TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

Just checked. No players list. So yeah:

Kilgamayan
Necamus
FishFishRevolution
Chardish
iggymatrixcounter
Tps222
ddrdanc3r55
xObserveRx
MiniNeo
Afrobean
nforcer06164
Tokzic
JurseyRider734


Kilgamayan- I honestly can't think of anything he's said or done.

Necamus- Really, my best guess would be that you're a wolf simply because of how inactive you are. Playing it like me as a wolf: post when you need to, but otherwise not bothering.

FishFishRevolution- Is he playing? Oh right. He was gone all before. Completely uncharacteristic of him, regardless of role.

Chardish- Got bad vibes from him. His post voting for nforcer really bothered me.

iggymatrixcounter- Also getting bad vibes from him. His posts best sum up as "blues do what I say or you're guarantee'd to lose." That just rubs me the wrong way. Top it all off with his "if a wolf sees a green, then they're safe" idea and you have ****ed-up-ness all around.

Tps222- see FishFishRevolution

ddrdanc3r55- Was nearly lynched day 1 for no reason that I noticed. Not likely a wolf because of this. Not counting him out completely though.

xObserveRx- Has he even posted at all? Maybe I missed it.

MiniNeo- ??? post more and get an avatar.

Afrobean- wolf. I seer'd him and it came back wolf.

nforcer06164- human. His attack on blah would be retarded as a wolf. Then again, see last game where nforcer did lots of **** that would be retarded as wolf.

Tokzic- Wolf. Total gut. Not that I could actually base it on much if I wanted to.

JurseyRider734- Wolf. I dunno. haha.

So, in short, the wolves are: Necamus, Chardish, iggy, tokzic and jurs.

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

Am I the only one that read this as "listen, I won't wolf someone when the shamen report says they're green"?

Well, I suppose he is saying that if he was a wolf, that's what he would do, but I think he said something about that yesterday, too. He does seem to be pushing that idea quite a bit. I don't really know what he means by "we have a lot of newer players and many who I think are too dumb to figure it out", either. It initially struck me as, "Oh, newbie wolves are too dumb to figure out what I'm thinking, so I just won't say it." I don't know. Just getting it out there.

iggy, there's no way to know what the wolves would do. They might kill a green, if they saw that person as a threat. I know human blah is someone to be feared by a wolf. Chardish is too. So is Tass. Even in this game, it might be better for a wolf off a very good human rather than stab for a blue in the dark, if he (or she, for Jurs) has the potential of putting the wolves in a dangerous position. Without a guardian, the wolves are free to kill whomever they want. Speculation on a kill with regards to role is pointless, really, because without knowledge of who the wolves are (a fundamental point), there is no way to know what they are thinking in such respect when making a kill. We can guess as to why a person was killed based on behavior or other things, but throwing role in there will only complicate things.

Now, on that note, I know I said this about blah before, but I'll say it again. He was acting fairly odd, different from usual. I don't see blah as a person who is immediately inspired to pull a TPS as a green (don't take it personally, TPS), and because he obviously wasn't a wolf, he was most likely a blue. I doubt he would attempt to garner that much attention as a seer, so he was probably a mason. I'd like to see if anybody has any counterpoints, because I don't know what else we can discuss at this moment, until more people see the thread and throw some ideas out.

Fish, the posts do appear similar, but there are two main differences that I can see: a lack of emoticon (present in 18, absent here), and a substantion of the "I was afraid of that" statement (present here, absent in 18). Some people think the emoticon can't mean too much, but when you come down to textual analysis in these games, it can be huge. The statement Kilga made in 18 without much of an explanation seems weird, but he did explain his statement fairly well here. If blah appeared that strongly as a mason to him, I don't blame him for having a feeling that the wolves might notice it, too.

I'd like to see some of our newer players post, specifically Observer and randumb. I'm hopeful that the fresh blood we've got going here might be able to throw in an "out there" idea that might be worth looking at.

Oh, and speaking of wanting people to post... Minineo. Get out here. That's right, I mentioned you. Post.

Minor edits to correct possible pronoun confusion.

[JurseyRider734]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

I have a feeling Tps may be a wolf. When the game had just started he asked me my role, and I told him I was human...well...because I am. Anyway, he said he kind of believed me and also posted in this thread that I sounded believable. I have a feeling he could be a wolf and may have done this to make him seem like a human-ally-buddy for me, but really isn't. Just a notion, just thought i'd put it on the table.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

I would just like to say that I think the fact that Kilga's emoticons entering the debate for reasons for/against his humanity for the third game is absolutely hilarious.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

nforcer has just been switched from being human in my eyes to wolf.

His openly saying that he believes at least one blue to be dead (especially when the person dead is more easily green than blue statistically speaking) is counterproductive, and he did the same thing last game where he was a wolf.

In fact, I'm going to vote nforcer.

[User6773]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

Why the hell did FFR go down yesterday? FFR was being stupid as sin but that's no reason to vote to lynch him especially when there's so much more beef on nforcer and randumb (the other two people who were in threat of being wolfed.)

And then - moments before the deadline - people spring into action...

My strong suspicion is that the wolves are Afro, DDR (randumb), nforcer, and Kilga.

FFR had 1 vote on him (from Mini). with 90 minutes left to go until the deadline. At this point, the only people who have votes on them are:

Current votes:
ddr: 2 (Jurs, iggy)
fish: 1 (Kilga)
blah: 1 (FFR)
MiniNeo: 1 (nforcer)
FFR: 1 (MiniNeo)
nforcer: 2 (blah, chardish)
chardish: 1 (Afro)

Assume for a moment that I'm correct and that Afro/DDR/Kilga/Nforcer are the wolves. So at this moment in time the 2 top people for the lynch are both wolves, and the runners-up are Fish, Blah, Mini, FFR, and myself.
Mini and Fish have been so inactive that hopping on them would look suspicious, I'm widely perceived as a threat so hopping on me would look suspicious, and throwing 3 votes on someone not on that list at the 11th hour would look absurdly suspicious. Therefore, the wolves' only real option is to vote FFR.

So, we're at T minus 90 minutes.
Afro votes FFR.
With 20 minutes to go, DDR suddenly becomes active and jumps on Necamus. Avoiding a phantom is certainly the right thing to do, but an inactivity vote is really the weak way out at this point. 20 minutes gives you enough time to skim and guess, randumb.
With 15 minutes to go, Kilga hops on FFR (who has 2 votes already). And FFR is gone.

My biggest suspicion is Kilga. Fish, you were dead on and I'm glad I'm not the only one who noticed that odd post of his. "Damn, I'm really upset that X got the axe" is a huge wolf tell, especially during the early game when (franly) nothing's really happened yet. Also, I noted yesterday that he seemed more active than usual - in previous games he usually lays low until he has something important to say. In that respect his playstyle is kind of similar to Kefit's. But this go-around he's been talking a lot and not really adding much of importance.

As for his vote on FFR, what kind of logic is "might **** stuff up down the road?" It sounds like he chose who he wanted to vote for and then justified it, instead of considering the evidence and picking the most likely wolf candidate. Kilga has been around long enough to know that stupidity by new players isn't a sign of wolfhood - and in fact, it's usually a sign of humanity, because they don't have experienced wolf buddies to train them how to speak. Poor, poor logic.

I think then it follows that DDR and Nforcer are definitely both wolves, as the only good reason not to bandwagon one of those if you're a wolf is if you're trying to simultaneously cover both of their asses. There was fairly good reason to lynch either of them, and Kilga seemed to ignore it, throwing a random shoutout to nforcer nonetheless.

But wait, here's the biggest tell of all. Iggy sent me this conversation earlier.

bjstrattonIM (11:09:49 PM): It's not like this alleviates any suspicion from nforcer anyway
bjstrattonIM (11:09:55 PM): Or randumb, for that matter
bjstrattonIM (11:10:06 PM): I wouldn't be surprised if either or both just ended up getting voted off later

If that's the case, Kilga, then why the vote on FFR4EVA?

Afro's not exactly clean either.

My initial vote on Chardish was half joking, half bitterness, half get people talking. I intend no bad blood between us. However you really are near the top of my list (after your vote on nforcer), it's just that I'm sure you won't go down today, and honestly, I really don't want this FFR4etc. person alive anymore.

Why are you and Kilga both so protective of Nforcer? And why the feelings that an crummy human should go in place of a potential wolf?

nforcer has just been switched from being human in my eyes to wolf.

His openly saying that he believes at least one blue to be dead (especially when the person dead is more easily green than blue statistically speaking) is counterproductive, and he did the same thing last game where he was a wolf.

In fact, I'm going to vote nforcer.

3 people are dead. I'm fairly sure FFR was human, and that makes me fairly sure we haven't gotten a wolf yet. 3/12 = 25% chance a blue is already dead, and that's compounded by the fact that there's a 40% chance (roughly) that they've seen a blue at this point.

This really looks like a dissociation vote to me. Also you gave up the dumbass routine really quickly after it became obvious it wasn't working.

So yeah. It's Kilga, Afro, DDR, and Nforcer. I've typed enough for one night I think. Let's get down to brasstacks. You four need to go, and we need to start somewhere.

Kilgamayan.

[User6773]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

Actually, scratch that last vote. You want to play chicken, Afro? Let's see how long that vote of yours on your wolf buddy stands. nforcer.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

Actually, scratch that last vote. You want to play chicken, Afro? Let's see how long that vote of yours on your wolf buddy stands. nforcer.

ok.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

So, we're at T minus 90 minutes.
Afro votes FFR.
With 20 minutes to go, DDR suddenly becomes active and jumps on Necamus. Avoiding a phantom is certainly the right thing to do, but an inactivity vote is really the weak way out at this point. 20 minutes gives you enough time to skim and guess, randumb.
With 15 minutes to go, Kilga hops on FFR (who has 2 votes already). And FFR is gone.

Might explain ddr's reason for voting necamus:

Iggy911Mc (10:43:50 PM): make sure you vote in the next 15 minutes
randumb lol (10:44:02 PM): For who?
randumb lol (10:44:09 PM): I was out all day.
randumb lol (10:44:21 PM): I'll say you told me to vote for "x" person
randumb lol (10:44:26 PM): I'm kind of pissed right now
Iggy911Mc (10:44:40 PM): lol well its too close for me to tell you to vote for someone
randumb lol (10:44:44 PM): Who doesn't have a vote?
Iggy911Mc (10:44:55 PM): necamus
Iggy911Mc (10:49:56 PM): btw you may want to vote ffr or nforcer because its a three way tie between you three
Iggy911Mc (10:50:08 PM): if you dont want to die that is
randumb lol (10:50:40 PM): I have a vote?
Iggy911Mc (10:50:50 PM): you have 2 votes
Iggy911Mc (10:50:58 PM): heres the voting guide...
Iggy911Mc (10:51:05 PM):
ddr: 2 (Jurs, iggy)
fish: 1 (Kilga)
blah: 1 (FFR)
MiniNeo: 1 (nforcer)
FFR: 2 (MiniNeo, afro)
nforcer: 2 (blah, chardish)
chardish: 1 (observer)
observer 1 (fish)
necamus 1 (ddr)
necamus, tps, tokzic,
randumb lol (10:51:44 PM): wow
randumb lol (10:51:50 PM): That's like split by a lot
[[[[Kilga votes FFR]]]]
Iggy911Mc (10:52:01 PM): o noes, ffr took the lead
Iggy911Mc (10:54:32 PM): looks like you dodged a bullet lol
randumb lol (10:54:44 PM): Yeah
Iggy911Mc (10:54:57 PM): still 6 minutes though maybe someone will be funny

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

Assume for a moment that I'm correct and that Afro/DDR/Kilga/Nforcer are the wolves. So at this moment in time the 2 top people for the lynch are both wolves, and the runners-up are Fish, Blah, Mini, FFR, and myself. Mini and Fish have been so inactive that hopping on them would look suspicious, I'm widely perceived as a threat so hopping on me would look suspicious, and throwing 3 votes on someone not on that list at the 11th hour would look absurdly suspicious. Therefore, the wolves' only real option is to vote FFR.

I like how you try to pigeonhole a bunch of people into being wolves. "Performing Actions A, B and C are suspicious, so by performing Action D, these people are suspicious." Are you just out to get us or what?

My biggest suspicion is Kilga. Fish, you were dead on and I'm glad I'm not the only one who noticed that odd post of his. "Damn, I'm really upset that X got the axe" is a huge wolf tell, especially during the early game when (franly) nothing's really happened yet. Also, I noted yesterday that he seemed more active than usual - in previous games he usually lays low until he has something important to say. In that respect his playstyle is kind of similar to Kefit's. But this go-around he's been talking a lot and not really adding much of importance.

Then next time I'm disappointed that a good player whom I think is blue is dead I'll make sure to keep it to myself.

If I have been "more active" (if 6 posts in 5 pages is overly active for me then maybe I need to reassess where my TWG "lifestyle" is headed), I attribute it to summertime. Unlike the 8 months a year I spend in Springfield, I don't have any classwork to worry about these days. I'm on the computer or watching TV or whatever about 14 hours a day. More free time = more time to put toward TWG.

As for his vote on FFR, what kind of logic is "might **** stuff up down the road?" It sounds like he chose who he wanted to vote for and then justified it, instead of considering the evidence and picking the most likely wolf candidate. Kilga has been around long enough to know that stupidity by new players isn't a sign of wolfhood - and in fact, it's usually a sign of humanity, because they don't have experienced wolf buddies to train them how to speak. Poor, poor logic.

I noticed that iggy sent you our conversation from last night. I guess he didn't send you the whole thing, because otherwise you wouldn't have just picked the part you did and ignored the rest.

Iggy911Mc: so why did you save nforcer and ddr from uncertain death?
bjstrattonIM: Because I think nforcer is human, as I said.
Iggy911Mc: i know you posted reasons, but there really isnt anything concrete to swing it any way
bjstrattonIM: Well, let's take ddr first.
bjstrattonIM: Actually, I'll go back to the thread and do nforcer first.
bjstrattonIM: It was mostly stuff he said in the thread.
Iggy911Mc: yea but even though nforcer sounds human, doesnt really make him human
bjstrattonIM: This is true
bjstrattonIM: But that applies to everyone.
Iggy911Mc: so why choose ffr when there really isnt anything to swing it either way
bjstrattonIM: Well, in comparing ffr to randumb
bjstrattonIM: If one were a wolf and one were human, then obviously I'd want to choose the one that was a wolf.
bjstrattonIM: However, if they're both human, then I'd rather see FFR dead, because he (she?) seems more likely to **** up the human cause down the road.
Iggy911Mc: ok i can go with that reasoning i guess
Iggy911Mc: its not ideal but i can see, over anything else, wanting a dumb new player gone even if you didnt know what role he had
bjstrattonIM: Right
bjstrattonIM: It's a really basic risk assesment
bjstrattonIM: If they're both wolves, then who I chose wouldn't matter
bjstrattonIM: And in the other three scenarios, I would want FFR dead in two of them
bjstrattonIM: In nforcer's case, he's been proactive and helpful
bjstrattonIM: So he's in higher human standing to me than FFR
bjstrattonIM: Especially with some of that weird vote switching
Iggy911Mc: meh i would have given ffr the benefit of the doubt because hes very new and does the same thing in jtwg ive heard
Iggy911Mc: i guess imo i see nforcer as useful, but in the end i cant really defend him because a wolf would look human and useful also
bjstrattonIM: It could've gone either way, I guess
bjstrattonIM: It's not like this alleviates any suspicion from nforcer anyway
bjstrattonIM: Or randumb, for that matter
bjstrattonIM: I wouldn't be surprised if either or both just ended up getting voted off later
Iggy911Mc: well lol, imo i dont think any of those three were wolves
bjstrattonIM: I just went with the person whose death I thought would most benefit the humans
Iggy911Mc: i just voted ddr because he refused to be active
Iggy911Mc: then jurs bandwagoned and then we had him in the top

My position was that voting FFR over randumb (and voting FFR over nforcer, since the same logic applies) had a 67% chance of being the most beneficial choice for the humans. How is that "poor logic"?

I think then it follows that DDR and Nforcer are definitely both wolves, as the only good reason not to bandwagon one of those if you're a wolf is if you're trying to simultaneously cover both of their asses. There was fairly good reason to lynch either of them, and Kilga seemed to ignore it, throwing a random shoutout to nforcer nonetheless.

Fairly good reasons? iggy admitted that his vote for randumb was out of spite and Jurs' vote was an equally spiteful bandwagon. How is either of that a good reason? And how is nforcer's treatment of iggy's plan a good reason to vote for him? What makes iggy any different for coming up with it? (I actually have something extra to say about this later.)

But wait, here's the biggest tell of all. Iggy sent me this conversation earlier.

bjstrattonIM (11:09:49 PM): It's not like this alleviates any suspicion from nforcer anyway
bjstrattonIM (11:09:55 PM): Or randumb, for that matter
bjstrattonIM (11:10:06 PM): I wouldn't be surprised if either or both just ended up getting voted off later

If that's the case, Kilga, then why the vote on FFR4EVA?

Explained above, although this question is rather silly. Assuming the deaths of nforcer and randumb to be imminent, I could either expedite the process or vote off someone I would rather see dead while I still can (note my early exit last game).

Now, as for the flag I placed earlier, your gung-ho reasoning for getting rid of nforcer boggles the mind. You claim that your grudge against ap was responsible for his death because someone was trying to frame you when nothing of the sort had even been brought up yet (blah's vote and Afro's vote were just stupid stuff). Why defend against a nonexistant attack? You then place the blame on nforcer, citing that he supported a plan with risk and said ap wasn't a surprise. Again, what makes nforcer's support for the plan any different from iggy coming up with it? And while we're on the subject, what makes nforcer saying ap wasn't a surprise any different from Tps saying it wasn't a surprise?

Last, I don't understand what your deal is with iggy's plan at all. You claim to not like alliances because you prefer simple deduction through post analysis. Well, sure, I prefer that method too (and have been fairly open about it), but if a better method towards winning the game presents itself I'd be willing to go with it. It would be stupid to sacrifice a better chance of winning simply because of medium preference.

Lots of people here work well with alliances. I know you've seen games here with no alliances and how badly the humans get throttled in them. Sure, iggy's plan has its risks, but it has its rewards too, and as such it's better than sitting around with our thumbs up our asses when maybe 3 of us can actually deduce based on post content. On one side we are almost guaranteed a loss, but on the other we have a better shot of winning, where the punishment for failure is no more severe than a normal loss. With better odds on the latter side, why would you want to go the route of the former?

I've seen enough. I'm tired of your vendettas, I'm tired of your being selective with information, and I'm tired of your closed-mindedness toward plans with risks.

chardish

[MiniNeo]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

Oh my god nforcer mentioned me post post post gogogogogo

Em, since no one else has pointed this out, ap and blah both have something against chardish, frame / REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY ROFL?

[ddrdanc3r55]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

I like how Chardish is jumping on people that barely even post. Inavtivity doesn't always equal wolfiness, even though a lot of the times it does. Anyways, I'm going to catch up right now.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

I like how Chardish is jumping on people that barely even post. Inavtivity doesn't always equal wolfiness, even though a lot of the times it does. Anyways, I'm going to catch up right now.

I like how his vote is on nforcer, the top active person in the thread.

I like how he's also mentioned kilga and afro, two people who have been fairly active this whole game.

I also like how he hasn't mentioned tokzic, observer, necamus, mini... you know the REAL people that are inactive.

Don't make false statements ddr.

Also:

Last, I don't understand what your deal is with iggy's plan at all. You claim to not like alliances because you prefer simple deduction through post analysis. Well, sure, I prefer that method too (and have been fairly open about it), but if a better method towards winning the game presents itself I'd be willing to go with it. It would be stupid to sacrifice a better chance of winning simply because of medium preference.

Lots of people here work well with alliances. I know you've seen games here with no alliances and how badly the humans get throttled in them. Sure, iggy's plan has its risks, but it has its rewards too, and as such it's better than sitting around with our thumbs up our asses when maybe 3 of us can actually deduce based on post content. On one side we are almost guaranteed a loss, but on the other we have a better shot of winning, where the punishment for failure is no more severe than a normal loss. With better odds on the latter side, why would you want to go the route of the former?

Geez I wish I had this support yesterday when it actually was a valuable plan XD. I don't rememeber you publically saying that you thought my plan would work though. I know you may have said it was ok in a AIM convo but other than that, I don't think you said anything about it. But since I'm lazy and don't want to check I'll just assume that you said it lol.

I'd also like to take the time to say that even though I take risks in twg, most players do not. (I mean maybe fish, tps, or tass but I don't know of any other risky players) So when I get a full backing of ANYTHING that I want to do that requires risk, I tend to think that they are a wolf.

It's been fairly hard for me to find people that look suspicious since the tendency for me is to suspect the most active players. I'm still looking at a couple things but I'm not sure what I'll be doing for the rest of the day... kilga

Sorry man, you've been super cool this whole game, talked with me over AIM quite a bit, and been very helpful and active this game... but I can't get over your vote change to FFR yesterday. I'll give you that it's summer and therefore can post more, and I'll even give you your comment about blah's death. But that vote change, despite your logic, wasn't what a human would do because a human wouldn't put himself on the line for some other person. Especially if he didn't know who they were. The only way I see a human changing his vote before day ends would be to save himself, not someone else.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

Sorry man, you've been super cool this whole game, talked with me over AIM quite a bit, and been very helpful and active this game... but I can't get over your vote change to FFR yesterday. I'll give you that it's summer and therefore can post more, and I'll even give you your comment about blah's death. But that vote change, despite your logic, wasn't what a human would do because a human wouldn't put himself on the line for some other person. Especially if he didn't know who they were. The only way I see a human changing his vote before day ends would be to save himself, not someone else.

Was kilga on the chopping block?

Because I thought it was nforcer, randumb, and FFR.

And at end of day, it makes TOTAL sense for someone who has a vote to swing the tie to whoever they would prefer, regardless of what their role is. In fact, I was about to do just this, but Kilga voted FFR and put him into the lead.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

And at end of day, it makes TOTAL sense for someone who has a vote to swing the tie to whoever they would prefer, regardless of what their role is. In fact, I was about to do just this, but Kilga voted FFR and put him into the lead.

Why? not only do you not know who is the wolf or human, but it looks suspicious for a player to save one person over another just because they "prefer" the other. There has to be a reason over just "I'd rather see X die just because I don't like him."

And if you wanted to change your vote why didn't you? You posted before kilga, why not just make the vote change instead of waiting for someone else to do it for you?

Besides, either last game or the game before you wouldn't even chage your vote to save yourself, so I want to know how you figure that it makes sense to save another player, but not yourself, from a lynch.