TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO WILL I EVER GET A CHANCE TO PLAY A GAME WITH TALISMAN??????

ps I'm right there with you blahblah, but I hate voting early. Tass is probably a wolf.

[flypie743]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I don't think that just because Tass wasn't killed Night 1 means that he is a wolf. Tass was begging to be guarded and I bet the wolves would rather play it safe and kill a still-important and less likely to be guarded player than risk the chance of killing Tass and him being guarded in the lottery. Of course, there is still a chance that he could be a wolf but I don't think we can determine that just from the Night 1 killing.

[Shashakiro]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I agree with Flypie...would've been way too risky for the wolves to go after Tass, so I don't think that his still being alive necessarily makes him a wolf.

Thought blah jumped to conclusions there awfully fast...hmm.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

come on, I know I didn't guard Tass, do you really think he was the #1 choice of guardings? I highly highly doubt it

[Shashakiro]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

If he wasn't the #1 choice for guardings, then why does it follow that he would be the #1 choice for wolfing?

Doesn't make sense.

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Which obviously means I'm not a wolf because I killed Tass night 1 last game, and the wolves would either have to be ballsy or stupid to expect the reverse pyschology of the humans and attempt to kill Tass. I got my eye on you Shash.

[Shashakiro]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

? I was the one who said it makes sense that Tass wasn't killed...

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Exactly.

[CypherToorima]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

If Tass isn't a wolf, I think the wolves were just playing it safe, because they might have thought he would have the majority of guardian picks.

[Shashakiro]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

So because I think it's illogical and risky that the wolves would kill Tass, and Tass wasn't killed, that makes me a wolf?

That's silly reasoning. Flypie said the same thing anyway, and before I did.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

If he wasn't the #1 choice for guardings, then why does it follow that he would be the #1 choice for wolfing?

Doesn't make sense.

You obviously don't understand.

Tass is not a good guarding choice because he asked to be guarded.

He is a good wolf choice because as human, he helps the team greatly, most noteably in games like this where alliances are what wins it.

So basically, in a game where the guardings are nearly useless, the wolves should be going after Tass, especially when it's obvious Tass won't be getting too many votes. Tass is hardly ever lynched as a human, but when he's a wolf he's usually pretty obvious. Knowing this, he should have been wolfed.

His being alive isn't good enough evidence for me to say he's a wolf though. There is always the chance that the wolves didn't realize how bad the chance of guards are and that Tass probably wouldn't have gotten too many of the guard votes.

And one more thing: ap's posts during the night pushing for the vigi to come out in addition to the bane. He seemed to have a good understanding of how bad the odds are for a successful guard. But then he wants us to give up the very little chance of a successful guard for literally nothing? Well, the wolves have something to gain from having the vigi open: they'd have 100% free reign on anyone but the vigi and bain. Like I said though, the humans gain nothing and simply lose their small chance of getting a successful guard. Maybe I misunderstood something, but that's what I got from it.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Look at Tass's first post at night, he lays down the law like he's so good at doing when he is trying to help the humans by giving them a plan. The problem with this is, he always does it a certain same way when he's a wolf. Here are some examples.

from XXVI
from XX
some examples on the first page of XXXI

Coupled with the fact that Tass has been night 1 kill fro like what, 4 out of the 5 last games, and magically isn't this time when it would've been so low risk, I think it's safe to say we could bag ourselves a wolf day 1.

[Shashakiro]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

You obviously don't understand.

Tass is not a good guarding choice because he asked to be guarded.

So basically what you're saying is that everyone will automatically assume that Tass won't be wolfed because the wolves will think he'll be guarded, so they won't guard him. Reverse psychology, no?

But I don't think that it's valid to assume that everyone will go with single reverse psychology. Some people might go with no reverse psychology, thinking that since Tass is the strongest player, he'll be most likely to be wolfed, and so it's best to guard him. Or others might go with double reverse psychology, which will also have them voting to guard Tass because they'll have predicted what you just said, they think Tass will be wolfed, and want a successful guard.

So I really don't think it's unreasonable for the wolves to have thought it a major risk to have gone after Tass, which is probably why he's still alive--not necessarily because he's a wolf.

P.S. I understand just fine, thank you.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Who of you actually voted to guard Tass? I know I didn't.

And honestly, I'd have no problem lynching Tass today. We have two possibilities:

#1: He's a wolf. Obviously good because we want to kill all of the wolves by the end of the game.

#2: He's human. This is good because we can hold it over Tass's head that he got lynched day 1 as a human. Basically, it would be really funny.

and shashakiro: if you understood fully, you would have no problem getting why Tass wouldn't have been voted to be guarded too much.

[GuidoHunter]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I know I voted for Tass. You may not want to admit it, Afro, but his record shows that he's pretty damn useful to the humans. I'm willing to take the random chance that he's a wolf for at least one night in the hope that he can organize things and help us get a victory.

#2: He's human. This is good because we can hold it over Tass's head that he got lynched day 1 as a human. Basically, it would be really funny.

I'm glad you find hurting our team so humorous.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com