TWG XVII: Roasted Fanclub Chicken with Intrigue (Day 7)

[lightdarkness]

That fact keeps slipping my mind, but when I did remember it, I saw "The group was shocked, except for Milfeulle. "Don't worry about him, he'll be fine. That same thing happened to Chitose a couple of times and she always came back." ", and thought maybe that meant he was blue.... sorry, I just woke up 20 minutes ago and am sooooooooo out of it

[evilbutterfly]

I was pretty convinced he was blue. I mean, why else would he do that game that was obviously designed to save his own ass? But I suppose saving his own ass didn't work too well here. =\

[Tasselfoot]

OK... these are the players left:

talisman
hydrojakep
blahblah18
dAnceguy117
Tasselfoot
Kefit
lightdarkness
JurseyRider734
GuidoHunter
HansSky
evilbutterfly
deltro300111
Kagome

NOTE: All bold/red are just to highlight important information, not to make a vote.

I've been doing ALOT of thinking during the past 24+ hours, since Whorli died. Everything I'm going to say is based on the assumption that she was a wolf. Since if she isn't, I'm dead anyways...

1. Why was I not made the 4th wolf? I wondered this last game also, then became the vigilante, and single-handedly defeated the wolves. You'd have thought they would have learned their lesson. But, last game, what was the reason that they didn't pick me? It was aperson, TPS, chardish... and they picked Alain. Why? Because ap/Chardish were pissed at my twg-penis and wanted to spite me. Plain and simple. That was even revealed afterwards... if not in the thread, than to me privately. So, I have to assume the same logic holds true this game. The ONLY reason the wolves wouldn't pick me is if they wanted to spite me. That works, because Whorli has told me many times that is exactly what she would do, given the opportunity... and clearly no one would pick Whorli as the 4th wolf (no offense). Also, clearly, Blah wasn't picked. So... who does that leave? Talisman, LD, Kefit, Guido, Hans, eb... one of those 6 HAS to be the 4th chosen. No one else makes sense tactically. Also, back to would want to spite me... I can only think of two people: Hans and/or eb. LD would jump to have me on his team, and most of the n00bs wouldn't have anything against me and relish in having my large twg-penis on their side.

2. Who possibly CAN'T be wolves: Guido, because back at the start of day 1, Whorli told me, "I'm not a wolf... I think Guido is a wolf. You should look at Guido." This was before a single post was made... so, 99% says he isn't a wolf. I was going to say TPS, which is now given, but he isn't a wolf. LD isn't a wolf either... for 2 reasons. 1, his confusion at the start of day 2. 2, he jumped on my Whorli vote very quickly. Too early for a wolf bandwagon. Blah, for his Psychic-ness. Myself. Unlikely: Jake, because he was the 7th and last to vote Whorli... which stands out. Wolves wouldn't want to be the last to vote for their own.

2b. So, who WOULD be a wolf, based on voting for Whorli: 1 of Jurs or Hans. It would be about right for the 5th or 6th vote to be a wolf, trying to sneak a vote in for one of their own after they know that they are beyond help.

3. Who defended Whorli, at all... eb, Hans, Jurs (I believe. There may have been 1-2 others who said very very small things defending her)

4. Why was Omega killed night 1? 2 possible reasons... 1, the wolves knew he was the seer... unlikely. 2, He was the best target who wasn't a wolf and didn't have a high probability of being guarded... High probability of being guarded: Tass, Blah, Hans. Next best kills, IMO: Talisman, Jurs, Kefit, eb, LD, Guido. THEN Omega. Throw Hans into that group also, since only Blah/myself are fairly confirmed humans... and, I'd say 50/50 that all 3 wolves are in that group: Hans, Jurs, Kefit, eb, LD, Guido, Talisman. And, we know it isn't Guido. Also, I don't want to get TOO ahead of myself... so, lets just say that i'm 90% sure 2 wolves are in the group: Hans, Jurs, Kefit, eb, LD. And... combine that with the previous assumptions: Ignore #1, since that is the same list... but, Hans is in every group, Jurs is in 2, and eb is in 2...

So, in conclusion... I think that 2 of the 3 remaining wolves are from Hans, Jurs, eb. And 40-50% says the 3rd wolf is from Kefit, Talisman, or LD. No more than 1 of the 3 remaining wolves can be a n00b... or relative newbie... aka Danceguy, deltro, Kagome... again, going on the assumption that myself, blah, guido, jake can't be wolves.

[blahblah18]

didn't read his psot cuz i'm watching a movie..
just saying 3 wolves left.. so it is one of tps or whorli

[Tasselfoot]

Also... it would be RETARDED to kill TPS if he was a wolf and Whorli was human. It saves me. If Whorli is a human, and TPS is a wolf... leave TPS alive so 4 wolves come back on the psychic report, then I die... and then there are day 1 and day 2 wasted because of me. So, it would be beyond retarded for TPS to have been a wolf.

Plus, I just thought of this now.... but if Whorli had been human, she would have been ALOT more upset with me... she would have cried. And, she definately didn't. Just tried to guilt trip me with "trust".

[Tasselfoot]

LD pointed something out to me... so let me fix that now... I say he could be a wolf and also couldn't be... so, i contradict myself. So, as such, I'll put him in the middle:

2 wolves from: Hans, Jurs, Kefit, Talisman, eb, like 95%... and 80% sure on 2 from Hans, Jurs, eb...
then... the 3rd wolf, like 40-50% from Talisman of Kefit...

and, if they are all dead and there is still a wolf... LD... and then further down the list.

[Tasselfoot]

I'm gonna vote eb... few reasons... Hans/Jurs is a both can't be wolves scenario, due to the voting for Whorli. No way do 2 wolves vote for another wolf back to back. So, one is, one isn't... which by my theory means eb is a wolf. So I'll vote him, even though the evidence is slightly better against Hans... rather take someone that is like 90-95% than a 50/50.

Plus, eb really rubbed me wrongly with the "omg, I take offense at Tass taking over the game" bs. As LD said to me over AIM, it sounds like he was more saying "G-damnit... its not fair that he used IRL information to figure her out. WAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH."

[talisman]

The ONLY reason the wolves wouldn't pick me is if they wanted to spite me.

not true... the wolves didn't know if they would be able to transfer master status, so therefore they wouldn't want to pick someone like you who would obviously be the first person seered. Unless... they were told before they made their mark if they could transfer? clarification please kilga?

Hans/Jurs is a both can't be wolves scenario, due to the voting for Whorli. No way do 2 wolves vote for another wolf back to back.

This is true, and I overlooked it day one (mind you it happened after I made my vote and after I went to work) and I probably should have noticed this later when making the explanation post I promised. It makes me think that jurs is less likely to be a wolf, actually, and makes me lean a lot more towars hans.

I'll have to go back and reread eb and kefit's posts... they both followed me on jurs, which means it's doubtful that both of them are wolves. One, certainly, could be.

[talisman]

on another note, did not danceguy's vote seem contrived as hell? it could be that he's unused to the players, or it could be that he was scrambling to find someone to vote on, and didn't, as tass said, want to look suspicious by being the last to vote for whorli.

[dAnceguy117]

The ONLY reason the wolves wouldn't pick me is if they wanted to spite me.

From the sounds of it, the wolves lucked out in wolfing Omega. That would mean that they might not pick you in fear of the seer seering you night 1.

most of the n00bs wouldn't have anything against me and relish in having my large twg-penis on their side.

I could be wrong, but I don't think newbs usually have much of a say in wolves' actions.

Other than those minor things, that post makes a lot of sense to me. I'ma go back and reread the posts of Hans, Jurs, Talisman, Kefit, eb.

Oh, and nice job on sniffing out Whorli :>

[talisman]

lol nice job skipping over my posts...

[dAnceguy117]

Sorry 'bout that, that post took forever due to people constantly IMing me. Now that people have stopped, I have some time to think things over.

From eb and Jurs talking on page 1, I doubt they'd both be wolves and discuss things on the forums that much. Now then..

P337 teh 1337 (11:14:18 PM): I'll probably be out of the loop for being lazy
P337 teh 1337 (11:14:23 PM): oh well :l
Tps7910 (11:14:32 PM): No, just you Talisman and Hydro
Tps7910 (11:14:35 PM): abnd Jurs
P337 teh 1337 (11:14:47 PM): us what?
Tps7910 (11:15:03 PM): have tried

That was part of a long convo with TPS about his PMs. Of course a wolf would want to know TPS' role, but I have serious doubts that they would tell him they tried to figure it out.

So by the odds given from Tass' post, I think it would make most sense to say the remaining 3 wolves are Hans, eb, Kefit. I'll do some more rereading from those three and the relative newbs, hopefully more people will post, and I'll make my vote later.

As for my vote during day 1, I stated in that post that part of the reason I voted for LD was because I was undecided on Whorli and Jurs, the two main candidates for lynching that day. I didn't want to be the deciding factor if I couldn't make up my mind.

The part about a wolf not wanting to make the insta'ing vote makes a lot of sense in my mind, though. I don't think a wolf would want to draw any type of attention in not voting Whorli, and the two obvious exits would probably be voting for Jurs, (less likely) or not voting at all. Now, the only people that didn't vote day 1 (I think) were Kagome and Deltro.

So my final standpoint on the three remaining wolves is that I think Hans and eb are probably two of them, and then the third is Kefit, Guido (I forgot about him, oops), Deltro, or Kagome. mk so this post took awhile too. I guess I'm just a slow thinker.

[Tasselfoot]

My top choices were Hans, eb, Kefit as well.... but I didn't want to leave anything or anyone out.

Guido can't be a wolf from reasoning I gave above, or at least.... very very little chance of being a wolf. Whorli goofed big time on that.

But, also... its a pretty bad idea for wolves to get phantoms. I know they have in the past, but I don't agree with it as a decent strategy. So, especially as newer players, I'd pin inactivity on Kagome/Deltro instead of wolfishness. Kefit on the other hand, made one long post and pretty much ignored the Whorli issue, which bothered me so late in day 1. So... yea... I wouldn't be surprised if the other 3 were eb, Hans, Kefit... and, those will likely be my pushes of the next few days.

My vote stands on eb though.

[evilbutterfly]

1) I defend everybody.
2) I hate you. I only really know you from TWG, though, so I guess I can't say that, so: I hate the TWG-you.
3) I'm going to go eat ice cream now. Then I'm going to play MapleStory some more. If you wanna talk to me, go fuck yourself.
4) I know I'll die, seeing as how everybody followed Tass blindly yesterday when there was nothing, and now there's "evidence" that everybody can see. Plus there's not really anybody else worth voting for right now, so I'm screwed.
5) Although I'm screwed now, don't instalynch me. Remember, an instalynch (especially this early in the day) takes time away from the human team and gives it to the wolf team. You don't want to do that, do you? No, you don't.

[talisman]

That was part of a long convo with TPS about his PMs. Of course a wolf would want to know TPS' role, but I have serious doubts that they would tell him they tried to figure it out.

I'm thinking that what tps meant there was the people who responded to his pm, not necessarily told him they were trying to figure it out or whatever.

@eb: wtf? I'd like to give you the benefit of the doubt, but it seems hella wolfish to give up like that after just one vote and basically making every vote (assuming they come) for you later (including those from your wolf partners, if you're a wolf) indistinguishable from the next.

Also, tass' vote wasn't based solely on the fact that you "defended" whorli at all. so... your first item there makes no sense.