TWG XIV - Michigan Meetup - Day 6 - HUMAN VICTORY

[Tasselfoot]

Qreepy was not a wolf. Two left.

[GuidoHunter]

Smooth, talisman. Tass says he thinks you're a wolf with me, so you go and vote me so that it appears you aren't allied with me. It couldn't have been more poorly disguised, too, since you present no good logic. "Blah got a phantom on Day 1 and so did Guido, therefore: wolf" That, and "He knew it was hopeless for blah so he didn't make an attempt to save him" is what I got from your post. How many other people didn't vote for alain? Not only this, but your reasoning is based on the assumption that I'm a wolf; it isn't convincing of that fact at all unless you hold that prejudice. Is there something I'm missing? It sure looks like you're stretching for things here, and that's awfully sketchy to me.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[alainbryden]

I would like to post my opinion on the matter, which is that Tass is being misleading that Guido is human, and that this idea of guessing at the wolves until we get them all / lose is a stragy that maximises Tass' chances of winning at this point, and for everyone else, complete bull.

For those who have no inclination in this game, I have bolded statements that even you would be wise not to miss but trust me, if you do not read this whole conversation you are rendering yourself seriously ignorant.

I appologise for not having time stamps. The conversation flowed more or less consistently.

[irrelevant greeting]
[initial topic of conversation emitted at Tass' request]
NEIGH006: I was wondering why Kilga bandwagonned on you so quickly
NEIGH006: when your theories against Guido were so obviously flawed
NEIGH006: especially after I saw the conversation
TasselFoot: you post?
NEIGH006: not yet
NEIGH006: by the way
NEIGH006: I know you were trying to get people to actually read the conversation
NEIGH006: instead of skipping it
NEIGH006: but only cutting and pasting selectively like you did
NEIGH006: it's very manipulative
TasselFoot: of course it is.
NEIGH006: Talisman just followed
TasselFoot: i don't care that guido posted the whole convo.
NEIGH006: So I take it you don't accept his reasoning?
TasselFoot: nope
TasselFoot: only after i presented him the damning evidence did he start to defend himself
TasselFoot: as in, he took the time to think about his defenses, instead of them coming naturally
NEIGH006: lemme check time stamps
TasselFoot: i mean the post more than the end of the chat.
NEIGH006: specify what you mean
NEIGH006: the one where he quotes you a bunch and briefly reiterates what he initially said?
TasselFoot: his initial post
NEIGH006: an hour between when you made yours and he made his
NEIGH006: was he online and aware of your post as soon as you made it?
TasselFoot: yup
NEIGH006: was he interrupted by something?
NEIGH006: do you think he was talking to people as he wrote it?
NEIGH006: maybe he went for a shit?
NEIGH006: honestly, what kind of evidence is "he took an hour to make his response"
TasselFoot: who knows. i still don't like it
TasselFoot: i didn't list it as evidence
TasselFoot: just saying, specifically.... in the chat... he never really defends himself until the very very end
TasselFoot: after i mention the fact that he didn't comment on being seered as a wolf.
NEIGH006: you pride yourself at being good at this game man, but let me tell you. When you decide to go off on someone, you become almost entirely blind to logic and reasoning. What you consider evidence is, in majority, fabricated by your kiniving mind. Look at the way you posted. "kill a new person, make a new guess, everyday, odds are we will get them." You play to win for yourself, and why people are so eager to join up on your ideas, I don't have a clue, because you would be so quick to shoot them and stack up their bodies so you could climb closer to your pip.
NEIGH006: You need to take a step back, and actually consider what you have been saying.
NEIGH006: Because I talked to guido today when I saw all that had been going on, and he is much more composed about his position than you are.
NEIGH006: What you are doing is trying to lead a bandwagon, because you just want to do trial and error, and you have no real good evidence against Guido
NEIGH006: you just want the game over with
TasselFoot: i have more against guido than anyone else, plus my initial suspicions were on him.
NEIGH006: Yes, what little you have is more than the nothing you have on everyone else. Don't pretend to everyone that you are in some wonderful godly position of awareness, because you have about as much certainty for guido as I do for, say, Jenova, who posted nothing.
TasselFoot: i'm only doing what i think is best. clearly you don't agree. that's fine.
NEIGH006: I don't dissagree with your hunches. What I dissagree with is how you mislead people to think that following your every guess will have them win the game.
NEIGH006: You could easily admit at this point that it is only your best hunch, as good as anyone elses, but you are preying off everyone's laze in this game.
TasselFoot: and if i'm right?
NEIGH006: Then I consider it luck, for your reasoning is weak.
TasselFoot: ok
NEIGH006: Would you object to me posting this, so that everyone can see my opinion as stated to you?
TasselFoot: [no]

Now read it, before you half-assedly decide to instalynch Guido for Tass' no good reasons. I don't have as many pips as tass but I know this game pretty well. If you're going to be lazy and manipulated, have some consideration for more than one player's thoughts.

Just because Tass is human, it doesn't mean listening to him will make you win.

[Kilgamayan]

NEIGH006: I was wondering why Kilga bandwagonned on you so quickly

Because I had been discussing the situation with him for the 20 or so minutes before he posted.

You say this like I was stupid enough to see Tass post something and go "oh hes human and hes tass so he must be right". Please, I like to think I'm smarter than that.

[talisman]

Smooth, talisman. Tass says he thinks you're a wolf with me, so you go and vote me so that it appears you aren't allied with me.

A. We aren't allied.
B. I missed the part where he said we were wolves together, but I'll check that out.


My vote stands for now, although alain's post made me take a bit of pause in just blindly trusting tass. I'll be the first to admit I'm being a bit of a follower here, and that my reasons weren't exactly bulletproof. But the way I see it, tass has the most info out of anyone and he isn't exactly going to be sharing it all anytime soon. I'm reluctant to pick anyone else from that list of those online during the night because even though 1 or 2 were wolves, at least 2 or 3 were blues as well. And seeing how I'm neither a blue nor a wolf, and since tass would know which were blues and which were not and would obviously pick from the ones that weren't... well his pick has a higher probability of being correct than any of mine.

[Tasselfoot]

Alain, in almost every post I made early in the game I told people to come up with their own evidence or reasoning, and to not just blindly follow me. Just because I haven't continued saying that in every post doesn't mean that I still don't feel that way.

My concerns are on Guido. Maybe other people have concerns elsewhere.... so let them vote elsewhere. I pushed for Qreepy yesterday, because knowing him in the past, he freaks and goes apeshit when he's near lynching, but he didn't yesterday. Turns out his internet was down for 24 hours and couldn't respond... its random bs like that that upsets me. Had he had internet, he'd have come to me, I'd have seen he was being a stupid human, and switched elsewhere. I've already apologized to him.

Also, your bolded statements are very manipulative as well. The ones in the middle don't include my replies, just your beliefs.

What I don't get out of all this is.... who is a wolf. You're not defending Guido, just my methodology. But in doing so, it appears as to be defending Guido, which makes you look like you're guilty with him. But, on the other side, you could be a wolf, know Guido is human, and try to play it so I think you're human also because why would a wolf go to such lengths to defend a human? Or, you both could be human. Or, you could be human and Guido could still be a wolf and you could just be wrong. Or, the obvious under the situation... you're both wolves. Frankly, any of the situations could be true. And its pissing me off.

I probably have more to say, but I'm confused. Oh yea... Talisman bandwagoning on my vote is damn suspicious, as Alain pointed out, especially after I did say to Guido that talisman was the 3rd. I'm seriously confused as hell. I think I'm thinking too hard about this... going into 2, 3, even 4 reverses of logic.

[talisman]

Shit guys, I thought tass was "taking over the game" and the "plan" was just to go with him, but if that's not the case anymore, then I'll just sit and take a look at all the players like I did last game day.

Tass- Human (also had to be online during the night, since he was monitoring everyone else). could be blue.

Kilga- Human, possibly blue, or possibly seered by tass' alliance. Online during the night. He voted against blah both day one and two, and has been the first today to follow tass' vote on guido (how come I get accused of bandwaggonning and not him? His whole vote rationale was basically tass' arguments about guido "avoiding" tass and that guido once said he didn't like playing as a wolf. His argument about guido's voting for flux on day two is beyond farfetched, as there was no way anyone could get more than the 4.5 needed to save blah).

Guido- not a blue, and hasn't been seered (EDIT: seered to be shown human), or else tass wouldn't be pushing for him. Online during the night. Has been much more active since he's gotten a few votes on him, and his posts have been far more substantive. Then again, whose wouldn't? His vote on flux may, if he is indeed a wolf, have been an attempt to appear as though he was on tass' side, since tass voted that way as well.

Flux- Online during the night. He hasn't posted in a while, and his posts haven't said too much, other than his behavioral agruments against alain (which I probably mistakenly used as well). Tass voted for him, but didn't say anything last night when I suggested flux as probably my top target out of the list, making me think that, PERHAPS, tass' vote on flux was some sort of reverse psychology attempt to make it look unconnected with him, and that he may be a blue. However, that seems kind of farfetched.

Alain- Online during the night. Judging from his latest post, it seems that he would never let tass push for guido so hard if he were in on the alliance, so he probably isn't a blue. That said, other than his kind of off behavior in the beginning, which doesn't count for much, there isn't anything really strong against him as a possible wolf. Unless of course you were to take tass' idea that alain's post was a calculated attempt to save guido, and that both are wolves.

Mead- Online during the night. Other than that, he has been voting along with flux for basically the whole game. I kind of wonder where they've been today as well.

Those are my thoughts then about those who were online during the night.

Oh and I found the part in the convo where tass says I am the third and that I will be seered tonight. I assumed there wasn't anything in the convo first time I saw it because tass had already lifted the most important parts, so I skimmed it and missed my name the first time. Firefox search stopped that the second time around. I welcome being seered tonight, and I've said that I'm willing to be seered from the beginning.

[flux_]

Okay, so I read the whole guido v. tass thing. Personally, I don't believe Guido is a wolf. The most prevailent evidence are the convos where he calmly denies being a wolf. People react differntly to being accused, just because he didn't act the way you might doesn't me he's a wolf. I remember last (or two, depending on how you count it) game, LD accused me of being a wolf (when I was a human) for some reason I found it funny that he was so adamant in his position. People react differently.
(although with the other stuff, I know Tass is much better at reading people than I am so maybe I missed something with that)

So who does that leave? Out of those left, we know Tass is human, and I'm almost positive Kilga is human. I still have my eye on alain, although I feel that he is a wolf less as the game goes on. Mead, I'm not sure about; same with talisman.
I don't feel comfortable voting any of them. I am going to vote for gamepro to maybe make him, you know, post.

EDIT: I'm online fairly often if anyone wants to get my take on something or is unsure or whatever.

[Tasselfoot]

When will the day end tomorrow? I'm going to be out from about 9am until 7-8pm.

I'd like to just give the wolves something for them to think about for their wolfing:
Who is the best to kill tonight? Clearly, me. Now, I'm going to be guarded... so, please. Kill me.

Why would I say that? Its quite possible that I'm trying to draw you in, get you to attack me, get saved again. Or, I'm saying it so you attack someone else, and someone else is guarded. Who knows. All I know is, you wolves now have some things to think about in terms of my psychology.

Maybe I think the wolves think the guardian is dead, and me saying this will further make them think the guardian is dead, and they will attack me. Maybe the guardian is really dead and I could be killed.... will you take the risk? will you tempt fate again tonight? You've definately pissed off the guardian by killing 3 straight power players, so congrats with that. I DARE YOU to try it again. Can you risk it? Another save would be devastating for you....

Either way, all I know is that I'm three steps ahead of you in thinking on who to kill... I know that me saying this will force you into killing a weak player. So, will I have the guardian guard a weak player? Hahaha. I hope you have as much fun wondering who to kill as I'm having writing this and giving you theories to screw with your head.

[alainbryden]

o_O I think Tass has gone fucking crazy.

[mead1]

@alain I agree entirely.

In any case, I would like to say that though flux and I voted for alain together in the past, we have no other affiliation, and haven't even talked on AIM. Sure I have no evidence to back up my statement, but I do offer my solemn word on that.

On the matter of voting, I'm going to hold off until tonight, as I am really confused.

[lightdarkness]

day ends 10pm EDT tonight

[alainbryden]

wtf is EDT?

*edit* 9:00 EST

[lightdarkness]

Eastern Daylight Time. aka 6 hours 45 minutes from this post.

[alainbryden]

Today I'm going to vote Talisman. The reason I chose to look into him so much was because I got feelings when he started siding with Tass and what seemed in the forums, at the time, to be the 'human' thing to do. He has been much more elaborate in his posts since blah died, which has obvious implications. There is also the issue that he has taken to summarising the way other players appear in this thread as being his major posts. He clearly has been avoiding discussion with players and does not appear to respond to suspicion of him that. if I'm not mistaken, were noted by Tass and I in the thread. Either way, this is his notification. I also have a good feeling that one or both of the remaining wolves are one of the four lesser known players that are less easy to target based on their behavior, and in general, less active. Talisman is the ne among those that is most easy to fit to the wolf profile, especially after his eager attatchment to the Tass-train. Talisman, I choo-choo-choose you.