TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

[Precarious]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Back.

I really don't like how precarious is focusing solely on blind and has been pretty much all game... feels like it's a case of having one goal in mind to meet and only needs that one goal

Well the thing about that is...

the fact that he's ignoring the pressure and resorting to objective mechanics worries me

As far as I can tell, most of the pressure was coming from Blind. What precisely did you want?

As far as other players go, there was this. Which is about as deep a look as anyone has made into another player, absent the continuing discussions between Blind and myself.

Unfortunately, the linked post isn't as useful now, since Funny and Blind can't be scummates--in fact, no one left in the game can be anti-town teammates with each other. I'll be presenting info on both Funny and inD before the day ends, but the fact remains that absolutely nothing I posted about Blind has been refuted. Everyone has continuously town read him--while conveniently staying far away from my case against him. If he's town, refute it.

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

my refutation is that the things that he does are weird

his reasons for his reads make very little sense, and I've said as much to him twice this game

his behavior, and especially his votes (to be honest, the vote part is probably true of a lot of players on FFR) don't always line up with his words

but I don't care that it doesn't

that doesn't inherently make someone wolfy. It makes them a human being, and this is the blindreper1179 that I have played with for years now. This is the guy I stay with when I'm going through Detroit. This is his typical town play.

I am not going through your points one by one but
I hope this will at least serve somewhat of a explanation, if not a refutation

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

it also makes completely zero sense for him to ever be a wolf given the wagon from previous EOD

his behavior, specifically when he claimed Vanilla Town, makes me think he's exactly what he says he is too

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Last one for now.



Xiz feels townier than last game. Obviously there's a bias there on my part, I feel like he's pushing in a way he didn't before. I'm not getting a lot of white noise here. Even the off topic stuff has toned down.

***



Even by my standards you're quiet, then you immediately vote based off a single post that you don't “like,” absent any analysis? And on a wagon gaining momentum? Man, I'm not feeling the Prec vibe anymore.

part 1: post a wolf makes to a wolf about a wolf?

part 2: lol defending freezin while reading him null though. i thought tps' posts from the previous day made it clear enough that we'd have to ask him what is up for actual clarity, and feels like the goalposts shifted here because he did something of analysis in the immediately previous post, which you ignored

[Precarious]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I see people are generally disinclined to follow the Tps hiding strategy (note that this strategy assumes a mislynch; should we lynch correctly, further consideration of our options is necessary). So let me reiterate why it works--or if it doesn't, please let me know. It's counterintuitive, but that's not a reason to dismiss it.

It's currently either 6:1 or 5:1:1. If it's 6:1, Tps can't actually hide, and there's only one remaining wolf (in that scenario, him). Therefore, if it 6:1, we can mislynch twice, and still be at 2:1 two mornings from now. As a result, a 6:1 scenario isn't (or at least shouldn't be) dangerous to us in a long-term perspective.

If it's 5:1:1, a mislynch takes us to 4:1:1. A lot of things can then happen in the night, but there are three obvious targets for the wolf and SK: the three confirmed or pseudo-confirmed town players. They might try to find each other, but I think we can give them more of a reason to do so.

Let's call the three assumed targets A, B, and C. If wolf targets A, there's only a 1/3 chance SK will do so as well. Admittedly, Tps has the option to hide anyway without telling anyone, but he'd still likely default to the confirmed players, since there would be a 2/3 chance of hiding behind anti-town if he hid elsewhere (assuming he hides at all).

In short, with a mislynch, it seems more probable than not that we're at 2:1:1 tomorrow--which is game over for us. At 2:1:1 there are only two possible timelines--a 1:1:1 draw-loss, or a 2:1 where the remaining antitown can kill with impunity at night, resulting in a 1:1 full loss/antitown victory.

However, if Tps publicly states an intention to hide behind either Sun or Cel (it's important not to say which one), the calculus changes. A 2:1:1 tomorrow is an acceptable if risky outcome for both wolf and SK, because either can still achieve their win condition; they just need to lynch the other. However, things change with the possibility of three town deaths rather than two. If both wolf and SK attack B and C, and hit the 50/50 chance of choosing separate targets, they lose too. We go into tomorrow already at 1:1:1 and the game immediately ends.

Therefore, having Tps hides significantly increases the risk to both wolf and SK of an undesirable outcome. Instead, both would be more incentivized to hunt the other. After all, if the wolf kills the SK, or the SK kills the wolf, then the possibility of the 1:1:1 is averted, and normal win conditions prevail for all remaining players.

There are several downsides here. If one or both attacks A*, we'd still be at 2:1:1 tomorrow--but how is that any worse than the existing possibility. It's also possible under both the No Hide and Hide strategies that both double up on a non-cloaking town player, resulting in 3:1:1, or that one or both kills the other. But in all scenarios other than 2:1:1, we retain a chance to win. Thus, Tps hiding, as far as I can tell, would counterintuitively increase our chances of winning the game.

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

2-1-1 is still a chance to win, its just not a very good one.
Town sleeps and hopes the scum kill one another.

I am in favor of Tps hiding regardless of the result but ultimately it appears that he is not so that discussion doesn't seem too important unless you're trying to convince him that he should.

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

to be honest, I don't think the SK is any more or less incentivized to go after a person because they know the hider is about

the wolf, maybe is, but its a very minor point

I love the outside-the-boxness of the idea though
that's the kind of stuff I love to read/think about

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I think the biggest problem here is that no one will balk at blowing the game up and forcing a draw. Its just what I figure most people on FFR would do.

"You play to win the game" after all, and if we give them reason to do a specific thing, then they're going to do it most of the time because its their best play. If they don't win as a result of making their best play, I don't think they feel bad that they drew.

That's my take, at least.

[Precarious]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

2-1-1 is still a chance to win, its just not a very good one.
Town sleeps and hopes the scum kill one another.

Ooh, that is interesting! That would force both wolf and SK into a very uncomfortable position. In 2-1-1, it's highly likely that 1 of the 2 town would be confirmed, and one wouldn't--and thus neither wolf nor SK could be absolutely sure which player is which. Since both would have a killing power, they'd have to hope they've correctly identified the other, and haven't been identified themselves. There's certainly a chance that this results in a 2:0 town win, as well as a 1:1:1 and multiple different 1:1 scenarios. However, all of those are losses save the 2:0.

I still would push for the Hide strategy, since the odds still seem to be better, but this is absolutely a better approach to the worst case scenario.

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Did prec just sheep me

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

You're better than this.

lmfao fuck

i'm making a mq on blind for wolf interactions and this is super ballsy to say if it's more meaningful than just tilting sunfan

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

AlSo WhErE iS fUnNyGuRl AnD wHy Is ShE nOt DoInG aNyThInG

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

As a heads up I may pass out before eod

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Did prec just sheep me

what he proposed is really interesting and no one had talked about it

he did the exact opposite btw, he said Tps should not only always hide, but hide in a manner that attempts to incentivize the wolf and the serial killer to try and find him tonight. In short, and you just have to read it again to understand it, the incentive is actually a decentive because they can lose if they make their best play.

its very outside the box, and its not something I think I could've thought of without seriously dedicating time to it. It impressed me.

But no, he did not sheep you.

[Precarious]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

"You play to win the game" after all.

That's just it. I suppose it comes down to the idea that I view a 1:1:1 as a loss for everyone--which is why I keep referring to it as a draw-loss. No one achieves their victory conditions.

Under the NL approach, a 2:1:1 is relatively unpalatable to the bad guys, but they would still have a chance. I feel like the Hide strategy and its implications (potentially bringing about the 1:1:1 more quickly) would make them more likely to hunt each other. And even under the draw logic, I feel like it gives us a better chance of getting to the draw, rather than the loss.

I mean, under that logic, we might as well abandon the NL strategy altogether. At least one known town player has to survive until tomorrow, which means they could lead a self-vote and force the 1:1:1. That seems distasteful, and I was hesitant to point it out until now, but if we're arguing 1:1:1 is a goal state... (There's also no risk of it backfiring in a Tps as lone wolf world since this assumes multiple night kills, and multiple night kills confirms Tps as town.)