you don't buy that I missed the fact that disco had more votes, at least you can realize that it gained me NOTHING by not voting for disco, regardless of role. There is no logical conclusion to draw besides that I did legitimately not see it. The only OTHER conclusion that could be drawn is that I intentionally didn't try very hard to save myself and now today I decided to fervently deny it (doesn't make any sense though, since even a human would try as hard as possible to save themselves).

Oh, and quick question: what if one of us gets the statue but does not wish to use it to save ourselves from the lynch? Can we leave a message to host saying "if I'm lynched, I want to pass it to xxx before I get lynched"?

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XXXII - Day 2 (So long, Talisman)

Kefit, that "flaw" was covered in Talisman's most recent explanation of the strategy. He gave all possible scenarios. Please go back and read it again.