TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

If DBP is town, botchi is likely to be wolf while Zenith is likely to be town.
If Shado is town, Zenith is likely to be wolf.

Not sure how much I trust Sunfan/bugkid votes 'cause it's following Shado's narrative and I know Shado is good tone read wise as a wolf as well.
Shado/botchi seems logical as W/W.

Shado/Zenith W/W is never happening imo 'cause of the kitb last EoD.

If DBP wolf then DBP/Zenith/Xel is a thing and vice versa.
If Shado wolf then Shado/botchi/?

who do you want flipped this phase, this post makes it seem like you want something outside of what sunfan wants (zenith kill)

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

sunfan the more I think about it the less I want a zenith lynch here

I think DBP is the right move

what do you think of the post i made?

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

sunfan the more I think about it the less I want a zenith lynch here

I think DBP is the right move

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

back thru EoD

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

If DBP is town, botchi is likely to be wolf while Zenith is likely to be town.
If Shado is town, Zenith is likely to be wolf.

Not sure how much I trust Sunfan/bugkid votes 'cause it's following Shado's narrative and I know Shado is good tone read wise as a wolf as well.
Shado/botchi seems logical as W/W.

Shado/Zenith W/W is never happening imo 'cause of the kitb last EoD.

If DBP wolf then DBP/Zenith/Xel is a thing and vice versa.
If Shado wolf then Shado/botchi/?

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

45 mins to EOD and the thread is POPPIN

Someone talk to me in real time

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

lmao i was not disappointed with the use of bold letters and size maxed font

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

Now time to read sunfans spoiler post and find out why everyone seems resigned to zenith

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

Im finally on a computer

I was originally going to do a Zapruder film style deep dive on DBPs eod but after reading everything I dont think its warranted (Plus i dont think I'm capable of it). Most of his on d0 posts bang on the same drum. This was the start of his push on Ben

1) "I am announcing my distaste of Star's post because I'm not convinced by their reasoning."
2) "However, if I'm wrong, they will be helpful for town."
3) "Even if I tried voting for them, nobody else would."

This is textbook distancing. "If Star flips red later, I want plausible deniability. But I actually don't want them dead. I want to have my cake and eat it too."

My perspective is: why do you think there is basically zero traction on getting them voted out now? Is this a reason for you to just give up the lead, because you don't think anyone will follow you? Isn't your job to try to convince people that you're correct? And to MAKE traction?

And then you follow up with a vote on bugkid, someone not here? It feels like just placing a vote down just to have a vote down

Obviously with the benefit of hindsight Ben was just being careful here, possibly feeling overwhelmed. But hindsight isnt important, what's important is if DBP is consistent. Lets move on

why does your read on someone depend on the opinion of a third party?

this one in particular is very smelly

DBP continues to dig through Ben's posts, this was one of the few posts he made against Ben that diverged from his usual attack pattern against him, and reads like a genuine find done after some digging.

"I think star might be a wolf, but I'm voting for bugkid instead." <---- If a CFD happens on a bug wagon, then Ben can always "safely" vote star instead.

"If bug is town, then H&H is a wolf." <---- If bug is town and flips this phase, Ben has a "safe" vote for tomorrow.

This is clear as day to me. IDK why no one else is noticing these things

This is the second time DBP has hammered this point, at this point I notice and respond to him that logical patterns are very rarely this clear cut, and this is his response.

100% people with anxiety about lying will do this thing where they don't want to be pinned down to a specific narrative in cause they get caught lying later. it's a subconscious thing.

I'm not saying this is an engineered strategy. It is literally a reaction to mental and emotional stress.

I accepted it at the time because he seemed locked in on this narrative, but 8 minutes previously when Mello called Ben a paranoid town DBP said this.

I know what paranoia looks like. This isn't that, it's strategic maneuvering, IMO

The first clear contradiction I've seen. Referring to the same anxiety/paranoia that Ben had, he calls it two completely different things. In one post he says its emotional and not an engineered strategy, in the other he says its engineered and manipulative. His narrative at this point isnt consistent.

Thats pretty much all thats interesting about DBP eod.

So what did I learn?

I learned I suck at ISOs (5 posts is kinda pathetic). Also specifically I suck at drawing conclusions from them, probably due to a lack of experience with the process. Sure DBP made a clear contradiction in his case against Ben but does that make him wolfy or just misguided town? I think all I can do is post this info and let it marinate and hope to be inspired by other peoples takes on it.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

The Votecount
_Zenith_ (2) - the sun fan, bugkid666
botchi246 (1) - DaBackpack

Not voting - Hakulyte, ShadoWolfe, _Zenith_, XelNya, botchi246, FreezinIce

[XelNya]

Re: TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

I have to say, the site constantly dying and going down is making this process VERY annoying

this has been very annoying more than once

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

I have to say, the site constantly dying and going down is making this process VERY annoying

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

This EoD really seems to be going toward a Zenith lynch and I'm not even sure if Zenith will come back to do anything. Feels like a lot like the H&H EoD.

Considering the next phase is likely to be lylo, is it really the best option ?

If he flips town, I feel like the game is likely to be too hard to recover.

I feel like I'd rather go elsewhere and hope he gets replaced or something 'cause this could change the momentum of the game.

I feel like he got frustrated with what happened around his game and left. I can't guarantee it was for the right reasons.
Maybe it's just a me thing, but that's a really weird ''match plan'' if you read Zenith as a wolf here.

Messing up about PRs in a game with no PRs should have been a ''haha what are you doing'' moment rather than an unacceptable mistake.

in b4 ''no Haku, he can do that as wolf too''. I hear ya, but damn.

I feel like I'd gain so much more from voting out someone that might be an active wolf. I guess having a Zenith slot in lylo sounds bad as well. :/

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

Woke up a little later than I wanted, but oh well

I didn't read sunfans spoiler because I still wanted to do my own thing, but using the power of cOnTeXt ClUeS I can guess what it said based on the discussion around it. I'm still gonna do my analysis of DBP eod d0 that I should've done last phase. I'll see how I feel after that

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

I didn't get done with the DBP analysis in time to post yet, and I gotta run for a couple hours to do some errands before it's too late. I'll be back before EoD and should have enough time to finish my thoughts

so far everything I've felt in re-reading makes me think it really is just DBP/Zenith. I think the third is unlikely to be botchi after all, and is much more likely to be either Xel or Freezin. Would probably lynch xel before freezin

sunfan if you can shit on my "not mechanically forced" post and tell me why Zenith is in fact mechanically forced, I'd appreciate it.