TWG XII - Velyssis Victory!

[Neonatrias]

...Alright, let's try to generate some conversation considering this game is going nowhere.

I didn't like eyespew's weird activity that was pointed out by nforcer. It was out of the blue just enough to cast some suspicion on him from me. However, that's still not to say that I'm positive of anything.

However, to base a vote off one incident like nforcer did seems a little irrational to me. Granted, it was a first day vote, and there wasn't much to go on, but I still think he could have waited to see if anything new came up. It seemed like a kind of hasty decision to me.

Lastly, eb, best of luck with whatever you have planned. Hopefully it'll give us some sort of insight. Or at the very least, something to discuss.

[ImEric12]

Last game I was very minimal to avoid suspicion. Also, I had aperson to cover for me. I'm referring to the earlier games.

[evilbutterfly]

K, so I was trying to pull in some info and whatnot from the 2 PM thing, when Tass said "using PM info to determine who is human and who is not is cheating." So, I scrapped the whole thing. Now, it's not really discussing what's in the PMs, and I was under the impression that "social engineering" was allowed (after all, AP said it would be in his campaign speech). So I don't know if using the "confused" people asking about why they didn't get 2 PMs is cheating or not. I was going through the chat log and taking note of who said what about PMs, and was gonna try to use that to narrow things down (even though somebody could easily be lying) a bit. However, since this is cheating (as Tass said that TWC said social engineering was NOT allowed, despite what AP said), I'm not gonna bother with it.

If, however, the TWC decides that doing this is okay, then please tell me and I'll go back to it. Until then, I'm back to having absolutely nothing, except that somebody who voted for TPS is definitely a wolf. But that doesn't narrow things down much at all... =\

[alainbryden]

I feel awful for Aperson, because this game appears so dead.

I'm not sure about most of you but I've been talking to several people about the game the past 24 hours and I know that the game is on peoples' minds. More than that, I know that they all have suspicions about who is a wolf. Some even have suspicions of who all three wolves are. So why then, is no one posting. There seems to be some sort of fear of coming out with any ideas. I'm seeing this in everyone, even Tass, who is posting, but baisically just posting to say you all need to speak up. No one is sharing their ideas and I think that hurts. What that leads to is two things. Bandwagonning. Hardcore. There's nothing easier than hiding behind someone elses vote when you're afraid yours might get you the attention you don't want, or you're just not certain about it. Secondly, it leads to the wolves easy manipulation of our thoughts and votes.

I refuse to believe that everyone just does care about this game. And as much as you all may think otherwise, this game cannot be won only by remote chat conversations. Perhaps you fear that a vote you make will cause people to think you are a wolf. Perhaps you fear that you will be on to something and the wolves will come after you. I've definately been experiencing the latter. Especially thrown off by the way the wolves pulled out the balls to attack one of the top players- very likely to be guarded.

Well now I'm going to go all out. Really give you something to talk about. I believe that the following three could very well describe our current wolf team. Here are my thoughts.


I'll be completely straightforward.
Jursey, neonatrias, lightdarness.
Jursey has never been a wolf before. Therefore great change in behaviour would be a good indication that something has changed. It would appear to me that she is making of an attempt to be much more objective in her thoughts, but at the same time, isn't trying to start anything against anyone. There's a subtle change there in the way she usually takes on the game. In addition to this, she maintains a persistance avoidance of the topic in other conversations. She's not as direct about her avoidance either, like she usually is. This is general evidence. The specific evidence is her recent post.

That was an interesting kill...it seems like the wolves are trying their hardest to stump us and doing a pretty good job.

Not only was this post an approach she's never taken but there is something very off about the way she brought up the wolves in that sentance and I know I'm not the only one that finds it lacking in human consideration. Baisically stating that the wolves have us fooled and that's that.
Neonatrias, he must be in my books to pull something like "

I think it's more likely that the wolves got some information about her somehow...

" out of nowhere. This makes me think that he slipped up, knowing something that we didn't. And LD? He is the only player I can think of that has the balls and lacks the immediate reasoning to attempt an attack on the second best player after tass on night one. He was also was very explicit in saying that "I was likely set up by the flypie killing" to make it easily look like he wouldn't kill because it would be too obvious. It wouldn't be the first time wolves took a step back for double reverse psychology this game. Also, he preceded neonatiras' strange words with a very similar idea, but ambiguous enough that no one could really catch on to the idea, unlike neonatrias.

It is thus that I have so far concluded that these three best fit the profile of the wolves, and and putting my vote today on lightdarkness

[lightdarkness]

And LD? He is the only player I can think of that has the balls and lacks the immediate reasoning to attempt an attack on the second best player after tass on night one. He was also was very explicit in saying that "I was likely set up by the flypie killing" to make it easily look like he wouldn't kill because it would be too obvious. It wouldn't be the first time wolves took a step back for double reverse psychology this game. Also, he preceded neonatiras' strange words with a very similar idea, but ambiguous enough that no one could really catch on to the idea, unlike neonatrias.

I was just stating my opinion on why she was killed. I really have no idea what to say to your statements, but I would love to talk to you more about why you think i'm a wolf, and more of your suspicions.

I also wanted to comment on day 1's lynching. My vote for TPS was random. Everyone in the chat saw my roll the dice, and then vote for him. In no way was I starting a bandwagon or something.

[nforcer06164]

Neo, I always start my games out looking at stuff that seems suspicious or odd to me. It's the best way I can see to get the game going. Nothing new really comes up if nobody posts, much less votes.

Somehow, I had a weird feeling after Flypie was killed, as if I should understand something about it, but it just stays out of my reach. I don't know how to describe it. Maybe one of the main reasons is the fact that she hadn't really contributed thus far, and I don't see why the wolves would kill her. For some reason, the feeling was pointing to both LD and Jursey. I'm really not sure if a vote for either of them is warranted in this kind of situation, though, so I'm going to hold off until later.

[HansSky]

Jursey has never been a wolf before. Therefore great change in behaviour would be a good indication that something has changed. It would appear to me that she is making of an attempt to be much more objective in her thoughts, but at the same time, isn't trying to start anything against anyone. There's a subtle change there in the way she usually takes on the game. In addition to this, she maintains a persistance avoidance of the topic in other conversations. She's not as direct about her avoidance either, like she usually is. This is general evidence. The specific evidence is her recent post.

That was an interesting kill...it seems like the wolves are trying their hardest to stump us and doing a pretty good job.

Not only was this post an approach she's never taken but there is something very off about the way she brought up the wolves in that sentance and I know I'm not the only one that finds it lacking in human consideration. Baisically stating that the wolves have us fooled and that's that.

Well, I'd say that's pretty damn close to plagiarism. Not word for word, but you took my wonderful research, and didn't even give me a parenthetical citation? How dare you. :P

Yes, me and alain talked about this last night, and I really have nothing else to add. I planned to post this section of his book, but I guess he beat me to it.

JurseyRider734

[alainbryden]

I'm sorry, Hans is right, I did aquire that particular idea of evidence from him. I did not mention your name because a good deal of the time, players want to avoid apparent association with other players and I wanted to respect that. Also I was weary of the fact that everyone was avoiding posting what they were thinking so I went ahead and put their ideas out there. I also appologise for structure issues as I did alot of cut and pasting from conversations and wrote the post over a long period of distracted time. I also did not have time to review my work.

Also for those of you who have ignored my post and skipped to the bolded word, I would like to stress that my suspicions lie with JurseyRider, neonatrias and lightdarkness all, but my vote stands with the latter.

[Tasselfoot]

Actually Hans, you were very concerned to start a potential bandwagon against Jursey because of her well known abilities to bitch. I'm glad you did take your idea (with some pushing from Alain) and started to work with it. I'm not 100% sure I agree with it, but it is definately looking very promising.

To Alain: My reasoning for pressing for more conversation should be obvious. I don't play this game by analyzing the behavior or differences in people's actions. I know that it is pointless for anyone to analyze my posts for subtle differences, and I like to give others the same benefit of the doubt. Plus, it is not acurate and often leads to the lynching of humans. Instead, I play by simple statistics. Easiest is for the seer to contact me, build an alliance, and work process of elimination. But, as that hasn't happened, and doesn't always happen in other games, I use my trustly excel spreadsheet to see who is helping who, who is putting the hurt out for who, etc. The more people talk and accuse each other, the more data I collect, and the better I can pinpoint who is working with who (potentially). Make sense? I hope so, because I don't think I did the best job I could in explaining it.

I may make a long post on my finding later tonight, but I'll likely hold off until day 3 or 4. More data the better guys. Accuse away.

[Afrobean]

I'm not sure about jurs or neon. I'm just not getting a wolf vibe from neon, but jurs easily could be a wolf from what I see.

I agree about LD for the most part for being a little suspicious. When I first read his reasons why flypie was probably killed, I thought to myself, "yea, or you killed her yourself so you could claim that you were being framed." Like alain, I believe that double reverse psychology could easily be being used here.

Also, I said in the chat I'd be back last night. I'm sorry that I didn't. I was skating with my friends, then I ended up spending the night at their house. I wanted to make sure to spend as much time skating as I could, because after tommorow I won't be able to again for a while.

PS Tps, if you're reading this, stop being so damn suspicious. Also, I'm sorry for not getting to finish that convo with you.

[mead1]

I've returned, and with me, I have a sack of opinions.

I haven't been in enough games to notice ever subtle nuances of behavior in a player, but it seems to me his accusing of Jursey doesn't have much merit. Maybe there is just something I am missing, but it appears the only evidence he offers up against her is subtle changes he thinks he notices. Intuition is all well and good, but there is a difference between a hypothesis and a shot in the dark, and this sounds like the latter. Even the quote he provides from Jurs doesn't seem to tell us anything. A great many of us have said something very, very similar.

On the subject of Neo, I see very little basis here either. He doesn't say what he did "out of nowhere", he said it after people had been suggesting reasons to kill flypie. That is the only thing he has on Neo.

Now, I'm gonna pull an Alain and be straight with you all, and throw out three names:

alainbryden
Lightdarkness
evilbutterfly

My reasoning behind this is as follows: each alain and eb have cast a vote for LD, this would make you think they couldn't be connected, but I feel it's part of a deeper stratedgy. eb backed up his vote with little to no evidence, and he knew no one would vote with him, so LD was safe and totally unconnected. Alain gave some good reasoning behind his vote for LD, but he also tried to incriminate 2 others. Assuming a few people did vote for LD because of what he said, a few would likely vote for one of the others, allowing the wolves to cast a stray vote or two and save LD. On LD I have only that which alain stated, and that he makes everything come full circle.

With this, my vote goes for alain.

[eyespewgreekfire]

Ive talked with alain a good deal about things (and I was the one who mentioned the linguistic similarity in jurs ld and neon, implying they killed flypie because they figured out she was a special role) and will also vote ld. Jursey and Neon are both considerably weaker players. If LD dies, and there is a drop in quality of wolfings, I think it will imply that these three are a likely combination.

[alainbryden]

And LD? He is the only player I can think of that has the balls and lacks the immediate reasoning to attempt an attack on the second best player after tass on night one. He was also was very explicit in saying that "I was likely set up by the flypie killing" to make it easily look like he wouldn't kill because it would be too obvious. It wouldn't be the first time wolves took a step back for double reverse psychology this game. Also, he preceded neonatiras' strange words with a very similar idea, but ambiguous enough that no one could really catch on to the idea, unlike neonatrias.

It is thus that I have so far concluded that these three best fit the profile of the wolves, and and putting my vote today on lightdarkness

This shows you why I could not be wolf partners with LD. Use your head. And stop trying to type with flare. It's annoying. You aren't a storyteller.

[mead1]

Perhaps you ought to clarify why that certain quote exempts you from being a wolf. I offered an entirely reasonable explanation as to all of my suspicions, you have given a quote of yourself with no explanation to refute it. I have seen you in other games alain, you adapt and try new ideas. There is no obvious reason why I couldn't be right, and you haven't stated a veiled one.

And as to the way I type, it as how I have always typed. I refuse to change my style of speech for you because it annoys you.

[evilbutterfly]

People who voted for TPS and what they said about him:

Afrobean - Bottom of Page 4, he says it's because of TPS's behavior in the chat. Doesn't really point out what behavior, though.

eyespew - On Page 4 he tells TPS to give evidence with his votes and says he thinks he only went after Alain because he wants to get rid of a big player. Later, however, he says people shouldn't be bandwagoning and considers changing his vote. It's obvious his vote was more of a warning to TPS than it was that he really suspected TPS (correct me if I'm wrong).

ImEric - Random, on Page 2.

Jursey - Right after Kilga, Jurs voted with several paragraphs that I really can barely follow. I think she's trying to say that TPS is just trying to fit in after his devious plot to kill alain failed. I think she assumes a few things...

Kilga - At the top of Page 5 he basically bandwagoned onto TPS (well, not totally. He, Afro, and Jurs all must have written their posts at the same time, as the post times are right on with each other). He said somebody of TPS's caliber should do better, but since when has TPS been of a very high caliber?? He has made stupid mistakes like this in the past, and I didn't think of him very highly (no offense). Also, Kilga usually gives more input than this with his votes, doesn't he? I can't really think of how Kilga acts, though, since he always posts so little.

LD - Page 2 In a random roll he voted for TPS, right after I voted for him for not voting. However, LD, who ought to be good with random voting now, posted that he rolled 1 16-sided die. There are 16 players, total, no? Minus blah and LD he should have rolled a 14-sided die. He rolled an eleven regardless, so, counting down the list and skipping his and blah's name, he shouldn't have voted for TPS, he should have voted for...mead. Wait a second...TPS is 10th down the list. Too many mistakes LD...too many mistakes. Well, I'm using the list on Page 1, may be he used the sign up list. Aha, TPS is number 11 there. Still, LD and blah are both before him, as is AP, so he should have voted Jurs by that list if he had done it properly.

Neo - Page 5, for flip flopping his vote around. Most of the flipping and flopping was due to TPS being confused about stuff. He really only changed his vote a couple times (which is completely normal for Day 1), if I remember correctly.

nforcer - Page 4, he voted TPS because he kept confusing names. I, for one, have been known to mix up eyespew and...hell, I can't even remember. One of those avatarless people who I always forget. Anywho, the point is, it was a pretty simple mistake, and it only happened once, but nforcer acted like TPS kept doing it.


Interesting things I saw:

Blue, over and out.

o wai

Totally missed that XD

Tass's vote for nforcer: He completely missed that nforcer explained his previously unmentioned reason right after he said that. I'd like to think Tass is more observant than that, but it could just be an honest mistake.

I think Afrobean is acting smarter than usual this game. Especially at the start of Day 1, he was more active and said very good stuff. As such, it seems a bit unusual that he would vote for TPS, when he ought to realize that TPS was just being stupid.

Anywho, I've been writing this post for a long friggin time (in Notepad (:P) since I made my last post earlier) so I probably have some thread reading to do after I make it. If anything I say is repeat of earlier, sorry!