TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

[FoJaR]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

sorry for not being around so much, my internet was out all day, and because i'm "borrowing" from the neighbors, i dont have much control over it.

anyways, so far i'm looking at shash, iggy, omega and tass.

admittedly with tass it may just be my jerk detector like it was with wilkin last game, although last time i thought he was a wolf (and got my spot given away by afro when i told him i wasnt going to make it on for a day or two before hand) and he was.

so for now i'm going to vote for tps, because he's a quiet wolf.

[CypherToorima]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I've been talking alot with iggy about his everyone sending me their guardian picks. I see where he's coming from. I don't think it's a great idea, but I can see it working how he wants it to, maybe. Maybe.

And tass, come on. I don't think you would have pulled that. You're honestly too smart. Sure if it worked, you are in like no other, but what was the actual possibility of the guard woking. I see it as a high risk vs. High benefit.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I see it as a high risk vs. High benefit.

Who called my name? XD.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Yeah, I was mostly joking about the whole not having a problem with Tass getting lynched before, but honestly, after this ****, I'd say he deserves it more than anyone else.

i had died 3 straight night 1s... so logic would say i'd be most likely again

Honestly, have you ever played this game before? Because it was somewhat expected, even if you're human, I really wouldn't see the wolves attacking you, if only because they expected at least SOME of the people to protect you night 1 for no other reason than "ur tass lolz" It's best to sidestep risk completely, and this is especially true, because look at all the people who are pointing fingers at you now.

medium to low risk situation vs high reward.

yeah because a 50% chance at best is low risk

me wolfing myself would have been best strat had i been a wolf

So you would honestly say that you think that you would risk something IN THIS GAME WHICH YOU HOLD SO DEAR, TO SOMETHING AS SIMPLE AS A 50/50 CHANCE?

and in this post: http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...8&postcount=85, he goes from defending himself in one paragraph right into pointing the finger at someone else. I really hate it when people do that. It's like, "listen, people are suspicious of you. Why do you think you pointing fingers with evidence like 'dur they ain't got no evidence' is worth anything more than the fingers which have already pointed at you? Really, when people are looking at you as a wolf, they're a lot less likely to take things you say seriously, so why bother with that **** RIGHT AFTER DEFENDING YOURSELF LIKE THAT" And the worst part is that he goes on to literally point a finger at everyone else in the game.

ps I apologize for the caps. I in no way intend for it to seem like I'm yelling or anything. They really should be simply bold, but I don't feel like fussing with formatting.

[Shashakiro]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Actually, Tass wolfing himself seems perfectly logical to me.

The point is this: if the guard worked, the wolves win. Period. I don't think there'd be any recovery from any wolf, least of all Tass, becoming a "confirmed" human, nor do I think anyone would actually go so far as to try to doubt him after that--he'd make sure they got lynched anyway even if they did.

If the guard didn't work, well, he'd be dead, but you do not lose the game when you die. You lose the game when your team loses. His team would suffer a major blow, but they wouldn't lose, and could definitely recover.

So it's winning vs. a setback. And Tass figures that he gets maybe 4, 5 non-wolf guards from his plea (which seems reasonable to me), plus 3 wolf guards, and he's got more than a 50/50 chance. 50% chance of winning the game, 50% chance of suffering a setback but NOT losing. The odds are definitely in the wolves' favor.

This wouldn't work with anyone else because Tass is really the only person who can pretty much be guaranteed a reasonable number of non-wolf guards. Anyone else is probably looking at a 25% or even smaller chance of the guard working, and that would be far too big a risk.

Logic is the key here, and everything Tass has said so far seems logical to me (unlike what some others have said).

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

ok, so shash is a wolf with tass.

Losing a wolf for no reason night 1 when there are only 3 in the first place IS ENOUGH TO LOSE THE GAME OVER. Hell, I lost a game as a wolf before mostly because one of my team mates was seer'd day 1. Had he not been seer'd and subsequently lynched, the chances of winning that game would have been substantially better.

For the wolves, staying alive is HUGE. Humans are expendable, but giving up a wolf night 1 over a risk with it's best possible outcome being around 50% is totally not worth it.


ps

And Tass figures that he gets maybe 4, 5 non-wolf guards from his plea (which seems reasonable to me), plus 3 wolf guards, and he's got more than a 50/50 chance.

16 total players, right? 3 wolves, right?

So you're saying that 7/16 and 8/16 (your numbers here of "maybe 4, 5 non-wolf guards from his plea (which seems reasonable to me)" in addition to the presumed 3 wolf choices) is not actually 43.75% and 50% respectively? And I'd say that's in the upper register of how many people would vote to guard Tass.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Hahahahahahh it's too bad afro already said something about Tass's turn around to the offensive mode, but I've been anything but illogical or unanalytical here. I didn't jump on you because you weren't killed, I don't think anyone is really saying that seriously anymore. That fact is just an addition to the other evidence that's floating around. Here's a snippet of conversation that I had with Tass yesterday, that I've been pondering and pondering ever since.

4:19:37 PM insanelikeafish: the only reason i have to believe you is the fact that you would probably wolf yourself if you were a wolf
4:20:43 PM tasselfoot: swear to god, i would have.
4:20:57 PM tasselfoot: kilga laughed when i told him. pity i didn't get to do it.
4:21:22 PM insanelikeafish: it's a really good plan
4:21:49 PM insanelikeafish: yet i know how you feel about killing yourself
4:21:53 PM insanelikeafish: even with such a payoff
4:22:03 PM insanelikeafish: i don't know if you could bring yourself to hurt your own team
4:22:09 PM insanelikeafish: for how high the risk was
4:22:15 PM tasselfoot: i would have.
4:22:21 PM tasselfoot: i figured it would have been about 14/16 chance.
4:22:33 PM tasselfoot: plus, im a ****ty wolf and would likely have been lynched anyway.

BUT, however much you try and act like you don't care about this game, I know you care, probably more so this time because of how many times you've been wolfed night 1. I'll be around today until about noon or maybe a little after, then I've got work until 11 tonight, so I'm placing a vote on Mr. M. P. Tasselfoot.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Oh snap, the voting doesn't end until tomorrow! Sweet. Well then that's a nice early placeholder vote that I will continue to contemplate.

[Shashakiro]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Losing a wolf for no reason night 1 when there are only 3 in the first place IS ENOUGH TO LOSE THE GAME OVER.

I disagree. The wolves can win with 2. It's harder, but certainly not impossible by any stretch of the imagination.

On the other hand, a human-confirmed yet actually-wolf Tass? Game over. They'd never lynch him, and he'd make sure of it. That alone is enough.

Regardless of whether Tass actually would get 50%, at the very least he thinks he would have (which is reasonable IMO) and, like I said, if there's a 50% chance of you winning with an action, with the other 50% not making you lose, you go with it. The odds are with you to win.

However, this is all a pointless argument anyway. Tass was trying to say that because he didn't do that, he must be human...but that's not what I think exonerates him. What exonerates him in my eyes is the fact that a LOT of people have seemingly been trying VERY hard to find any excuse to lynch him, despite the fact that he is the single most useful green to the humans in the game--and I'm almost certain some of these people are wolves.

Now, I must say I'm totally unsurprised by the bandwagon against Tass. Who's the biggest threat to the wolves? Tass. Who are they most afraid of? Tass. In this game, however, it's risky to wolf him because there's a good chance he might get guarded on ANY night. So, of course, they try to lynch him as quickly as possible before anyone gets the idea that he's human. That's what I see going on here.

As of now, I'm going to cast my vote for the person who started the bandwagon against Tass and has been relatively quiet since, except for throwing another little comment against him: blahblah18. From what I've heard, blah is a power player, and yet his reasoning against Tass was short and flawed--so he gets my vote for now.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO WILL I EVER GET A CHANCE TO PLAY A GAME WITH TALISMAN??????

ps I'm right there with you blahblah, but I hate voting early. Tass is probably a wolf.

Uh huh... logic and analysis flowing out the ass... right....

Look at Tass's first post at night, he lays down the law like he's so good at doing when he is trying to help the humans by giving them a plan. The problem with this is, he always does it a certain same way when he's a wolf. Here are some examples.

from XXVI
from XX
some examples on the first page of XXXI

Coupled with the fact that Tass has been night 1 kill fro like what, 4 out of the 5 last games, and magically isn't this time when it would've been so low risk, I think it's safe to say we could bag ourselves a wolf day 1.

Sup faulty logic, as I said in my 1st post after you posted this.

Tass: lol i'm so great look at me eorieorieorieorieori

Seriously, shut up, I've been doing stuff today becuase i've finally gotten a break. Now that people are gone, I'll gladly take a look at what people have said, which will probably result* in a vote on you 8)

<3

*EDIT: it said resort rofl

More brilliance.



Then your 4th post was this morning... as opposed to another post last night, which your 3rd post hinted at. And I've already given my reasoning as to why you're wrong in post #4. Plus the convo doesn't help you. That convo took place before a bunch of people all came forward saying they didn't guard me. At night 1, I would have figured it to have been at least 75%. Since day 1 started, I've changed those estimates in my statements to better fit what would appear to be reality.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Just because you say I'm wrong, doesn't mean you're not lying and you're not a wolf. Plus, it's the style in which you post your human game plan that tips me off, not just that you do it. Just the games where there are unorthadox blue roles and opportunities for alliances when you're a wolf, you come out and try to make everything happen one way, arguing it's the ONLY POSSIBLE PATH TO VICTORY. Now, whether or not it actually is remains to be seen, but you've still been following your wolfy pattern this game.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

On the other hand, a human-confirmed yet actually-wolf Tass? Game over. They'd never lynch him, and he'd make sure of it.

Read this game right now: http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...ad.php?t=30148

brief synopsis taken from history page:

TPS is insane. He convinced Afro (guardian) that he was human and then wolfed himself. He had everybody (except Afro, oddly enough) pretty much convinced of his humanity until the last day, when he got lynched suddenly. This was (I think) the LONGEST TWG EVER (at least in the number of pages). It has also set a record as the first TWG with 2 guardings, including the guarding of a wolf. But seriously, I'm glad it's finally over. GEEZ!

Admittedly, Tass would probably be better at talking out of it, but Tps was rather convincing as well. In short, games with guardings which may be wolves shouldn't be trusted 100%. And why would we trust a guarded individual anyway? Sure, stick him to the back of the wolfiness list, but to "never lynch" him or her would be just retarded, especially in this game where wolves have a chance of picking the guarding target.

EDIT:

He convinced Afro (guardian) that he was human and then wolfed himself. He had everybody (except Afro, oddly enough) pretty much convinced of his humanity until the last day, when he got lynched suddenly.

rofl that is only partially true. I was wary of Tps ever since guarding him, but I let up for a while only to go all out on him towards the end of the game.

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

More like attack me when I wasn't there(stupid camping).

I haven't read the rest of the thread yet. 1 min.

[flypie743]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

On the other hand, a human-confirmed yet actually-wolf Tass? Game over. They'd never lynch him, and he'd make sure of it. That alone is enough.

I agree with Afro. You think that not ONE of all of us players would come up with the idea that Tass might be a wolf and wolfed himself to confirm his humanity? I can assure you in that situation it would definitely come into conversation. The outcome of the situation (tass being lynched/tass talking his way out of it), who knows, but I guarantee the idea would be discussed and it would not be an automatic game over.

edit for typo again

[flypie743]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Look at Tass's first post at night, he lays down the law like he's so good at doing when he is trying to help the humans by giving them a plan. The problem with this is, he always does it a certain same way when he's a wolf. Here are some examples.

from XXVI
from XX
some examples on the first page of XXXI

Coupled with the fact that Tass has been night 1 kill fro like what, 4 out of the 5 last games, and magically isn't this time when it would've been so low risk, I think it's safe to say we could bag ourselves a wolf day 1.

I also think that this logic is not strong enough to vote off Tass. First, fish only pulled examples from wolf games - we need to compare his human plans to his wolf plans and see if he does it any differently; just wolf plans aren't helping us because Tass lays down the law in every game. I mentioned this to fish in the chat, but I guess he didn't see it. I'm gonna go look up some of Tass's plans as a human and see if there is any striking difference between those and the ones fish picked out.