TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

semi-real suggestion: blind/funny/me vote each other in a circle, tps and cel abstain

2/3 chance of lynching scum if that's the world

cases:
1. blind and funny are the scum and the lynch rands to me. in this case they play prisoner's dilemma (33% chance of happening in the "tps is real" world)
2. blind and funny are the scum and the lynch rands to one of them. tps should no-hide tonight and then we play final 3 (67% chance in that world)
3. tps is scum and the lynch rands to...well, any of us. the others who are alive lynch tps tomorrow

[Tps222]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

This is how I view it:

5 left, Cel and I are town. InD/Funny/Blind are the other 3, 2 of them are SK/Scum. If we lynch one of those 3 correctly today, we will have a 2v1 with either Cel or myself alive tomorrow assuming one of us two are night killed and I don't hide. That means that tomorrow we have a 50 50 shot at picking the correct person and winning.

If we lynch incorrectly today, it will be Cel/Myself and then SK/Wolf, who then have to decide if they want to go after one another or Cel/Myself. If they go after each other then we obviously win. if the wolf goes after Cel or I, they're risking the SK killing them and them for all purposes losing. If the SK goes after one of us, he risks the wolf killing them and them losing. If they both go after Cel and myself and hit us each, then they get a 1v1 draw, which in my mind is a pretty lame result. All of their options result in either a loss or draw, unless they either both hit the same target or one abstains from killing, this would create a 2v1 where they would hope the other gets lynched to win with a 1-1 ratio. Lynching incorrectly is the worst situation of the three described here imo.

If we no-lynch today, we will create a situation where the wolf and SK won't be able to know who each other are for sure, and this will greatly increase our odds of them hitting one another. The chance of them both targeting cel or I at the same time would create a draw scenario, but if either one of them gets hit then we have a 2v1 scenario the next day. This is our best option if we aren't confident with getting a correct lynching today.

In the three scenarios I described above we have a pretty good chance to get the SK/Wolf to at least night kill one of each other in the no-lynch scenario or win with a coin-flip vote if we lynch correctly today. Please let me know if I'm missing a scenario here or if my math is off.

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

This is how I view it:

5 left, Cel and I are town. InD/Funny/Blind are the other 3, 2 of them are SK/Scum. If we lynch one of those 3 correctly today, we will have a 2v1 with either Cel or myself alive tomorrow assuming one of us two are night killed and I don't hide. That means that tomorrow we have a 50 50 shot at picking the correct person and winning.

If we lynch incorrectly today, it will be Cel/Myself and then SK/Wolf, who then have to decide if they want to go after one another or Cel/Myself. If they go after each other then we obviously win. if the wolf goes after Cel or I, they're risking the SK killing them and them for all purposes losing. If the SK goes after one of us, he risks the wolf killing them and them losing. If they both go after Cel and myself and hit us each, then they get a 1v1 draw, which in my mind is a pretty lame result. All of their options result in either a loss or draw, unless they either both hit the same target or one abstains from killing, this would create a 2v1 where they would hope the other gets lynched to win with a 1-1 ratio. Lynching incorrectly is the worst situation of the three described here imo.

If we no-lynch today, we will create a situation where the wolf and SK won't be able to know who each other are for sure, and this will greatly increase our odds of them hitting one another. The chance of them both targeting cel or I at the same time would create a draw scenario, but if either one of them gets hit then we have a 2v1 scenario the next day. This is our best option if we aren't confident with getting a correct lynching today.

In the three scenarios I described above we have a pretty good chance to get the SK/Wolf to at least night kill one of each other in the no-lynch scenario or win with a coin-flip vote if we lynch correctly today. Please let me know if I'm missing a scenario here or if my math is off.

Sunfan is secretly yelling at you

I dont think it's a good idea because I've been bullied about the basis behind this for a while this game

[Tps222]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I feel bad that I wasn't around enough initially to remember what you had said regarding this, care to remind me?

[YoshL]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Votes from post 2904 to post 2959
Night in 2:46:46
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 1 -- unvote -- Funnygurl555 (8)
• 4 -- not voting -- blindreper1179 (8), Celirra (13), inDheart (22), Tps222 (3)

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I feel bad that I wasn't around enough initially to remember what you had said regarding this, care to remind me?

Well it was more in previous phases re: no lynch

But I think it's an objectively bad decision for town at this stage too

[Tps222]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Anyone else here to weigh in ?

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I'm probably voting fg

[Tps222]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Well it was more in previous phases re: no lynch

But I think it's an objectively bad decision for town at this stage too

It comes down to if we like our odds voting vs prisoners dilemma, but I'm interested in hearing a brief summary of your position if you don't mind.

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Anyone else here to weigh in ?

In my perspective the only reason youd want to no lynch is to buy time and to justify f4 next phase if you're a wolf
But that's just me

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I'm at an arcade right now so gimme a bit if you really want me to argue it properly

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

If we no-lynch today,

we will create a situation where the wolf and SK won't be able to know who each other are for sure,

and this will greatly increase our odds of them hitting one another.

this is a contradiction

no-lynching preserves the ambiguity between us and increases the chance that at least one of two NKs lands on me, which would not at all be them hitting each other

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

going to take a late-night shower and try this cooling down thing that was in a news article, be back after that. supposed to be good for your head and stuff

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

am back, apparently i missed nothing but i'm around

[Funnygurl555]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

too sleepy to make it