TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

Well, we do have quite a few jTWG regs in this game, so with 4 wolves, 1 of them is probably going to be a wolf. Try not to think who would kill Aperson, but instead analyze the people react to the kill itself(I realize this is obvious, but we do have quite a few new people here who may not think this).

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

you fools... Chardish is there laughing manically over his wonderful kill... bring him to justice!

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

AIM: nforcer06164

It's too obvious for ANYONE to kill aperson, really. I believe he was probably the most intelligent person in this game. And, anybody that's played with him before (I'm assuming most of the vets here) would know he's a perfect Night 1 kill, especially with no guardian. So, who would kill aperson? Anybody. Maybe blah has something more than I'm getting, but Chardish really isn't the only person that would intentionally kill aperson.

So, where to go from here? Because aperson was a likely choice in my mind, there's not too much to be gained from the kill, other than first reactions as TPS said. The best we can do at this point is sit back, wait for first posts, and go from there.

I would like blah to explain his immediate vote for Chardish, though. Hopping on so fast doesn't sit well with me, and if his sole reason is the constant tension Chardish has with aperson, he must've had a recent concussion....

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

I don't like your "wait for posts" idea. Terrible accusations and votes should be encouraged.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

People post when there is something to talk about. We need to find a strategy and discuss it. That's what usually separates humans and wolves because they will react certain ways. Don't do the, "I'll wait for others to post before I decide anything." because there is currently nothing major to talk about.

Here's what I was thinking so far. If a mason publically revealed himself, the seer could contact this person and get the names of the other two masons. Yes this would be suicide for the public mason, but the seer would have a smaller pool of people to pick from. The wolves are going to get blues fairly quickly since they wolf one person and seer another, so they will learn almost everyone's role by day 5. If some early strategy isn't developed soon, then the wolves stand a good chance of wiping out all the blues.

Now I know you guys are like, "Wolf fakes it and seer dies." "and wolf fakes seer and masons die." These are obvious. But I play twg with risks and I think it makes it more interesting and fun, and the rewards are huge. If the masons and seer knew each other plus the night 1 seer pick. That would be 5 people together... day1.... that's huge. Especially since you know the blues would drop fast so you have to know who to seer, who to target and all that jazz.

I say it's a start for some type of strategy. DO NOT DO IT YET!!!!! I don't want a jtwg mason to go with this yet and ruin discussion. If it would happen though, the mason would reveal himself and the seer would either go to him or the night 1 pick would go and get the other two mason names, and there would be 4 people (the public mason would die obviously) together and the seer would have a smaller player pool and be able to find wolves.

So got anything to add? Pros cons? Thoughts? Another strategy?

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

Ummm... my thoughts are summed up in one statement: that won't work.

We have four wolves this game. Any wolf could come out and fake mason. Any wolf could fake seer. We'd have real problems. Remember that we're usually 16 players, 3 wolves. With one extra wolf (and one that has special powers), one of them is "disposable", in a sense, with plenty of room to win the game. Remember that if the wolf shaman finds the seer, the seer is dead the next day, and the wolves could come out with safety in the fact that there's no real seer to expose a fake seer.

Another thing, as I mentioned before (and I think it's possible that this will happen), but we'll have confused masons when two seers pop up. Once that happens, we have a real problem, because to figure out what's what, some roles are going to have to be revealed. Most importantly, though, to be safe, we'll likely lose our seer. And that's a big disadvantage, rather than some sort of advantage, in my mind.

I kinda typed this in a rush, so I might've missed something. I'd like to see more input myself, but that's mostly what I can see at the moment.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

First off the wolves wouldn't know for sure if they got the seer if they got a blue reading back on a player because masons also come back blue.

But how about this adjustment: Night 1 seer pick comes out instead of the mason. The seer would know who this is and therefore lowers the chances a wolf would want to try and fake it. And then 1 mason goes to that person with the names of his buddies. A wolf would have to get three of his friends in order to fake the mason names. (If a wolf faked and gave the names of himself and two humans, then it would easily be verified that the wolf was faking and he would die.)

So basically in this plan, you only have to worry about night pick being MW. (Even then you could find him out to be a wolf if he didn't comply and kill him off.)

And if the night one pick isn't a wolf, then worse case: the seer for three wolves... pretty much better than what the plan is supposed to accomplish.

Sound better?

[FFR4EVA_00]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

That's a pretty good strategy. I actually did take a risk in jTWG XX, and it payed off. As you said, the masons shouldn't do it yet. If they did, it would be a lot more risky.

[FFR4EVA_00]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

Oh wait, I didn't see the revision.

That's better. It certainly lowers the risk of a mason getting killed off because of the plan. And yes, the master wolf would have a slight chance of messing up the alliance, but TWG sometimes involves taking risks, and, as iggy said, makes it a lot more interesting.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

my aim is afrobean16

dont expect me to be on it much

not like I'd get a lot of IMs from you guys anyway

ps i heard chardish saying that he was a wolf

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

And yes, the master wolf would have a slight chance of messing up the alliance, but TWG sometimes involves taking risks, and, as iggy said, makes it a lot more interesting.

Even if the MW did try to "mess up" the plan, he would at least be caught.

I'm not really saying that an alliance should be "set-up." I mean, I guess it could be, but all I want to see is the seer find the masons so he can make better guesses at who to seer.

Like I said, the blues have the potential to ALL be wiped out by day 4. (4 wolfings + 4 lynches + 4 wolf seering + 4 wolves = 16 players.) There may even be one lost tonight, it's possible. IMO, it would be better to set up a human strategy that would let key people know who's out there and have something to work with, as opposed to doing nothing and trying to dodge the wolves' abilities, and hoping for a few lucky wolves to come back.

But, as from my past experiences, most would never take a risk in twg and want to play it safe the whole game. It can't be done that way this game, the wolves have too much to work with for everyone to just rely on the seer alone and "deduction." Something needs to happen soon and the earlier it happens, the better it would benefit us.

So just keep talking it through, masons should probably talk it amongst themselves for awhile also.

And as anything comes to your mind, post your thoughts on it, don't wait to see what others think before you post, it wastes time and becomes distracting because nothing is being said.

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

The only flaw I see with the revision plan is if the master wolf got seered. But, see, iggy, you're not thinking out of the box with the whole master wolf thing. The wolf would go along with the plan, because it would otherwise spell death. If the wolf chooses to not go with the plan, and ends up giving one mason name (a chance too great to take), then the masons would alert the seer, and it'd be over for that wolf. Otherwise, going with the plan, the wolf would thus remain underneath, and the seer would get wolfed the next day (or maybe a day after to avoid suspicion). The wolf would basically remain clean and be able to take out the seer, the only potential sacrifice being himself.

Otherwise though, I see no reason to not go ahead with this plan. The chances of having picked the master wolf are higly unlikely. Though it is likely that aperson got seered, we'll know if the seered doesn't come out (or if the seer indeed decides it's too risky). This gives us five people that can't be wolves (at best), and the seer can work from there.

Oh, and Afrobean.... what. the. hell. Why is chardish a wolf all of a sudden? Somebody want to clue me in on why there's a bandwagon with absolutely no backing whatsoever?

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

I am well aware of what would happen if the MW was seered: 1) seer dies, 2) all masons die 3) MW dies. 4) wolf shaman does nothing the rest of the game XD

Pretty much that unless I missed something.

[User6773]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

Iggy, I hate plans that involve people coming out and determining who's fake and who's not. I'd prefer the content of posts be analyzed and theories be made based on who's dying - that's the best way to find wolves because the wolf kill is the only record we have of guaranteed wolf activity.

As for your plan, I see it falling apart terribly if this sequence of events happens:
1) Wolf shaman saw a blue last night (1/3 chance)
2) That blue happened to be a mason (3/4 chance)
3) Wolf fakes seer and goes to the blue they saw, the blue buys it, and reveals all the masons to the wolf

That's a 25% chance that the wolves learn the identity of all the masons.

Therefore:
Masons, do not come out to anyone. That is not your role in this game. Your role is to be a secret society working together and independently to sniff out the wolves by talking amongst yourselves. Your role is not to be "confirmed greens." Your power is much greater if you remain in secret. In fact, if someone does pin you as a mason, don't reveal the other masons!

I'm actually kind of curious as to why AP was killed, since he's usually so much of a wildcard that he ends up getting lynched. By doing nothing but insult people, no matter what role he's in, he usually attracts suspicion. He's all noise and no signal.

I suspect someone's trying to set me up - there's no other good reason to wolf AP.

I suspect nforcer, because he says AP was a likely choice. I don't think he was likely at all. Also his first post used many words and said nothing of importance. "Anybody would have killed AP?" Lies. Also he supported the plan that gives the wolves a 25% chance of learning all the masons.

Eh, what the hell. nforcer.

[FFR4EVA_00]

Re: TWG XXXIII - An Alien Invasion.

Don't forget that iggy was the one who made the plan.