TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

Dabackpack is on exActly zero won't lynch lists and I'm on almost every won't lynch list the game I want to play is the thread adaption of the popular screenplay Whose afraid of lynching backpank?

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

Lunching

So I take it you literally have no idea how to figure out if something is wolfy or not and you are definitely not askin your coach enough questions. I don't think there's any hope for you improving quickly if you don't show any signs of trying to figure shit out

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

Hey manticore come weigh in on DBP and maybe other things but I'll keep my requests of you small at first

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

So I take it you literally have no idea how to figure out if something is wolfy or not and you are definitely not askin your coach enough questions. I don't think there's any hope for you improving quickly if you don't show any signs of trying to figure shit out

Lol k

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

nah red blaster you don't get it, that wasn't a thing to get defensive about it was an invitation to stop playing with guarded shell up where you only feel comfortable having opinions about white noisey things

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

your coach should be explaining this stuff to you, but since they arent i will

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

sometimes i have opinions for a matter of five minutes, if i think its relevant you will know about that opinion for those five minutes until i change my mind and let you know i changed my mind

this is the unbearably easy side of the work of being a villager

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

wolves cant fake opinions convincingly nearly as fast as humans can generate fluid opinions without seeming extremely clunky and forced and awkward

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

so you can win by simply having opinions at a million miles per hour. this be the work of a villager.

the hard side is havign a spreadsheet or some other form of notes you keep so you don't become easily manipulated by your tendency to forget the things you thoguht were important earlier

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

like its this stream of consciousness without being clunky that i've used to clear sunfan, viccica, jrodd, and fiction with for today. since each person already has a 75% chance of being villager, strong indicators with a thing that's hard to fake push this well into a range where i'm not comfortable lynching them, especially on the crapshoot that is day 1

so we're looking at the indicators on the other side of the coin now, the push away from that 75% chance of being human into a less than 75% chance of being human. this is where i start to look at things like
james may
dabackpack
lumphoboextreme

i'm not interested in either plopadop or charu because both have the feel of a consensus target. that is, they are a target that has been mentioned too many times for every mention to be done by a human. this doesn't mean that their play is not wolfy, but there's a mix of "too easy to get a consensus lynch" and "i don't trust my reads on them anyways" that i want to wait.

so let's talk about
james may - this dude made some awkward posts, and has gotten into fights with people i am willing to currently consider villager. i'll kill him just to see how voting patterns happen when he dies, but also because i'm willing to currently give some amount of deference to jrodd's read because i think i'm becoming a better jrodd reader as time goes on and our playstyles start to become closer to each other.

lumphoboextreme - the only person to vote for this guy is mr. darkmanticorex2, so he has literally gone 100% unnoticed because no one pays attention to manti until late into day 1 because he has established he will not really play any sooner than that regardless of alliance. lumphobo is perhaps the most unnoticed player in the entire game. this increases his chances of being wolf from 25% chance to like 35% chance in my opinion and is a worthwhile lynch. if he were human, why wouldn't wolves take the opportunity to attack this easy target who has shown he doesn't give a shit about defending himself?

dabackpack - this guy is the best read i've got, because it's a gutread from an interaction that i had. i called DBP wolfy for one post he made where he found some weird posts that weren't really connected and tried to make an expositional analysis of these posts. that's weird, it shows that he's skimming, searching for random crap, and trying to fabricate an analysis of why something is wolfy. his style is extremely paced and measured this game. which isn't bad necessarily i've seen types like tc_halogen or manti or even myself pull this style off before, but what he chose to focus on and his conclusions were weird. he immediately backed off the conclusions he seemed to be moving towards as soon as i pressed him, and showed way too much of a sense of feeling under pressure for the tone and nature of the questions i asked him. for me, there is no better person to kill because i believe he's a wolf and either way pushing him is going to give me a sense of how and why people are willing to agree with me.

so that's why i chose those three targets. the thing that sucks, and which stops most people from playing at this stage on day 1 is the idea that they MUST BE RIGHT and MUST STRIKE A RED. but i've offered up three targets, so chances are someone on team wolf will be willing to defend their buds if it gets closer to phase end and make sure we don't kill them.

and there's always the chance that if 1 of those 3 is a wolf we might have a lynch between two humans (very common on day 1) in which case we will get very little information out of the wolves.

that's not what is important. what's important is that each of us selects what we believe to be strong candidates for lynching (in the sense that your odds move from 25% to 35%+ of hitting wolf so amongst the three you have a bayesian spread that is worth 1 net wolf) and then forcing the wolves to try to control the game from your spread.

if humans do this it just makes the game continually uncomfortable for dem wolves because they are forced into corners where they have to respond all wolfy like which they hate having to be wolfy they want you to do that for them

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

So because I don't shitpost every time I get a suspicious feeling about someone, I don't know what I'm doing? Sorry for not having ADD.

You were asking about DaBackpack. I have only seen him post once or twice. I have no push one way or the other on him at this point. I only quoted you to troll that you put lunching rather than lynching.
I've already discussed who I'm suspicious of and why and it hasn't really changed much since then.

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

In my opinion, Psychoangel is currently the most suspicious person.
She's been occasionally lurking since this kicked off, but has yet to post as far as I know.

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

with less statistics what im saying is clear like 4ish people that you feel comfortable clearing and pick like 3 people you feel comfortable wolfing and then go with your comfort in the lynch and see how others try to move or control it once you get there and state it openly

don't be afraid of being manipulated for stating your honest opinions because if someone is going to do that the rest of the humans will be watching them do it

and also don't be afraid of havign a stupid opnion because while it will be corrected and it wont necessarily be painless, you have to have every stupid opnion you have be corrected to become any good at this game

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

Maybe lumphobo is the most unnoticed player in this game because he's not playing in it?

rofl i took manti's vote for lumphobo to be totally serious given where it was made

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXXII - Welcome to Disboard~

whatever i said about lumphobo should eb directed to psychoangel as its clear i didnt notice she was playing and she takes up the slot i thought lumphobo took