TWG XL: Mall Madness

[xObserveRx]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Okay, let's see what happens now.

Kagome has been killed. He was BLUE.
rioting has been killed. He was RED.

It is now DAY 4. Day will end WEDNESDAY @ 11:59, or when there's an insta.
For those who may be new to the game, or just forgot: there are now 7 players, 4 votes on a name will be an instalynch (as 4 is more than 50% of 7...)

1. nijatwo (Rebelnija)
6. Kilgamayan (bjstrattonIM)
9. StoicRoviaS (StoicRoviaS)
10. Z3ratul (Z3narb)
11. DiscoBobbyPARANOiA (DBP TWG)
12. Afrobean (Afrobean16)
13. mead1 (Fhqwhgads703)

[rioting]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Haha, can't say I didn't see that coming. This was a very interesting first game to play...

See everyone in post game I suppose, and good luck greens because you're going to need it.

ps. Good job afro and aperson (iggy too i suppose) for calling me out at the very beginning.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

It's amazing that me waking up an refreshing the thread 3-4 times throughout the morning actually paid off.

I'm glad the last minute switch to rioting paid off last night.

I think this needs to be brought up right now. I'm not the real sk, nija is.

The 'pm I accidentally posted on the thread' was indeed a pm, and it said this:

----
Okay, I trust you to not tell anyone any of what I'm about to tell you.

I'm not really the sk, nija is.

He came to me on day 2 after talisman died for exactly the reasons I posted, none of that was false. I decided last night to come out as sk that way it'd be easier to talk to people about it, and so if the wolves ever go after nija they will lose their kill. When it comes time to lynch me, i'm going to come out with all of this and have nija lynched. I need you to tell me that you'll stick up for me so we don't lynch another human.

The other people who know are:

Nija
Kagome

Also, the reason I trust you is because you came up green last night and I was pretty sure you were human anyways.
--
Nija will come forward and post it when he gets on, we've talked about it.

Also, afro knows as I told him last night so he can attest to it as well.

Right now the game sits at:


red
red

SK

green
green
green
green

If we lynch nija today, it puts the game at

red
red

green
green
green

going into tomorrow, which means we CANNOT pick wrong once.

I'm nearly positive that the last two wolves are within:

Kilga
Zeratul
Mead

If we leave nija alive another day, and get one wolf between now and tomorrow (be in lynch or sk) and we lynch him tomorrow, the game will go on the next day with one human and one wolf. Which I think would be a tie? (parity is after lynch if I recall corectly)

Gah. This doesn't look good.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Also worth adding to my last paragraph, if my assumptions are correct and the last two wolves are in that set of three, we WILL kill one if we lynch one of those people and sk one of those people.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Gah, triple post.

If everyone could PM me a list of highest to lowest, that'd be great.

[nijatwo]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Yeah, so basically if it's time to lynch me, it's time to lynch. Would have come out myself but wasn't sure my motives would be interpreted. What I see, is if you lynch me today, you must pick correctly for the next set of kills. If I stay alive, there can be another night kill, but that's only been successful once (ie rioting). Let me know what the plan is, I'm on aim tonight.

[Z3ratul]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

I just installed Burning Crusade (WoW), so this will probably be my last post today. All I ask is regardless of who gets voted, don't let an insta happen, since that's the last thing the greens need. We need the extra discussion time right now.

That said, I'm pretty convinced Afro and DBP are humans, and nija is indeed SK.

DBP and I talked about a lot of this last night, I was thoroughly convinced nforcer was red, but apparently I was off on that. I'm glad my rioting suspicion was on. Gonna vote for mead unless anything comes up, waiting until tomorrow to cast it to avoid any chance of an insta.

The game plan was basically covered by DBP, so have at it.

[nijatwo]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Based on connections established early in the game, comments from the recent cardflip-ees (nforcer + rioting), I'm going with kilga and mead as the remaining two wolves. Additionally, if hans was indeed a wolf, I think he deserves an inactivity ban for being a wolf twice and not playing twice.

[StoicRoivaS]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Confirming DBP/nija. What was said is the truth (as I know it). Also confirming last 2 wolves to come from the list of 3, by my best guess. I'll have to sit down and think of exact numbers at some point but my gut/intuition reaction is to let nija give us one more SK. I'll think it through later.

[StoicRoivaS]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Also, if someone would be so kind as to summarize the exact endgame conditions/scenarios, I'm sure we'd all be thankful. I'll be busy until much later tonight so if any motivated person would like to beat me to it, feel free. From what I recall nija is vulnerable when wolves >= humans, but I don't recall if any rulings or clarifications were made on what exactly happens when the # of humans gets close to # of wolves. i.e. does game still end when wolves = humans post lynch, or does the SK throw that off by one?

PS: That's at Observer also.

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

I'd like to know what I've done to be lumped in that final group of 3. >_>

Examining whether or not to lynch nija, there are several chains of events to look at. The easiest one is assuming we lynch nija. Tomorrow night's wolf kill would put us at 3 humans vs. 2 wolves. Not a particularly desirable situation.

If we choose not to lynch nija and instead end up lynching a wolf, three things could happen (assuming the wolves do not attack one of their own).

- Two humans die overnight. This leaves 2 humans, 1 wolf and the serial killer. This scenario is mathematically impossible for us to win because we have the lowest EoG priority (in terms of 1v1s, SK > Wolf > Human).
- One human and one wolf dies overnight, leaving no wolves. We lynch nija and the humans win. \o/
- One human dies overnight because nija and the wolves picked the same target. I don't see this as likely but it's possible. This would leave three humans, one wolf and the SK. Presumably nija will get voted off here (because he has to die for us to win and if we go for the lone wolf and miss we're done), leaving a three-way scenario between two humans and a wolf. Not a good situaiton historically but better than 3 and 2.

If we choose not to lynch nija today and instead lynch a human, things are much worse.

- If a human and a wolf die overnight, we are left with two humans, one wolf and the SK, which is (again) mathematically impossible for us to win.
- If two humans die overnight, we are left with two wolves, one human and the SK, which is no different than the previous scenario from our standpoint. >_>
- If one human dies (same target), we are left with two wolves, two humans and the SK. This is also mathematically impossible for us to win.

Basically, if we decide not to lynch nija today, we better be DAMN sure we get a wolf because we're 100% fucked if we don't.

[nijatwo]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

As long as I'm alive, game continues. However, if wolves outnumber humans the game ends (because they know who I am now). So basically, treat me as a human for all intents and purposes in calculation.

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

I think the only time the wolves will outnumber the humans with you around is the 1 human + 2 wolves + SK scenario, which would play out during the day, making whether the wolves can attack you or not irrelevant.

[nijatwo]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

@kilga: whether you lynch me today or tomorrow, all other lynches MUST be wolves. If I'm lynched today, then 1 human dies tonight, and there are 3h v 2w. If a wolf is not killed the next day, then there are 2w v 1h = wolf win. If I'm not lynched today, we still need perfect kills to win.

Of course, saying we lynch and sk you and mead (you being kilga), then the next day is 3h + sk. human victory.

To be honest, I'm about done with this game. If I survive the day, I'm getting my kill decision from the kilga/mead pool. If we don't get a wolf today though, it doesn't matter.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Out of those three... how many have been seer'd as human?

rofl

Anyway, I'm sure I mentioned this to DBP over AIM the other day. I believe Kilga to be more human than most of the current living players. As such, I would prefer the other two killed before him, although, really, order is quite unimportant.

Of course, this is assuming that we only have those three to choose from for kill choices.