TWG 195 - D6

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

oh good, i remembered the spicy take

ill do wagonomics later if i feel like it, i just want to barf it out before i forget again lol.

====

So this might be a touch too far reading into the nightkill but I just found it weird that the last wolf would go for the PR grab rather than try to weaken town by killing off a consensus townread like xiz (wtf?), me, bolth or sunfan.

So making numbers up here but i think theres 2 possible directions this could go in and heres the % chance i think of each (keep in mind these are not mutually exclusive so rip sunfan if thats the case):

70% chance of the last wolf is in the deep towncore or close to it. If this is the case then the remaining PR is a much greater threat to them than being outted from the pool of suspicious people (obv because they arnt a part of it)

55% chance the wolf is a veteran TWG player. I dont think someone without a lot of experience tries to nail the PR here instead of killing the obvious townies or the PR literally right in front of them.

===

The percents are kind of low because again i was planning on cross checking the theory using wagonomics to see if anything popped out at me but didnt get around to it because im mentally weak like a wet noodle and practically have narcolepsy at this point


so yeah

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

so who does my theory make look like shit?

lets check the list

I think the only ones who are consensus town or somewhat close to it are

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sunfan
bolth
xiz (Here for completion sake but come on lol it aint him)
*shadow* (See second list)
choof (Has trended down massively it seems but was somewhat close to being widely townread as of the night of the kill so he gets to be here)

plop is kind of in the twilight zone between categories. He can tentatively join the top category

====

People I dont really think they were townread that much and probably didnt view themselves as such.

XelNya
Funnygurl555
WaywardVagabond
Shadow_God_10

Shadow might have thought he would be? (His eod was kinda weird) Maybe he should be in the top list. Since this was mostly about how the wolf perceived they would be viewed. fuck it ill add him up top

====

Alright so now we take the top list and we bisect it by people who are experience at twg and might make a play like this

sunfan
choof
plop

====

So WHAT DOES IT ALL MEEEEEAAAAN?

Take this list with a massive grain of salt, at this point it is mostly off the cuff speculation and is no substitute for proper reads (unless i happen to be right in which case im a genius bow down).

but even in the form its in now.... if we have a seer and they want to seer someone....

or xiz looking for someone to block....

you could do worse than looking here

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

also i guess im just the person who makes lists and does wagonomics if i live long enough for either of them to matter.

and if i end up nailing the last wolf with the list then lol i become the person who makes lists that kills wolves

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

wolf death note

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

is this guy for real?

I ask very stupid questions sometimes, don't mind me

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

Just checked your list Freezin.

Did you list the three you have from "Most likely to" downwards? or is it in no particular order?

[Bolth mannn]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

Last night sort of makes sense when you consider that if literally anyone other than Shadow is the wolf, they knew they had a free shot to try and get whoever the other PR is, because we all knew exactly who Xiz intended to block. Seems like an unnecessary risk though, when they could have gotten rid of Xiz and played the long game, if they are supposedly part of the town core. My opinion is they are in the scum pile, and killed Zenith to incite chaos, and put some towncore back into the firing range.

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

Just checked your list Freezin.

Did you list the three you have from "Most likely to" downwards? or is it in no particular order?

no order when i made the post.

Though gun to my head i would say plop and choof are more likely than sunfan to be the wolf

[Bolth mannn]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

Though I would REALLY love it if Choof and Xel came in and confirmed whether or not they vigi shot zenith

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

Last night sort of makes sense when you consider that if literally anyone other than Shadow is the wolf, they knew they had a free shot to try and get whoever the other PR is, because we all knew exactly who Xiz intended to block. Seems like an unnecessary risk though, when they could have gotten rid of Xiz and played the long game, if they are supposedly part of the town core. My opinion is they are in the scum pile, and killed Zenith to incite chaos, and put some towncore back into the firing range.

wat

this makes no sense for like 2 reasons

reason 1 is theres no such thing as a free shot because everyone has to die. If I was a wolf and i was not townread, the optimal path to my survival is not picking from the pool im in (People who are suspicious) to make it smaller and make it more likely that ill be outted from it and killed. The optimal play is killing the townread people who just by existing make it more likely ill die with each passing day. which brings up

Reason 2: There is no guarentee the last PR was not also one of the townread people. Barring some kind of PR read on someone its equal odds all the way around.

Putting aside the fact that i personally believe only someone who isnt under pressure could afford to take a PR shot here instead of improve their own position, killing zenith does nothing to put the towncore back into fire range as you said.

Well except what im doing right now with the list.

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

ok i lost the thread halfway thru but let me pick it up

So preface this by saying that after marinading on it i can see the logic in not killing xiz specifically. He was not a threat (at least last night). Both townread!wolf and scumread!wolf would agree on that point.

So townread!wolf would that specific night want the other PR dead. Killing in the towncore doesnt make that much sense unless they have a PR read there

scumread!wolf COULD PR hunt as well. thats why im not uber confident with my list as of now. A lot of moving parts go into a nightkill so hanging my hat on my list would be dumb. THAT BEING SAID, Reducing the pool of suspicious people is not beneficial. My goal should be to kill as many people who are townread as possible so the pool that im a part of makes up the majority of players, to minimize my chances of being roleblocked/seered/vigi'd and also my chances of being lynched.

Hopefully that is a better explaination

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

lol shifted into the first person halfway through.

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

hopefully what im saying makes sense to people other than me

[Wayward Vagabond]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

What if you're the wolf though :thinking:

[Bolth mannn]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

killing zenith does nothing to put the towncore back into fire range as you said.

Well except what im doing right now with the list.

thats what I mean

sorry im not explaining myself well

I feel like all of these are viable thought patterns as a wolf

- I'm safe at the moment but I have an opportunity to get rid of Xiz who is a danger to me and I absolutely should do that and then I can chill out in towncore the rest of the game and try to find the other PR!

- I'm being pretty heavily scumread, maybe if I make a confusing kill, people will think I wasn't feeling pressured, and will start to consider towncore that they wouldn't have otherwise considered.

- I'm safe tonight and probably tomorrow night too, I should try and get rid of the other PR, without considering how that makes me look!

- I'm being pretty heavily scumread, maybe I should kill people attacking me in hopes that I get less pressured in future phases!