TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

too sleepy to make it

ok

have you been following along? where you at on what to do today?

[Tps222]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

this is a contradiction

no-lynching preserves the ambiguity between us and increases the chance that at least one of two NKs lands on me, which would not at all be them hitting each other

No. If we lynch someone other than myself and cel then it means the 2 remaining are the sk and wolf, who then know who each other are. If we no lynch then we make then have to guess which of the two the other is.

[Tps222]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

This is assuming a mislynch worst case scenario vs us taking a stab today at a 2/3 odds

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

No. If we lynch someone other than myself and cel then it means the 2 remaining are the sk and wolf, who then know who each other are. If we no lynch then we make then have to guess which of the two the other is.

right, they know who each other are

so they can just attack each other

killing anyone else is playing to at most a draw, i'm pretty sure

[Tps222]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

right, they know who each other are

so they can just attack each other

killing anyone else is playing to at most a draw, i'm pretty sure

If they attacked each other in that scenario it's mutually assured destruction and we win, why would they do that on purpose

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

If they attacked each other in that scenario it's mutually assured destruction and we win, why would they do that on purpose

this is exactly the dilemma they need to solve. a mislynch today forces it without suggesting one answer over the other

in addition, it clears or condemns you, and i'd like to do that

you're basically making the argument you're priced into as a wolf here, which i appreciate, but it's not good for town

[Tps222]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

this is exactly the dilemma they need to solve. a mislynch today forces it without suggesting one answer over the other

in addition, it clears or condemns you, and i'd like to do that

you're basically making the argument you're priced into as a wolf here, which i appreciate, but it's not good for town

No, if we mislynch we need to bank of them killing at least one of the other or we guarantee a draw/loss. Obviously a correct lynch is best, but if we no lynch we create a situation where they have to each coinflip the other to have any shot if winning. Two coinflip gambles from them to hit the other is better than one 2/3 guess from us unless we all agree on a Target.

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

No, if we mislynch we need to bank of them killing at least one of the other or we guarantee a draw/loss. Obviously a correct lynch is best, but if we no lynch we create a situation where they have to each coinflip the other to have any shot if winning. Two coinflip gambles from them to hit the other is better than one 2/3 guess from us unless we all agree on a Target.

ok well i currently forget how conditional probabilities work, so i'm not in a position to show you math

but fmpov the 2/3 is 100% because i'll always be voting to lynch not-me

following your scenario actually just kinda makes things longer for no reason

(i'm into the last 50 xiz posts btw)

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

So if we no lynch, that puts this phase at 5, which can actually lead to an insta draw here if sk and wolf kill a town each, or if tps hides even though he shouldn't.
It could put us at 4, with a town dying, which creates ambiguity of if there is even a SK. In that situation we would have to no lynch as well though, and effectively leave it up to RNG that we win.
No lynch is useless; but arguably as well, it's the only way for a wolf tps to win. I cant see any other angle for wanting a no lunch here

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I think no lynching is a bad idea objectively and I would rather I get lynched than us no lynching

[Tps222]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

ok well i currently forget how conditional probabilities work, so i'm not in a position to show you math

but fmpov the 2/3 is 100% because i'll always be voting to lynch not-me

following your scenario actually just kinda makes things longer for no reason

(i'm into the last 50 xiz posts btw)

You/funny/blind will all of course push that position forward, it
means nothing and then we face the possibility of an SK/wolf bandwagon at the last second that literally loses us the game.

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

but like, if you are my partner then would that mean you would go kill yourself?

this is from super early game to me and is hilarious now in the context of this reading i'm doin

theres no way greg would slip like that this early, like if tps and greg were in wolf chat together, i refuse to believe he would say that.

oh wait, no did tps say something about that i forgot

k no tps didn't. Not a hard iso with 2 posts lol

these last two posts are just super throwaway

Sorry cel but if anything that vote looks more wolfy than anything. It would be more beneficial for you to go after someone actually here or talking or at least have made 2 posts this game lol

hot take: if cel is a wolf then sunfan might be partners with him

but like, if he doesnt post he will get modkilled so he will post or die its that simple

now if he does something and pull a xel like the previous game and come in to post 5 posts at eod then thats just not helping town progress at all

hey thanks, past me for not liking this at the time and saying he could be using it to protect a partner

cel if that was a joke vote that went over my head lol

defusal

okay, i get what you are saying but while you are in thread now, its better for town for you to look into people who are here or responsive.

no i don't like it either, perhaps i misspoke.

it's more of like, if they get modkilled then so be it but for the time being, it's better to go after someone else until they show up. that we can agree on, no?

if this was at the end of d1 then yes, i would agree with that point.

at this current stage of the game, no theres time so like, it's kinda a dead vote.

pretty attentive to wanting people off tps, but then...

i was thinking of a possible tps/sunfan pairing with sunfans previous thoughts, but would sunfan have the balls to post the entire wolf team like that?

While a lot of what ind has said i dont understand (his whole thing on me and cel must being a pair) i like his read on tps.

I still am kinda spooked by the whole sunfan comments about tps from earlier but im not sure how much weight that carries right now.

Also what do you mean by blinds paranoia, especially when (was it you?) who stated that his wolf and town games are really similar, i cant remember who said it. I am unsure of how i feel about blind personally but i wanna know more where you are comin from

tps becomes a pop wolf he likes naming and floating but not lynching

i don't remember him doing that

re: tps picking 3 names, suggesting it's not a worthy point in favor of him being town

whats the point of this question

felt like he jumped on this question (gradiant's "share views with tps?" to fg) at the mention of tps

In b4 wolf team is precarious/blind/tps actually lol

rule of 3 rules again?

tps feels ooportunistic

i think this is in reaction to me voting tps, rather than saying tps is opportunistic

the 3 tps posts had no context just complaints

Freezin/Funny would make sense here for me, third being somewhere probably in that afk's like TPS

if the wagons are actually clean, i think prec and cel would be looked at next? but i still think theres gotta be one on the grad/sunfan wagons d1

for the time being i'd like you to try and think of a world where funny is a wolf. I can agree with blind, i might be wrong on him but it's a mistake to think like that. I'm bias because i aint no woof woof but still

also where are you on TPS

not too likely that you will look at tps or funny/blind

(both of these are to sunfan in sequence, sunfan responds that he'd consider lynching tps but doesn't share the reads on funny/blind and xiz gives a "big oof")

2270 long post where he's "devil's advocate" putting tps as the 3rd in his hypothetical wolf team

i feel as though im good at finding softs but I never caught it, no way to prove it i guess. I can't even remember why i voted for dbp at this stage but i know i liked my reason.

tps scumleans xiz, citing past game experience and knowing what he's capable of, and thinking he caught the dbp soft

reaction to mass claim just seems kinda headnoddy

hwap

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

So if we no lynch, that puts this phase at 5, which can actually lead to an insta draw here if sk and wolf kill a town each, or if tps hides even though he shouldn't.
It could put us at 4, with a town dying, which creates ambiguity of if there is even a SK. In that situation we would have to no lynch as well though, and effectively leave it up to RNG that we win.
No lynch is useless; but arguably as well, it's the only way for a wolf tps to win. I cant see any other angle for wanting a no lunch here

yeah since he said it i've been thinking about the ramifications

if he's just a wolf, then only one person can die, and then i think it's no longer allowed to be you

and what he's gonna spin is "huh, they both must have flipped the coin wrong, that's weird"

so like, maybe it's not that bad of an outcome actually because i just figured out the story lol, but it feels bad

[Tps222]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Cel, I'm trying to bank on prisoners dilemma with two chances for us to essentially lock the game this night vs fucking it up and losing for sure today. I'm not saying it's the only path, just the optimal. Your strategy is based around the worst case scenario happening post no-lynch instead of the most likely one. You're the only person I trust at this point right now so I'm a little disappointed that you're playing as discouraged as you are. Pit the desperate roles against each other makes the most sense to me, I don't even understand why you think I would want this to go any further than what is reasonable.

[Tps222]

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

If we want to stake the game on a 66% chance of getting it right today then I'll do it, but we have to be sure about the target or it's game over.