TWG XVII: Roasted Fanclub Chicken with Intrigue (Day 7)

[GuidoHunter]

I'm most worried about Tps's actions being a red herring. Wolf possibility. Of course, it's also likely that he's green and just wanted to make the game interesting for himself. However, if he is green, someone figuring out the riddle would end up with a very anticlimactic result and no help for their efforts. Blue possibility here.

Well, now that I've covered all the possibilities, I'll just wait until we find out so that I can say "I told you so on Day 1."

Note: Not really.

But if we want to concentrate on him, determining which of those is most likely is a good place to start. I think we can rule out him being marked, but the wolf possibility is distinct enough that I think I might vote for him today, barring, of course, any other good leads.

Yeah, Tps, your plan worked, I'm a wolf because I jumped on you because of your PM. Be careful with such things because there are reasons to vote you, especially on Day 1.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[deltro300111]

I reread tps's pm and found that he left out an obvious reason a green would contact everyone. Namely, to draw enough suspicion that he won't get wolfed for a few nights (the wolves would want him around in the day because it would be easy to make up #$% about him and try to get him lynched).

Or perhaps you know first hand, speaking of flawed reasoning.[/b]

[lightdarkness]

3 pages while i'm at work? Insane...

I didn't get a chance to really read the PM that TPS sent, i'm assuming everyone got one...

Absolutly nothing to go on, haven't talked to anyone (With the exception of hans, wolfboy), will post more later once I get in the TWG groove.

[evilbutterfly]

The tricky thing with figuring out if somebody knew about Omega beforehand, I would think, is this: who does Omega talk to on AIM? If I'm not mistaken, he didn't use any messenger AT ALL for quite some time. So, unlike the rest of us, he doesn't have a group of people that we all know he talks to on AIM all the time. Or does he? I don't really know Omega too well. And although it could have been dumb luck on the wolves' part, I'd like to think we're up against more than that. Assuming it wasn't accidental at least gives us something to look for in the mean time.

[lightdarkness]

The tricky thing with figuring out if somebody knew about Omega beforehand, I would think, is this: who does Omega talk to on AIM? If I'm not mistaken, he didn't use any messenger AT ALL for quite some time. So, unlike the rest of us, he doesn't have a group of people that we all know he talks to on AIM all the time. Or does he? I don't really know Omega too well. And although it could have been dumb luck on the wolves' part, I'd like to think we're up against more than that. Assuming it wasn't accidental at least gives us something to look for in the mean time.

He has been on AIM a lot more as of late, he's been talking to me about general awesomeness and he asked for help on his 4kth post.

[blahblah18]

A) We're pretty deep in the hole.. with 4 wolves, 1 marked, and the seer dead

Here's what's going to happen though

I AM THE PSYCHIC

I know it isn't much, and I know this really can't be ascertained now that the seer is dead, but it is true. I ask for the guardian to guard me, but not to come to me, so as to keep himself anonymous. In theory then, all I would have to gain frmo this as a wolf is to distract the guardian, but with the seer dead, that wouldn't even be needed. I will post in the thread each dayh what my psychic report was, and hopefully at least this will offer some help to us. so there you have it

[Tasselfoot]

OK... so here is the deal. As anyone who has been in an alliance with me during a game that Whorli has been apart of... I've yet to be wrong on what her role is. In TWG2 I saw her PM (which was later outlawed), so that doesn't count. But in TWG5, TWG11, TWG14, and TWG15 I correctly pegged her as a plain human within minutes (if not less) of looking at her and talking to her about it.

When she was a wolf, in TWG8, I knew she was a wolf because of LD, so that doesn't help either (plus, I wasn't playing). And in TWG10 (again, I wasn't playing), I checked her PM to see she was blue before she did.

Now, with all that history out of the way... Whorli is a wolf. Its hard for me to explain my reasoning behind this, as its all slight behavioral changes, eye movements, and other minor things. Examples: We were lying in bed and she made some comment (the exact words of which I can't remember) that was protective, when she never is to me. Then, yesterday and today when I started questioning her about being a wolf, her answers were slightly more sarcastic and defensive than usual. Also, not once did she say she wasn't a wolf... but did say she was human. Finally, in the past she was very upset that I wouldn't trust her when she told me she was human. So much so that last time she didn't talk to me for an hour or so. This time, when I replied along the lines that she WAS lying to me, she basically dropped the guilt trip routine. She did agree to a $5 wager though... I get $5 if she's a wolf. So, hun... Yes, I'd like fries with that.

The psychic should be able to verify my beliefs on day 2, although I doubt they'll tell anyone else for fear of being killed themselves.

Whorli, I love you... but I read you like a kid's book.



As another note, Hans' statement bugs me.

[blahblah18]

Just so its clear, IF whorli is lycnhed and IF she coems back human, I would advocate lynching Tass since A) he is so confident and B) she would be one of the best at spotting him being a wolf, hence him wanting her dead

[talisman]

And if no one else comes out as the psychic today... would it be safe to say that blah is telling the truth and an alliance can thusly be formed?

If someone else does pull a fake psychic or the real psychic comes out (if blah is a wolf pulling a fake psychic, which seems to me retarded for a player of his intelligence) then we would obviously have one psychic and one wolf to choose from, and would be guaranteed at least lynching one wolf in two days since the roles are revealed.

[HansSky]

I feel completely out of the loop when it comes to TPS...

I never got a PM. Can somebody fill me in?

[Tasselfoot]

Oh yea... I forgot to add... this is for EVERYONE to verify... Whorli's post back against Jurs is a personal attack back. AKA... Whorli is defending herself only, not shooting down Jurs' idea (which by the way doesn't work with Kilga running the game... but, I love everyone trying to copy me.. read: TPS too). The early personal defense is completely unnecessary and draws attention when its not needed. I've seen wolves do it in the past (I've seen humans do it too, but much less often), and when I read it, it certainly didn't sway my feelings at all.

One final note that I'll add... right after I wrote that post, I asked Whorli "are you a wolf?" and she looked me in the eyes and said no. Frankly, it makes me want to change my mind, but the first impression and previously stated reasons can't be ignored. Last game I gave HUGE logic against Blah, voted him... and then backed off. He was a wolf. I vowed to trust my first instict and not to second guess myself, so I'm not going to. I stick by my first impressions about Whorli and won't let one late "human" vibe throw me off.

[dAnceguy117]

There's something that's been bugging me for awhile in this thread, and I think I want to figure it out. Why the hell would TPS send these PMs to some, and not others?

I can't expect everyone to post just for this, but if everyone could say whether they got a PM from TPS or not, that'd be great.

[hydrojakep]

I got a PM from tps after i bitched to him. He said it was only a screw up.

[evilbutterfly]

Frankly Tass, whether you're right or not, I think using real life interactions is just plain unfair in this game. It's come up before and will more than likely come up again, and every time it does it angers me. Also, your little history of predicting her doesn't really show much, since every time it mattered you weren't in the game or you saw her PM or something. I dunno, I just see this as another attempt by you to dominate the game and control everything as you will. And if you people know me at all you should know that I HATE WHEN HE DOES THAT!! Anywho, I realized just a lil while ago that we have 3 more days to decide, so I guess that's just one way to get us started.

So, so far, we have:

Tass vs Whorli
TPS vs ...um, yeah
I think there's something else vs I have bad memory....dammit

Well, this is more than we usually have early in Day 1, so I'd say we're doing pretty good for having lost the seer. However, I see now how those mid-day seerings could really help.

And for the record: Yes I got a PM from TPS.

[Tasselfoot]

eb, I gave 3 examples that you can't use from past TWGs and FOUR that you can use where I correctly stated which role Whorli was. 4/4. And, blah has already told me that when Whorli is lynched today... cause I'm making sure that she will be.... he'll let us know the result.

If she is human, then be my guest... lynch me. I'm not wrong. I know my woman.