TWG XIII - Dark Matters: Crow's Best (Game Over)

[stretchypanda]

Hm.

So, there's a lot that I could say, but I'd hate to be yelled at for repeating what's already been stated.

We've got a good enough mixture of vets and newbs that ANYONE could have gone for Tass, whether knowledgeable of his high status or not, so there's actually not a lot to go on there, but I have to say I definitely expect this more from our vets (such as a certain someone who keeps pointing out that he and a few others have said they would go for Tass first).

SIGH, I finally get to play a game with Tass and you people kill him. Jerks.

EDIT: Slightly related: If there is a chat going on on AIM, I don't think Trillian will allow me into it. :/

[deltro300111]

I'd bet it was somebody who knows what they're doing rather than some newb who just saw that the top dogs could die. People who have said in the past that they'd kill Tass night 1 (me, blah, alain I think) are most likely behind this. Of course, we can't instantly condemn all of those people because it would only take one of them being a wolf to get Tass killed. It's just something to keep in mind.

True, but the logical converse of that is that you are all wolves, and we should condemn you all. It's just something to keep in mind.

[JurseyRider734]

Well I guess after seeing in the last TWG that a huge player was wolfed night one, I guess the wolves tried to do it again. Although they lost last game, I don't think it will do that much as long as some type of alliance is formed.

Eb, you would have killed Tass? Maybe you did.

[evilbutterfly]

May be. I'm not one to act like it couldn't be me. I tend to present possibilities (even if they're self-damning) and nothing more. I'm surprised more people don't already know this about me.

[Kefit]

Well, Tass is dead. I'm not all that surprised, especially after last game.

I'm thinking this move was made by a long time player. Why? Well, look back at the first few TWGs that were won by the humans (specifically, the games that were held before the introduction of the master wolf). If memory serves me correctly, all of those games were won by the seer forming an alliance with Tass, and letting it grow from there. As far as I could tell, that sort of alliance, when properly run, is pretty much uncounterable by the wolves. Maybe I am missing a key flaw in that strategy, in which case this whole post is pretty much worthless, but I don't think that I am.

Now look at this game. We have no master wolf. In other words, an alliance like the ones in our early games is a perfectly sound strategy. How does the seer start this alliance? By seeing Tass, of course. It could be that a successful seeing of Tass as a human would be all that is needed for the wolves to be screwed. It is imperitive for the wolves to stop such a thing from happening, so they go after Tass. It's unlikely that he will be guarded anyway, as even if the guardian decides to guard one of the "valuble" players (ie, Tass, blah, alain), which itself is unlikely, the guardian will still have only a one in three chance of guarding Tass. If the wolves manage to kill him, then yay, they get an actual game to play. If they don't manage to kill him, then they were probably screwed anyway.

Now I know that I have expressed my annoyance with the view that Tass is TWG god or whatever, and that this post seems to contradict that. However, the fact is that Tass knows what he is doing in a basic game like this. Furthermore, he has the experience necessary to avoid making mistakes. Sure, others would be capable of leading an human alliance with the seer, but I doubt that any would do it nearly as well as Tass.

Besides this though, I am not ready to start speculating on who among the vets I could suspect. I think I'll let things go on for a bit more before looking into that.

[nforcer06164]

I'd bet it was somebody who knows what they're doing rather than some newb who just saw that the top dogs could die. People who have said in the past that they'd kill Tass night 1 (me, blah, alain I think) are most likely behind this. Of course, we can't instantly condemn all of those people because it would only take one of them being a wolf to get Tass killed. It's just something to keep in mind.

True, but the logical converse of that is that you are all wolves, and we should condemn you all. It's just something to keep in mind.

It's possible, deltro, but I doubt even if one was a wolf that eb would post all three names of the wolves in this game.

But there IS one more possibilty I thought of, and remember that I'm just throwing out ideas here... suppose eb is a wolf. Now, naturally, without a psychic, it's impossible to tell, but if eb goes, and we could prove he was a wolf, and the other two are left, we would jump on them, assuming eb really did post all three names. Then, the wolves would get two extra nights to pick people off while we systematically lynched those two, and when the game didn't end after lynching the third, we'd wonder what the hell was going on.

Now I know that I have expressed my annoyance with the view that Tass is TWG god or whatever, and that this post seems to contradict that. However, the fact is that Tass knows what he is doing in a basic game like this. Furthermore, he has the experience necessary to avoid making mistakes. Sure, others would be capable of leading an human alliance with the seer, but I doubt that any would do it nearly as well as Tass.

Remember the fastest game here, TWG VIII, had eb as the leader of the human alliance. Of course, it could've been a fluke, what with LD being kicked out and all, but I really have to give eb more credit than that. eb is right. Tass is a good player, but he's not the TWG god. Just because the wolves got lucky picking him off Night 1 doesn't mean we're screwed, we just don't have Tass's mind to work with. This game is far from over for the humans right now.

[deltro300111]

But there IS one more possibilty I thought of, and remember that I'm just throwing out ideas here... suppose eb is a wolf. Now, naturally, without a psychic, it's impossible to tell, but if eb goes, and we could prove he was a wolf, and the other two are left, we would jump on them, assuming eb really did post all three names. Then, the wolves would get two extra nights to pick people off while we systematically lynched those two, and when the game didn't end after lynching the third, we'd wonder what the hell was going on.

There is no way he posted all three names of the wolves- I was just trying to keep anything from getting solidified so near the beggining of the game.

[flypie743]

I don't completely agree, Lupin. Any player, veteran or newbie, could've seen Tass's recent first-day strategy: tell the seer to see him as soon as possible to confirm his humanity. Now, in TWG XII, when he used this strategy and was a wolf, it would've been wise for the seer to see him first, but unfortunately, the seer was bumped off night one. Tass, who we now know is human, could've given the wolves an extra day to kill others while the seer wasted a day on him, if he or she chose to buy into his strategy.

I don't quite think you are right in saying whoever it was had to be a better or more experienced player, but whoever did it was, indeed, taking a risk. However, I think the wolves may have made a small error in wolfing him when they could've let him lure the seer into using up one night, as he usually does.

Sorry for bringing up a page behind thing...

Nforcer, Tass could have also been a special role.

[Tps222]

It's possible, deltro, but I doubt even if one was a wolf that eb would post all three names of the wolves in this game.

But there IS one more possibilty I thought of, and remember that I'm just throwing out ideas here... suppose eb is a wolf. Now, naturally, without a psychic, it's impossible to tell, but if eb goes, and we could prove he was a wolf, and the other two are left, we would jump on them, assuming eb really did post all three names. Then, the wolves would get two extra nights to pick people off while we systematically lynched those two, and when the game didn't end after lynching the third, we'd wonder what the hell was going on.

Heh, that's what happened in the last jTWG.

Seems to be a trend of power-players dieing. Could have been a new player, or a vet, my gut tells me a vet. I was talking to Tass before the day started, and he said he was human, nothing special, so I don't know what that counts for. There really isn't too much more to say that wouldn't be stating past idea's, so I will wait for more to develop.

[flypie743]

EDIT: Slightly related: If there is a chat going on on AIM, I don't think Trillian will allow me into it. :/

Yeah, you can join chats in trillian. Right click your screenname on your buddy list then click "Invite to a Chat Room" then at the bottom of the invite in the slot called "Chat Room" type TWG XIII and you will be in it.

[evilbutterfly]

There is no way he posted all three names of the wolves

This is why I hate when newbs play. Never say "well a wolf would NEVER do this" because saying that is why a wolf would do such a thing. When I was a wolf a few games ago, I said jokingly in the chat that I was wolf, I condemned TPS of being a wolf (and he was), and joked around about me and Cypher being wolf buddies (which was also true). If there had been some slight evidence against them, I would have posted it. There is no such thing as something a wolf wouldn't do. Stop being ignorant.

That said, I don't think you guys should try to read too far into what I say. I just throw stuff out there. Of course, of the 3 people I said, I know I'm gonna appear the most wolfy. I can almost gaurantee that somebody will vote for me today. It almost always happens. Just don't only analyze one thing that got said, throw some stuff out yourself. If we all get stuck talking about one thing, nothing good will come of it. We need to bring up new stuff, accuse people, and get them nervous so they'll slip up and show their wolfiness.

Oh, and the chatroom is already pretty much dead. I'll be in there today, but I may be away from the comp so I can read this book for school. Guys, feel free to invite yourself to it and talk about the game all you want.

[HansSky]

Remember the fastest game here, TWG VIII, had eb as the leader of the human alliance.

I believe manhunt was the fastest TWG.


But anyway...

I don't think we should be underestimating ANYBODY in this game. I mean, going so far as to saying that anyone here would've killed Tass? I won't lie to you, that's not true at all. But we're limiting it to a handful of people, and that is never good. It very well could have been ME that did it, or what about Lupin? Don't you think he has the balls enough to do it? I'm just trying to open up the venue a little bit, that's all. I like to consider all possibilties, as I said last game, and the game before that. If we want to win, then we can not single out people this early in the game.

[Kefit]

You guys are missing the point of everything I wrote.

The game we are playing now is a very basic one. One of the reasons we moved on beyond this basic setup was because the human alliance strategy that came up in TWG 2 and 3 was far too powerful. It's not a complicated strategy - I'm sure any of the good thinkers here could pull it off. The thing is, Tass has experience doing it, and experience >> no experience.

Basically, I believe someone familiar with these older games (ie, someone who played in them) is a wolf, as such a person would be quite fearful of a Tass alliance.

[blahblah18]

Well I've already said that I believe Hans would do it... My list of people that would kill tass first based on previous facts is
hans,kefit,eb,alain,me,LD

no particular order to that list

that doesn't even tell us much since 3 wolves 16 people, odds normally woudl say at least 1 from tht subset was a wolf

[JurseyRider734]

Yeah, I agree, blah. But seeing as from the last game they could pull off wolfing a power player the first day, don't you think that would give somewhat newer people some kind of confidence to do it?