TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

[flypie743]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Okay I checked some of Tass's non-wolf plans/1st initial thoughts about the game. The only thing I came up with is 3 out of 3 times he talks about the forming of an alliance and has an alliance plan ready to go.

TWG XXVIII Tass is human.
TWG XXI Tass is bookie.
TWG XXIV Tass is human.

As you can see all 3 mention alliances.

The first link Fish posted Tass mentions no alliance strat. The 2nd one no alliance strat. In the 3rd one he shoots down fish's alliance strat and eventually fish + tass come up with one together? not sure how that worked.

This game he does have a plan about cypher being the alliance leader as the bane and the vigi working behind in the shadows - a 2 person alliance.

Not sure if this means anything, but this is all I could really come up with in the difference between tass's plans as wolf and human. I linked these posts specifically so others could read them and possibly contribute any other differences if they find any.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

As far as alliances... I've mentioned that the only alliances that are even possible this game are what I already got set up (Cypher + vigi), and then potentially anyone who is guarded.

It is because the only way to add to the group is via a guard, I am so adament about my feelings towards revealing past guards and anything guard related. Our guard picks are THE most important thing in this game.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

PS - Those 3 games flypie mentioned... those appear to be the last 3 games I survived to day 1 and wasn't a wolf. So I'm sure there are more examples before then... *shrugs*

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I already got set up (Cypher + vigi), and then potentially anyone who is guarded.

Um

I would be REALLY hesitant to trusting anyone guarded basically at all.

Well, sure, trust them as much as you'd trust anyone in this game saying "I'm human" but don't trust them any more than that.

As it is, the wolves have a higher probability of a successful guard choice than the humans, unless the humans openly band together. And take a moment to think and you realize that openly guarding someone is a very bad idea.

So basically, I feel we should treat anyone with a successful guard as though they were anyone else. We already have two 100% humans (cypher plus mystery vigi), so why let a 75% human in the alliance, no matter how probable their humanity really is?

And yeah, the wolves probably wouldn't risk it. Unless, like I said, they're backed into a corner. And how are we supposed to know how accurate our lynchings up to that point would be without any blue help in that department? That is, after all, the only way we could have any sort of accuracy to the answer of "how close to endgame are we?" and in turn, how willing the wolves will be to take a risk such as wolfing themself.

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Wolves are Afro Shash Iggy and Blah

You'll realize if you just read their posts.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

1. only 3 wolves.

2. where is Kefit?

[Shashakiro]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Wolves are Afro Shash Iggy and Blah

You'll realize if you just read their posts.

I like your splendid use of evidence and logic that accompanies these accusations.

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I find suspects, then evidence. Not the other way around.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I find suspects, then evidence. Not the other way around.

That makes no sense at all.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Afro's an absolute idiot wow did anyone read his post. He's out there saying "Hey humans let's all try and lose" ugh I threw up in my mouth thinking how Tass tried to equate the 2 of us earlier... look at that bull that was just spewed everywhere by him.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Hey humans let's all try and lose

In related news: what the hell are you talking about? If you see a flaw in my logic, mention it specifically.

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I didn't mean to include Blah in that list.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I'll do it for blah...

Um

I would be REALLY hesitant to trusting anyone guarded basically at all.

Well, sure, trust them as much as you'd trust anyone in this game saying "I'm human" but don't trust them any more than that.

As it is, the wolves have a higher probability of a successful guard choice than the humans, unless the humans openly band together. And take a moment to think and you realize that openly guarding someone is a very bad idea.

So basically, I feel we should treat anyone with a successful guard as though they were anyone else. We already have two 100% humans (cypher plus mystery vigi), so why let a 75% human in the alliance, no matter how probable their humanity really is?

And yeah, the wolves probably wouldn't risk it. Unless, like I said, they're backed into a corner. And how are we supposed to know how accurate our lynchings up to that point would be without any blue help in that department? That is, after all, the only way we could have any sort of accuracy to the answer of "how close to endgame are we?" and in turn, how willing the wolves will be to take a risk such as wolfing themself.

As has already been said, we have no blue help in getting information. So a lot of you (Afro included) seem to be treading water and slowly drowning without this life vest. What help DO we have, you may ask? We have GUARDIAN LOTTERY.

Now... lets look at Guardian Lottery. We've already worked over the odds above, and until night 4 at the earliest, there is VERY little chance any wolf will have decent enough odds to attempt to wolf themselves, and even then, that is assuming all 3 are alive. Unless you're me, where the odds would have been good enough to do it night 1 (no other night though).

So... now Afro comes in and says "well, wolves would definately attack themselves in a losing EV proposition" for either sheer stupidity or in an attempt to throw doubt on any future person guarded. Won't work. Odds are way too heavily against the wolves to try this move. If they still really want to, be my guest. I've already stated publically that I'd be damn happy if they suppuku in this manner.

So, ok... clearly we won't trust a guarded human 100%. No reason to. But 95%? Sure. I would hope that Cypher wouldn't tell them the vigi. No reason to. Cypher has no risk of dying, so he doesn't need to tell ANYONE who the vigi is... only reason to tell someone is fear of dying, which he doesn't have, so he tells no one. 0 risk there. Guarded person has to be the least suspected in the game, bar none, excluding Cypher and the unknown vigi.

Again... your plan is to ignore the ONE piece of blue help we have this game. Excellent.

PS - I haven't done the actual statistics... but I highly doubt that the wolves have a higher percentage chance of guarding one of their own than the humans do.

[Kefit]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

2. where is Kefit?

@

With full cooperation from the humans, even with the vigilante public the wolves have a very low chance of successfully wolfing them . . . In a sense, I think this makes the lottery guarding have the same impact as standard guarding, because the success rate of the wolves is so low that it will prevent them from trying it at all... And even here, my model implies the worst-case scenario where no wolves are found out. In actuality, the chances of a successful guarding jump up to around 80% with a single wolf removed.

. . .

Assuming no cooperation between the humans and wolves smart enough not to guard their selection, the odds of a successful guarding are as follows . . . So basically, with random chance we have a 40% chance to have a successful guarding by the time the day is over.

This post set off some alarms in my head. For once, the worst case for the wolves is when the humans don't cooperate - in that case, there is a roughly 40% chance of a successful guard happening regardless of who the wolves choose. On the other hand, if the humans do cooperate and guard the vigi, then the wolves will just kill other people, with essentially no chance of a successful guarding.

I believe that this was brought up by Afrobean early on, and was promptly ignored by all the major players here in favor of TASS TASS TASS OMG LET ME TOUCH YOUR AURA posts. And I believe that this is a mistake. In the past couple of games I have played in, I've nailed wolves early on by finding plans of action that are ultimately helpful to the wolves presented by intelligent players in the guise of something helpful to the humans. This is no different, and so I gotta go for aperson

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I'll say it again: I really like Iggy's idea of sending lotto choices to Cypher, as long as Cypher is who he really is. Also, I'm TOTALLY with Afrobean, in that a wolf getting guarded definitely does not mean gameover for the humans. I remember being a wolf with TPS that game, and it definitely was an uphill battle for him.