TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Where are:

FoJaR
Tps
Wilkin
Cypher

At this time?

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Birthday.

BB Thursday.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I'm not going to lie, I don't have the time or patience right now to determine complete wolfishness for a well-rounded vote today. All I can say is I think there is at least one wolf between Tass, ap, and blah. Vote subject to change if I look through the thread again before I go to work tomorrow.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

THIS JUST IN: I get out of work tomorrow at 8 Eastern, so I should be online for the last 15 minutes or so of the day. I may re-vote/swing vote then.

[StoicRoivaS]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I'm taking over Iggy's spot for those of you that missed Kilga's post.

A few things:

1)
I completely agree with Iggy's original idea of pooling guard votes at cypher, but disagree with split/pooled voting between a few people via cypher sending specific suggestions back to each player. As mentioned earlier, this gives the wolves a chance to take away our best human (and thusly wolf) finding tool; the successful guard. Ap says it best here:

It might not be very useful at all (and imo, probably isn't), but at least it's something. Really look at the risk versus reward... There's zero risk and possibly some reward that could come out of it.

Sure the wolves may (aka probably will) lie, but in the end it's still information that a human has that the wolves don't, and given that there are more humans and less wolves, it's at least over 50% accurate, assuming no human finds a reason to lie.

2)

Um

I would be REALLY hesitant to trusting anyone guarded basically at all.

Well, sure, trust them as much as you'd trust anyone in this game saying "I'm human" but don't trust them any more than that.

I don't see why afro is so against trusting a guarded person. If it were Tass and it were night one, I'd agree wholeheartedly. The idea came to me as well. With his rep and the number of guard votes he got (from people who will and will not admit it), it's certainly worth the risk, but on any other night, with any other person, the idea is near suicide for the wolves unless we hand feed them plenty of votes onto one of their own, in which case it would be quite possible. This is one of my main points against splitting votes between a few players via cypher (see above), but if we can all see that to be a bad idea, it won't happen. So now that we've established that we're not discussing a guarded Tass on N1, and we're not spoon feeding the wolves a brilliant idea, why exactly would you not trust a guarded person, afro? A guarded person is the best thing we have for finding humans (and thusly wolves) save for the bane and vigi, obviously. I cannot think of a single other situation in which I'd trust someone more. Conversations are faked and screenshots are doctored (*cough* TWG15 *cough*), but actions are real. The wolves would be taking an insane chance to pull a stunt like that. Unless I'm missing something important, you should explain your idea a little more, because as I see it, it's the best thing we have right now.

3)
A vote chart, more for myself than anyone else, but I typed it up into my notepad file on the game, so it's just as easy to paste here for everyone else:

Tasselfoot (2) - Fish, Blah
Tps222 (1) - FoJar
blahblah18 (2) - Shash, Ap
aperson (2) - Kefit, Afro
Afrobean (1) - Stoic

So, for now, placeholder goes to Afro simply because I think a guarded person is the best thing we have to a certainty, save bane/vigi, of course, and I trust that human Afro would be smart enough to see this. Unless I get on when I wake up tomorrow, 4pm, which I'll try to, I probably won't be back within the day. Let me know if I messed up any votes. Peace.

Edit: Didn't include my own vote on the chart, ROFL.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I think a guarded person is the best thing we have to a certainty

because something which is almost certain is worth risking the game over when we already have two 100% sure things

Anyway, you seem to have missed the point I was trying to make. So I'll try one more time.

Just because someone is guarded does not mean they are necessarily human. They definitely do not deserve to be accepted into an alliance, or treated as a 100% human. Their hightened chance of human is worth something, but it is not worthy of them being immune to being lynched.

Basically: take all guardings with a grain of salt.

also:

we hand feed them plenty of votes onto one of their own, in which case it would be quite possible

so basically, as long as we don't vote to guard an upper tier player, we'll be fine, right? dur

screenshots are doctored

unless I'm mistaken, that's cheating rofl

it's the best thing we have right now.

no, the best thing we have is the solid bane/vigi alliance

[StoicRoivaS]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I obviously would not condone telling them who the vigi is, there is no reason they need to know, but if we have one person "confirmed" human through guarding, and they want to take the suggestions of the already formed alliance as to who to vote because they're "in" then I don't see where we should stop them. With no seer it means very little when it comes to where accusations for votes come from, but if the "confirmed" person is blatantly voting to save someone on the chopping block, you have a problem, otherwise, where's the harm in trusting them? The bane is out, and there's no reason to divulge the identity of the vigi so what else is there? Lying about the guard vote, big whoop.

Yes, screenshotting anything is illegal as far as I understand the rules, and I'm sure altering it doesn't help your case, that wasn't my point at all. My point was that digital things lie, or at least always have the potential to lie. You can reset clocks, edit photos, cut/copy/paste text, it's all subjective, that was my point, and when a game such as TWG is won and lost based ENTIRELY on the pm's each player sends to the host, it's safe to say that one's actions carry more weight than any digital evidence. That was my point.

we hand feed them plenty of votes onto one of their own, in which case it would be quite possible

so basically, as long as we don't vote to guard an upper tier player, we'll be fine, right? dur

No, as long as we don't tell them that we're placing a large portion of the total guard votes onto someone they know is a wolf, upper tier or not, we'll "be fine". Again, I know you're smarter than this. My vote stands stronger than before.

[GuidoHunter]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Doctored screenshots are fine. Just as you aren't to trust every AIM convo 100%, you shouldn't trust screenshots, either. Of course, anyone who would resort to posting a screenshot probably has doctored it already, and considering we haven't had a single screenshot posted in ages, it's not much of a problem.

However, screenshotting a PM from the host, whether doctored or not, is strictly illegal.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Hey Andy... posting ANY screenshot AT ALL is against the rules. Way to represent TWC, bro. Now enough discussion of cheating, seriously. I got his point right from the start... no sense in attacking it for stupid reasons that are clearly not his intention, Afro.

[CypherToorima]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Sorry I haven't posted lately, it was my bro's birthday yesterday, and today we went out to eat, and I have band everyday from 5 to 9 till the weekend (and subsequently the start of school).

Anyways, I haven't been able to read too much from the thread, but here's what I got.

Afro seems human because he seems wolfy. I know, not the greatest logic, but that's how I know afro.

but on the opposite end of the spectrum, tps seems wolfy because he seems human. Not the greatest logic still, but if you look at last game, he was generally accepted as human, but he wasn't. Also, I thought we had gotten somewhat close that game, and hoped that this game we could get on AIM and talk about ideas and stuff, but he has yet to I.M.(unless he did and I forgot, but I doubt it) this game, and I really thought he would.

Sorry again for not being super-active, but don't think I haven't read through the thread a few times through, because I have.

[GuidoHunter]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Hey Andy... posting ANY screenshot AT ALL is against the rules. Way to represent TWC, bro.

That's why there's a council, so that someone else can remind me if I forget a rule. =)

If I may point out a technicality, though, the rules state that you can't SS anything from/with the host or conversations with other players. I can't think of anything else you might want to SS, but whatever...

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Wilkin]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

My thoughts:

1) Blah's idea. The one constant in this situation is Cypher. That means Cypher can do whatever he pleases without anyone else knowing or mattering. Even if the plan is that a few people will get 3 or 4 guards, he could just tell everyone to vote the same person, and no one would be the wiser (assuming no one talked about it with more than four people). For example, if he told everyone to guard X (including the wolves), and the wolves, thinking they just happened to get the majority of guards on X assigned to them, went for someone else and tried to wolf X, then chances are the guard would still happen. This idea would have to be very cleverly done to work.

2) Successful guards. I see a successful guard in this game no more trustworthy than a seer'd human in a game with a MW, and perhaps that's how we should think of all guards. Tonight, for example, there's going to be a 7% chance of a wolf target with one vote being guarded, and I think it's safe to say that most people will have at least 1 vote to their name. In a seer/MW game, tonight's chance of seering a human that is the MW would be 9%, or an 8% chance of seering them in general. Though the circumstances are different, once a person with at least one vote is targeted, the chances would pretty much be the same as seering the person. If they're guarded, they could be the "MW," as it were. If not, they're dead. This is how I think of it, and perhaps it'll calm down the discussion and debating going on.

3) My problem. Today I'm going to be working at the Lincoln Financial Field for the first pre-season game there, and will be gone from noon to eleven at the latest (I'm a supervisor/non-profit liason for the non-profit groups there). Thus, I won't have time to participate in the traditional Day 1 vote-swing-a-thon, and I'll have to make my decision now:

4) My vote. I'm going to go for Omega for the placeholder. I don't feel comfortable voting any of the ones currently on the board, mainly for the fact that I won't be here to change it if something new comes up, and the crazy swinging ensues.

Depending on when I get back tonight (RL), I might be available to post some during the night (not RL).

[StoicRoivaS]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Wilkin, not that I need to keep defending my point, because, frankly, there's no reason to other than the fact that I want to be as active as possible on the thread, but I'll explain further. The situation we're in is really nothing like that of a seered MW. Assuming that seer targets are entirely random, and that there's only 1 MW in a 16 person game the odds are obviously 1/16 or 6.25%. In our situation, we have 16 players (at the start of the game), 3 wolves, and 1 wolfsbane (vigi not important to this argument as he's a) hidden and b) essentially a green for guard/wolf purposes). So assuming the wolves would never try and wolf Cypher, random wolfing would put them at 1/15 or 6.67% or even at 1/12 or 8.33% if they choose to wolf humans only. So, yes, the numbers are similar, but wolves don't wolf randomly, and we don't guard randomly, and the fact of the matter is, unless multiple people announce who they are guarding publicly, the best shot the wolves have at wolfing one of their own would be 3/16 or 18.75%. Granted, as more time goes on the number will rise, but it also becomes less useful and more untrustworthy. Obviously it's possible, but as far as here and now, in this specific game of TWG, it seems highly unlikely. If it were day 5, yeah, question it, but if it happens in the next night or two, I'd be more than happy. Peace and keep the peace.

[FoJaR]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

hey guys i'm sorry, i'm going to have to ask to be replaced. the internet that i was borrowing from the neighbors has gone out, seemingly permanently.

in a few weeks i'll be back at school with net, but for the time being i dont really have internet access (at the library now, cant make it here every day).

sorry for the inconvenience.

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Jurs has agreed to replace FoJaR.

Voting chart coming up in a moment.