jTWG IV – Level 4 “Level 4" HUMANS WIN Day 4

[Freak83]

According to you, night one, the guardian said, "hum de dum, let's find the seer" and proceeded to im somebody who just happened to be a wolf. "Hello there, I am the guardian." "Will you protect me?" "Yeah, sure!"

give me a break.

Night One the wolves manage to get in touch with the Guardian. How is completely unknown. The possibilities are limitless.

[Lupin_the_3rd]

I think this is more a question of probability, and the probability of that happening ever, without anyone as a witness besides the guardian means that they contacted them directly.

Contacting the guardian himself, and not one other person: 1/13
Asking the human whether he is a guardian or not and getting the response, "yes I am" on the first night: slim to none
Telling the guardian you need to be seered because "I said so": slim to none
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Lynching Freak because of apparent suspicion: 1/15

I think I'm running with better odds.


I do realize you need to defend yourself, but obviously I cannot help by realizing your point if you're accusing me : ) . Nothing personal, I simply must defend myself if it comes to this.

[akorn]

Since I've been mostly active on the AIM chat, and not here on the forums, people might think I'm getting this out of nowhere... But this is my take on the game right now:

Theory 1: Conspiracy theory
-Snapps is a wolf, guardian revealed himself before 1st night, all that Freak posted... Honestly, this just seems way too farfetched to be true. Occam's razor anywone?

Theory 2: Freak is a wolf
-Basically, because of the way Freak switched votes around so many times, and how he responded to Dan's vote, his behaviour looked wolfish. This idea doesn't seem to have any solid base, besides from the fact that Rye_bread (who is Freak's friend irl) defended him.. Still, it's a possibility to consider.

Theory nr 3: My farfetched (or not) theory (I also have a right to make something up, right? =P )
Lupin is a wolf. My reason for thinking this is not because of the things Freak posted., but 2 main reasons...
-First, the vote on Freak on page 6 (which seemed to come out of nowhere.. at least I didn0t see anything suspicious in that chat, but maybe Lupin tried to follow on what Dan posted)

-Secondly, the whole Instalynch thing. Lupin was trying to organize an instalynch on Freak right before the day ended so inactives wouldn't get phantoms... Thing is, having phantoms on inactives is kinda inconsequential at this phase, especially because of the edge the humans have right now (Snapps being guarded, forming an alliance, etc.), but a good idea nonetheless.

My thought then was why would he want a insta on freak, and freak only, seeing as it wasn't really decided at that point who was gonna have the most votes at the end of the day. Maybe an inactive, like rs2, was a wolf, and he was trying to avoid a phantom for him (since they hurt wolves so much).

What made me really suspicious was this

[00:14] DanceGuy: I just thought of something
[00:14] Lupin_the_3rd: yeah
[00:14] DanceGuy: I'm not sure, it's just kinda a random thought
[00:14] DanceGuy: But remember how someone brought up seering rsr2?
[00:15] Lupin_the_3rd: not really
[00:15] DanceGuy: Say we lynch him today and seer Freak instead?
[00:15] DanceGuy: o lolz
[00:15] AkornPT: that'd be samrter than the 1st alternative
[00:15] Lupin_the_3rd: rsr2 could be the psychic. The psychic is probably the most important at this time

So yeah... Lupin is my vote for now.

[Lupin_the_3rd]

My thought then was why would he want a insta on freak, and freak only, seeing as it wasn't really decided at that point who was gonna have the most votes at the end of the day. Maybe an inactive, like rs2, was a wolf, and he was trying to avoid a phantom for him (since they hurt wolves so much).

This theory fails because I said, "whoever is the majority". So akorn, you're telling me that having 3 people with phantom votes doesn't matter? 3 phantom votes... Do you even realize what a phantom vote can do in the last rounds of the game? Instant elimination. Without a single vote placed upon them. The reason I say the majority is because if we do instalynch them (by which I mean minutes before the time ends) it doesnt effect the outcome of the vote, only the placements of phantom votes on THREE people.

What begins to worry me is the fact that 3 phantom votes seems "inconsequential". Sure, it may seem so at this point in time, but obviously you don't have any respect for the turnout of this game.

[bullettime90]

i change my vote to bullettime90.
i dont believe freak is a wolf but I don't want rsr2 to be voted off until we realize that he is inactive for sure.

[dAnceguy117]

K, I've posted lots of reasons, and I'm gonna be gone for the next few hours. I have to do this now. Freak83

[Rye_Bread]

Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: jTWG IV – Level 1 “Expan

As far as I can figure, NOBODY else noticed this, because nobody else mentioned it. BTW, if you want to look, it's on the bottom of page 5 and the top of page 6.

I believe that daniel_lewis20 is a wolf. He finds evidence that makes Freak look wolfish, and then jumps all over it.

I would do this, too, but then he also completely ignores Freak's attempts to defend himself. He is trying to launch a massive tirade against Freak by making up evidence (the last quote in the quote above), and he is trying to take as many shots at Freak as he can. Has anybody noticed that most, if not all, of Freak's posts are met by "stfu wolf"? Nobody's even trying to take his side- except for Rye.

When a wolf sees that a bandwagon is going to work, he does everything in his power to make it work.

Way to go Psychic25. In a time where everyone is so furiously defending themselves, i think we all needed you to clearly articulate what I tried to show immediately after the bandwagon. I am in exact agreement with you.

In respons to everyone thinking my earlier post (which has now become "the wolf theory"), either has a very slim chance of existing. At first i thought so to. It was such a slim chance I doubted even mentioning it. As I posted earlier, there are two reasons why I chose to let people know about it, accusing Snapps.

Snapps, because of your silence after such a pivotal moment, and then hopping on a ridiculous band wagon, I strongly begin to believe that there was a pre night1 alliance with a wolf and guardian in it, who convinced someone to protect Snapps, while his wolf friends killed him knowing he would be protected, as probably the best feint move of all time - letting snapps (one of the wolves) know all the special roles. That would be an excellent ploy.

For those two reasons I began to think this slim "wolf theory" was becoming more of a possibility.

Ok, to answer you post Psychic. I posted the convo I had with Freak because of my own suspicions that he was acting weird. Then I got advice that I should vote for him to see how he would react, even when I didn't want to.

That is a terrible reason. You have not given any remotely substantial evidence in you're defense against psychic's post, let alone either of Freak's or mine. If you go back to page 5, you will see that your "conversation evidence" consisted of (as you later admitted), him not "responding to you civilly." Then you bandwagoned against him ridiculously. Now I knew you were an ass who liked to do stuff like this, so it didn't surprise me. What did surprise me was when instantaneously Snapps replied supporting your ridiculous bandwagon. Hence me stating what has become the "wolf theory."

The fact that once I stated the possibility of the "wolf theory," certain people said their was a ridiculously thin chance, and others there was 'NO CHANCE." Well obviously there is a chance otherwise it wouldn't be possible, and I must agree with freak again when he says those people would should be suspect, as any wolf would immediately try to destroy the credibility of their theory.

The last thing and most important thing is, whether the wolf theory is correct (which I also believe is still an outward chance theory), Lupin and Dan have both behaved extremely suspiciously. Freak83 pretty much summed up all the evidence against them, and he did a damn good job of it. I will restate my vote for daniel_lewis20.

Hopefully you guys will start to see the truth like psychic25. Let's get the seer to confirm us. I know I'm a human, now you guys should know it.

Cheers,
Ryan

[akorn]

Meh, just realised that voting lupin, if I'm right, is the same as voting rsr2

[bullettime90]

i vote freak

[psychic25]

I'm voting Freak83, just so we can avoid people getting phantoms. Bullettime is doing it for the same reason, I believe.

[Lupin_the_3rd]

I hate to see this kind of bandwagonning, but freak is going down anyway. At the very least vote for him to avoid THREE phantoms, which have the potential to ensure a loss.

[bullettime90]

yes, as a matter of fact

[Rye_Bread]

I am changing my vote to rsr2. DON"T THINK FOR A SECOND THAT I AM DOING THIS BECAUSE I DOUBT MY LOGIC. I don't. I still believe Dan and lupin are wolves, with a possibility of danceguy and Snapps (if the wolf theory is correct).

Here is the dilemma right now. Unless we get another majority freak83 will be lynched, who I strongly believe is not a wolf (although there is a very small chance I'm wrong), but a no greater chance then with anyone else playing. If you guys don't get you're votes off freak83,

YOU ARE GOING TO KILL A GOOD HUMAN STRATEGIST BECAUSE OF ABSOLUTELY NO EVIDENCE ON AN UNCIVIL RESPOND TO AN ANNOYING PRICK.

Plz. See sense before the postgame comes this time. (lol postgame will definetly be interesting, we'll see whether the wolf theory is actually correct or not).

Cheers,
Ryan

ACT QUICKLY

[akorn]

Freak83, because of the whole insta/phantom thing, but I'll have something to post on day 2...

[Freak83]

Wow vote rsr2 to avoid phantoms. Way to listen to Lupin_the_wolf guys. I've said everything I needed to, you're voting off a human. The psychic will confirm it. Kill lupin next.