TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

i think later he said he didn't mean me

[StoicRoivaS]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Ok, I'm positive I'm going to get a lot of crap for this, but here's the best I could possibly come up with:

Back to the idea of a strategy for guarding, I'm convinced that there has to be something for us to gain by organizing our votes. Think about this, we have 10+ players that will (hopefully) cooperate to the letter, and 3 or less people that are going to try and screw with the plan, on top of that we have 2 players that are "confirmed" human and can manage things behind the scenes, nearly 100% out of wolves reach of influence. Given this alone I am convinced that there has to be a better plan than random guarding/guard yourself. If we were to go with the everyone guard themselves route, we would have 1 out of (number of humans * number of players) chance for a guard, and I don't think I need to point out the fact that those are horrible odds. I was thinking about this fact and came to the conclusion that there must be something better than 1/130 or 0.8%.

Here's where the problem comes in: If any plan is divulged to the public, the wolves have it just as much as cypher does, and thusly will have/find a way to abuse it to their advantage. With this in mind, I came up with the best idea I possibly could. I looked over many many situations and think I have the best one. If everyone is willing, I'll send my ideas to cypher, and he'll coordinate PMs to everyone telling them who to guard. The humans will [hopefully] listen as instructed and the wolves will be given their 3 names to observe and ponder over. They'll see a list of 3 random names and will hopefully have no real plan to abuse the guard strategy.

So, again, if the problem isn't clear by now, I'll spell it out a bit more clearly. I'll propose and idea to cypher and he and the mystery vigi can tell the forum how good or bad they think it is. If it's agreed upon by enough people, cypher and vigi will send us all people to guard, and those of us that are humans will guard who we are told to. aka, I'M NOT DIVULGING THE PLAN AT ALL, NOT HERE AND NOT TO ANYONE THAT DOESN'T ALREADY KNOW IT.

There is one person that I discussed it with (to confirm my logic/stats with) and myself. So yes, this is asking a bit of faith on my part. I'm pretty new to TWG but I'll assure you I'm no slouch in reality, and the other person that I discussed the idea with is more than respected here. So you'll be trusting me and player X to actually be human, and you'll be trusting me, player X, cypher, and the mystery vigi to come up with a reasonable plan. Yes, that's a very large amount of trust to be throwing around, but I ask you, what would you be doing with your votes otherwise? You'd be guarding yourself or guarding a top tiered player. You know whether or not you're human, but you can't be sure about the top tiered player. I'm doing the best I can for my team and I don't expect my proposal to come off well on anyone, but I've considered every case I can think of, and this is the best way.

Let me know what you all think. If it's accepted by enough people, I'll PM cypher with instructions and he can get the idea out by the next game day. Peace.

[flypie743]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Please don't misunderstand Iggy's idea. His idea is viable, although maybe not immensely helpful, it is viable. Iggy did not suggest that guard votes be "out in public". Iggy suggested that we informally PM our picks to Cypher (a "confirmed" human) and have him keep them. The purpose of this has yet to be fully discovered/decided upon/implemented, but unless many very smart people became randomly stricken with retardedness, this holds no drawbacks against the humans; unless of course you don't trust Cypher... Hope this clears up the confusion.

Iggy did suggest for our guard votes to be publicized. Here are two quotes that show that in case you missed it.

How about if everyone sent thier choice to cypher and he posted them all?

I still think that everyone should give who they guarded last night.

Omega was the one who suggested that we PM cypher our picks and he keeps them as a future tool for finding wolves and as you can see a page back I made a post agreeing with him.

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Stoic: That's pretty unorthodox...A plan that neither side is in on (except the 2 humans). Huh. I dunno. Maybe. Maybe! As they say, "It just might be crazy enough to work!"

The question is if people still want to do the "You get your lotto picked for you" thing.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Stoic... 2 things.

1. your statistics are quite wrong. 1/130, or something around there, would be the odds if only ONE human had a vote. You need to multiply that odds for 1 human by the number of human votes to get the actual odds. simple probability in action... and I thought you said you were a math major?

2. you're put your faith, apparently, into a random player... so not only are we to trust YOU with an idea that most people don't particularly agree with... we now have to trust a SECOND person. Not to mention you say he is well respected, which leads me to believe someone like blah, who has been fairly suspicious to most of us. cause you sure didn't come to me about it. odds of being ****ed in the ass? high.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Gay, why isn't Tass dead? I was sort of leaning human on tps; all the things said about him so far could've pushed that the other way, but Tass did kill him off, which makes him human again in my eyes.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

fish we'll just have to make sure to kill him tonight.... ooooops

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I would just like to point out that all the people I was looking forward to playing with this game have either been replaced or killed (sans Tass, but he's a wolf!). I am very much put out.

ps @blah rolfelofle kk

[StoicRoivaS]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

@ Flypie: Yes, and it was later observed that putting them out in the open is a horrible idea, as I knew all along, and the question then became whether or not we should send them to Cypher and have him do something with them where something had yet to be determined. I've given my best shot at that something and if too many people don't want to try it I won't bring it back up.

@ Tass: No, my numbers are right. The wolves have to pick a human to wolf (assuming they're wolfing a human, obviously) aka, the number of humans, and the host has to pick a guard ticket, aka the number of players, and since there is only one way for this to happen, odds become 1/(number of players * number of humans) and, yes, I am a math major.

@ Tass Version 2.0: Your consolation here is not that you're trusting me and player X though, your consolation is in the fact that, from what I'm told, Cypher is not exactly brain dead, like a few other people here. So obviously you have little to no reason to trust me, and if my mystery player were fish, you'd have no reason to trust him, but I imagine most of you know Cypher and you also have another mystery person to accept/deny/censor/alter my idea in the mystery vigi. So, yes, don't trust me, because you hardly have a reason to, but for the good of the humans I'm asking that between 4 people, 2 known and 2 unknown, you trust at least one. That's not that much to ask, and if i thought it were I wouldn't have suggested it. Take it as you will, but don't come to me later with glistening eyes of hope.

@ Omega: Thanks for the [slight] consideration.

But why cnt u tell me teh plan LOL. I Prmise I wnt tel ne1 ROFL!!1exclamationpoint

I'll tell you the plan if you get officially declawed and defanged with Kilga. Please don't ask what this procedure entails. It's painful and still in it's experimental phases.

That's all for now. More comments would be appreciated [by those of you that have posted less than me even though I'm in as a mid-game sub]. Peace.

Edit: Prettyness, clarity

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Telling us who to guard is a damn bad idea. Even with the forced guard choices evenly among 3 players, the wolves would still likely get at least 2 of the people that are to be guarded. The third, I assume, wouldn't be too difficult to guess. So basically, the whole plan would be instantly unraveled right there and the wolves could avoid them if they want, or they could simply attack anyway.

Splitting the guard in that way doesn't even increase the chances of a successful guard than people choosing themselves (assuming of course that people who have no chance of being wolfed aren't being retarded and voting themselves when given the choice). Basically, all that would be done is the votes would be evened out between likely human players, instead of the upper tiers who seem more human having more votes, which, in my opinion makes a whole lot more sense.

In short: the wolves will see through who is being guarded. The guards will be worthless enough for it to still be worth the wolves to attack, even if there is a team of forced guard votes on them. It's when votes are TOTALLY unknown to the wolves that we have highest chance of successful guarding, even if that chance is already low as hell.

How many times do I have to say this?

Oh and by the way, I'm pretty sure I already saw through the real plan anyway. It won't work. If it's what I've assumed it to be, then the wolves will figure it out as soon as they get their guarding assignments from cypher.

and @ ap: so basically, you realized your idea was useless and could be taken as wolfy behavior. Then, instead of posting in the thread saying "Oh yeah, that's right... that plan is ****ed up," you simply slipped into the background.

[aperson]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

and @ ap: so basically, you realized your idea was useless and could be taken as wolfy behavior. Then, instead of posting in the thread saying "Oh yeah, that's right... that plan is ****ed up," you simply slipped into the background.

Yeah sorry ****** I didn't make some cut and dry conclusion to it because I don't see everything as a route to bump my post count up. God knows I need a big red period at the end of every thought I come up with so dumb ******s like you can realize it's through and toss it into the archives.


By the way the chance of a guard is not 1/130 stoic you are giving actual math majors like me a bad name.

[MilfeulleSakuraba]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Oh Jesus I need to never update on a night with a Red Sox game, a Patriots game and SmackDown! ever again.

I'll have something together soon.

[MilfeulleSakuraba]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Rodney Carney pointed at a TV screen in the back room. "Hey, he's coming out again!"

They all watched as David Stern walked up to the podium. Several people in the crowd shifted in their seats in anticipation. The announcement that followed was one of the weirdest in recent draft memory.

"Well folks, we're experiencing some communication difficulties. Initially, we had recieved word that the Knicks had made a trade up to this position in order to draft Brandon Roy. However, we have since recieved word from both the Knicks and the Bobcats that this was not the case, and in fact had never been discussed seriously. As such, there were be two minutes added on to the clock for the Hornets to work with."

A slight murmur ran through the audience, which wasn't sure what to make of this information, if anything at all. The attitude in the back room, however, was slightly happier, as Roy sank back into his chair. "Hoo, thank God." Some of the other players clapped for the good news of narrowly-avoided disaster.

---

Tasselfoot (Randy Foye)
FishFishRevolution (J.J. Redick)
GuidoHunter (Saer Sene)
JurseyRider734 (Shelden Williams)
flypie743 (Rudy Gay)
Shashakiro (Cedric Simmons)
CypherToorima (LaMarcus Aldridge)
StoicRoivaS (Rodney Carney)
Kefit (Brandon Roy)
blahblah18 (Hilton Armstrong)
Omeganitros (Andrea Bargnani)
aperson (Adam Morrison)
Afrobean (Ronnie Brewer)
Wilkin (Thabo Sefolosha)

It is now Day 2, and Kefit has been attacked and saved!

You have until Monday at 12:01 AM Eastern to vote. Guido already has one phantom, let's try to avoid getting any more.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

hahahahaha owned

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

btw, cypher and vigi do nothing yet obv