TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

er, I meant Wolfed, not Lynched.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I thought of this, actually... and didn't post about it because of one big flaw:

Say Cypher tells 3 or 4 people to guard a wolf, which is pretty likely, given he would pick 3 people. Then you throw in 2 or 3 more wolf votes, and now we have anywhere from 5 to 7 on a wolf, and it becomes tempting for the wolves to try and kill that person. Plus, if they are guarded... we all figure it's normal. And if they die... it's a loss, but recoverable, as has been said about my comments earlier.

I'm for giving Cypher our picks to use as a way of seeing trends and patterns. Zero risk there. I am NOT in favor of Cypher going back and giving us any suggestions based on this information. That would be bad.

[aperson]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Just talked to blah about it right as he posted it... I like the idea too. As an additional note, it also chains the wolves down against wolfing those people even if they were told to guard them: If, say, two wolves happened to get one of the people on the list and they wolfed them, Cypher would then have a pretty small and nice pool to select very probably wolves from.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

*Suggestions on future guards.

Suggestions on who may or may not be a wolf based on their guard choices is perfectly acceptable.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

tass, cypher's choosing who the top 3 are and we don't know... you yourself has said that its not worth it for a wolf to kill himself if he only has a 30 % chance of survival.. i'm totally fine with that.. plus, if there's a guard in this situatino it almost screams wolf, since this situation should ELIMINATE successful guards... they'd be highly skeptical at best... so your flaw doesn't exist

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

So even if your plan goes off completely as planned... it would really only work days 2 or 3. By night 4, there aren't enough people to have it work properly and/or chances of guarding a wolf are much higher.

AND... you'd pretty much be guarenteeing that we WOULDN'T get a guard. Which is dumb. We WANT guards. I'd rather keep the shot of a guard alive than keeping 2-3 people as safe from attacks. Keeping them safe doesn't mean the wolves won't just kill someone else.

No kill + guard > Kill of a weak player

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

iggy is being replaced by Stoic because he can't commit to the rest of the game.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

during nights 2 and 3 the chance of a guard is wicked low.. i'd rather keep all oru strongest palyers until day 4... like you said yourself, look at the win % when yo ureach day 4... let's eschew goign for guards when its really unlikely... this is a perfect short term strat

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Tasselfoot, SOMEONE is going to die. This plan makes it unlikely that someone seen to the majority as important is the one to die.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Omega, please stop using my full username. Tass if fine.

And the goal is that someone DOESN'T die. Odds may not be THAT high, but I'd rather some odds than no odds.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Guys, this is kinda stupid, in my opinion.

If the guards are split between a few top players, I'd say the wolves would still go for it anyway

Why? I'll explain my thought line here.

Ok, so a wolf won't wolf himself because the odds of success are so low, right? Well in this instance, the odds of failure are equally low. Why even worry about guards being split like that, especially when the wolves can't even know for sure WHO EXACTLY the votes are split between.

I'd say our best bet is really to stick to individual votes for who we think may be wolfed and simply hope that they succeed. Realistically, the votes are going to be split in a way which is almost 100% representative of who the humans don't want wolfed anyway. It's not like each human is voting for someone and every player has 1 vote for guarding on them. There will be many players with no votes and a few with many votes. And all of this is achieved naturally without any direction from an external source.

In short: I think that someone, even a 100% human, telling me WHO to guard is retarded. Hell, if cypher goes along with it, I'll tell you right now I'll still vote to guard the person I want to guard and not whatever he says.

EDIT: had a question mark in an awkard place.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

You said similar things to what I said Afro...

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Afro and Tass are agreeing... we gotta lynch them both... and they're both idiots

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

You said similar things to what I said Afro...

what's your point?

Afro and Tass are agreeing... we gotta lynch them both... and they're both idiots

blah wasn't I agreeing with you early in the day? BETTER LYNCH YOU TOO

Oh and I bet I've aggreed with pretty much everyone at some point (sans Kefit, I guess... he posted like once total and I don't even remember what it was) SO LET'S LYNCH EVERYONE

ps ap lol

pps when does day end?

[aperson]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I'm going to have to go with blah right now.

There's just something funny about the way you've been acting. Really, your motives this whole game have been quite strange. Your hardon for self-preservation through the 'top 3 guard' strategy coupled with your really instigatory posts against Tasselfoot just don't add up to me. It seems like you have something behind the curtains that you aren't telling us a bout.