Re: TWG CVIII: Drekk's Revenge
That is a good point.
I will not deny that it is impossible for Manti to be a wolf.
But the chances of that are so small. Like if you multiply the 1/13 chance that Fojar is the seer with the probability that it even occurred to Manti to fakeclaim... I can't help but look at this situation mathematically, the chances are so slim that it's true. We've talked about pragmatism a lot in this game - pragmatically, the best thing to do is assume the most likely scenario is the truth and use our focus on who else is a wolf. Realistically, the wolves will kill him if the roleblocker dies if he's telling the truth.
Originally posted by Afrobean
I will not deny that it is impossible for Manti to be a wolf.
But the chances of that are so small. Like if you multiply the 1/13 chance that Fojar is the seer with the probability that it even occurred to Manti to fakeclaim... I can't help but look at this situation mathematically, the chances are so slim that it's true. We've talked about pragmatism a lot in this game - pragmatically, the best thing to do is assume the most likely scenario is the truth and use our focus on who else is a wolf. Realistically, the wolves will kill him if the roleblocker dies if he's telling the truth.




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