TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Thinking about it for the past 60 seconds, I can't see the harm in everyone who guarded Kefit to say so...

But it has the potential to be helpful for a few reasons that I'd rather share only with Cypher. Although it should be obvious if you aren't a retard.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I can, on the chance that he's the vigi and it was only cypher that guarded him. If we don't say then it can't prove it one way or the other.

[aperson]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

what the hell.

No really, that's all I can say... what the hell? This makes no sense no matter what perspective you look at it from.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Fine blah. Then at the least... anyone who voted for Kefit should tell Cypher. Let him work it out with Kefit.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Other good thing about this.... VIGI CAN USE HIS POWER WITHOUT MAJOR CONSEQUENCE! Although it would still be highly recommended to wait to use it.

[aperson]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Okay I definitely see the merit in Tass's idea here: Whoever voted to guard Kefit last night: GO TO CYPHER AND LET HIM KNOW OF YOUR GUARD.

[Shashakiro]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Makes no sense to me...two things I can think of:

1. Kefit and maybe one other random person voted Kefit, wovles tried to kill him, he gets INSANELY lucky

2. Kefit is a wolf and wolves tried the self-wolf trick...which seems even more unlikely because it's WAY too big a risk and I doubt the wolves would be dumb enough to try it (even if, in this case, it worked).

But yeah, everyone who guarded Kefit, tell Cypher, I definitely agree with that.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

rofl sucks for the wolves, may as well give it up now

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

HOLY ****

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

ps - Fish

[StoicRoivaS]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

@ Wolves: ROFL.

Edit @ Tass/Ap, and a thanks to Kilga for being able to multiply: I think I understand now. I was calculating the odds that one person was guarded where as you two are calculating the odds that any person is guarded, with tass multiplying wrong. I think that still more than deserves the appology that I promised. Sorry.

@ Afro: Apparently you're far too shortsighted to understand anything at all. Nevermind.

@ Tass/Everyone: Please don't misunderstand Tass's comments on overall game day progression with respect to the vigi and guards and wolfings and everything. Tass is saying that when the wolves screw up, aka tonight, we can screw up, aka vigi and human, and not be put behind. He is not saying that there is no risk to vigi'ing someone. I know that for some of you (yes, some, not most, because you're all dumb) this doesn't need to be said, but for the people who feel all fuzzy when mighty Tass says something reassuring, please don't misunderstand.

@ Kefit: Um, hi?!

@ Blah/Tass/Ap: DIE WOLVES!!!!

@ Kilga: Thanks for stacking the teams

[MilfeulleSakuraba]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

It's time to play ODDSMAKERS

I have been asked by Stoic to assume all of the following for this exercise:

- There are 3 wolves remaining
- The wolves will attack a human
- Everyone will vote to guard themselves

First, let's define our events.

A: Event that a given individual is attacked by a wolf.
B: Event that a given individual's lottery pick wins.

Let's go back to Night 2, since debating guard probability during the Day is dumb because you're going to vote someone off before it even matters. You have 14 players. Assuming 3 to be wolves, that leaves 11 humans. The wolves will kill a human, giving them 11 targets. This means the odds of any individual human getting attacked (Event A) are 1/11. Now, as for the lottery, if everyone picks themselves, then the odds of any individual player getting guarded (Event B) are 1/14.

Now, the probability of both of these things happening for one individual player, or P(A|¯|B) (please pretend that's a union symbol, I can't find it on the character map >_>), is simply (1/11)*(1/14), or 1/154, because the two events are statistically independent. However, that's not what's being asked. We're looking for the odds that a successful guard occurs. In this case, we turn to conditional probability, where we want the odds of a player getting guarded given they were attacked, or P(B|A). Since these two events are independent, by the law of independence (I think; it might've been some other law, I don't have my book handy), P(B|A) = P(B), and thus the odds of a successful guard occuring are much better (for the humans, anyway) at 1/14.

You can observe the independent nature of the two events simply by taking them for what they are. Two events A and B are independent if A's success or failure does not affect B's chances of success, and B's success or failure does not affect A's chances of success. Looking at the actions being performed, the kill choice is not going to change based on the winning lottery number (since no one, including the wolves, is told who won), and the winning lottery number is not going to change based on the kill choice (since I'm leaving it up to AIM dice rolls and AIM doesn't care who's getting killed).

(Side note: because of the nature of independence, you will note that even including the possibility that the wolves may kill one of their own does not change the odds of a successful guard from 1/14.)

Hope that clears things up.

[Wilkin]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Day 2 observations:

1) Absence. Since Thursday night, I've been away from any computer, and thus unable to actually read what happened until now. As well as that, I never got to send in a lottery pick, though an extra one in there wouldn't have been too good for Kefit anyway.

2) MW analogy. It was meant mainly as "trust a guard like you would a seer'd human." The math I threw in there was done rather quickly, and I believe pretty accurate, given the circumstances. Give or take a couple of percentages, the message still comes across.

3) Kefit. Seems like the wolves aren't as "low-risk" as some threw around on Day 1. I've completely forgot Kefit was in the game, as I believe he's only made one post (maybe two?) that I can remember. As far as picks on him go, however, it would make sense since he is regarded as one of the better players, and with no solid decision on pooling votes and whatnot yet, it doesn't surprise me if he got two or three votes to his name (14% - 21% chance of guard; not too shabby for one person).

4) Sending Cypher picks. One big problem I see with this is the chance of having one of the assignments for three or four votes going to a wolf (depending on the circumstances and the people), bringing up two situations:

a) Taking those three to four votes out of play, which, along with the wolf votes not counting, would give the humans only seven votes out of the ten remaining humans after today (assuming no wolves are lynched by tonight).

And

b) Here's a situation. Tps wasn't a wolf, and the lynchee today isn't either. We all decide to give our picks to Cypher, and he gives us all assignments for the night. Wolf X is assigned to Wolf Y, but Wolves Y or Z aren't. Thus, Wolf Y has at least two more votes on him by humans. Noticing this, Wolves Y and Z also pick Wolf Y, giving Y 5 votes (out of thirteen) for a guard. This amounts to at least 38% of the votes. Especially with Kefit's guard today (and the Vigi able to use his powers without major consequence), the wolves might be crazy enough to take that chance and wolf Y.


Those situations have a minimal chance of occurring EXACTLY like that, but it's still a noticable possibility. Of course, you'd have to factor in the fact that Afro would still vote for whoever he wanted, along with anyone else who disagrees with the idea. I, personally, would like the picks to be left to the person, as it still leaves open the one obstacle the wolves can never overcome: the unknown. There would be no patterns to find, no people (purposely) left unguarded, etc. If we had been assigned to people last night, and Kefit wasn't one of them, he'd be dead today.

I'm for keeping the unknown.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

nobody is in favor of cypher giving us who to guard... because of the stuff you listed. which is all stuff I listed right after it was suggested.

what we ARE in favor of is giving cypher OUR picks from the past. the data could prove useful, and it has zero downside. especially helpful is knowing who guarded kefit.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

ps - Fish

^.^ <3