TWG IX - Manhunt - End of Day 2 - Game Over

[alainbryden]

This is feeling really hopeless, but I'm going to make a very good attempt to nail the wolf. I'm giving it everything I got now.

I can easily remove my name from the list. This is for myself, if you think there's reason to believe I'm a wolf then by all means, leave it there.
I can easily remove Tsuteto from the list, Tass would never make him his Mirage, because he was not fond of how Tsuteto played in the past.
I don't have evidence to remove anyone else from the list at all. Nothing is very certain in this particular game for some reason.

So many people are putting in such human advice, encouraging sharing of information and everything, but a really good wolf would be trying hard to seem human by giving actual good human advice and analysis. Objectivity even. So out of

GuidoHunter - Zeta
HansSky - Iota
Kefit - Kappa
Kilgamayan - Lambda
Nforcer06164 – Mu
Roopert - Omicron
The_Q – Pi

The_Q – Pi
I'd have to say if the wolf is trying to pull a "kill all but one good player so that they fall suspect" I don't want to fall foir it, but Tass took forever to update and this would correspond very much to a certain inactivity we experienced yesterday. The fact that Q has been so inactive for the game, and not on the past long time, makes me wonder about him.

Roopert - Omicron
Roopert has been one of the one's that has been giving such human advice. He's been urging everyone to share information, has been around the thread frequently, and has given quite a bit of opinion on people, but not to much. He's also drawn no attention to himself. A seemingly flawless human character and as much as that makes me trust him, he's such a good player and it does the exact opposite therefore, and makes me wonder if he's putting on a face. Roopert is very indescernable to me and it may be because I haven't talked to him on aim before.

Nforcer06164 – Mu
I've talked to him on Aim quite a bit, and he seems relaxed and into the game. I am very disinclined to beleive that nforver06164 is Mirage. I do not think he is yet an experienced enough player to put up such an effective front and he contacts me often and doesn't show hesitation in the way he speaks about the thread. This leads me to beleive that he is very much human and I am removing him from my list.

Kilgamayan - Lambda
I have been afraid to start voting kilga just because he's always so confrontational and relatively inactive in the tread. When he is active in the thread he tends to be irrelevant in his posts more than pertinent. These are seemingly very strong wolf characteristics, but Kilga has been in the game for so long, and repeats this behavior each game he's in. Infact, it is the day that Kilga attempts to be helpful and objective that I will really gain suspicion. For this reason, despite my ever gut instinct against Kilga, I have to leave him out of my list.

aside
I do have to keep this list short people, we only have 3 more lynchings, and at this rate, not much more evidence is going to present itself. The wolf is doing a good job of keeping his wolfings indescernable whilst seemingly stacking evidence against other individuals. That is the tremendous benefit of wolfing two people per night. While one vote is thought out and chosen carefully by the wolf (Blah tonight) the other keeps people confused by being somewhat off predicted targets.

Kefit - Kappa
In recent games I've talked occasionally with this guy, and he usually comes off very friendly, and human when he is, and one can often notice his presence constant in the thread, if not his posts. He is not usually a frequent poster, but usually has many helpful analysis to give. I have not noticed this happening in this game. He's posted, and voted, but hasn't talked to me on msn yet, and has seemed to lack presence in the thread, which I've followed quite closely. For this reason Kefit remains on my list although not in a critical position.

HansSky - Iota
The problem with Hans is that he always comes of as being human to me. He just has a very naive seeming disposition, even though he's proven himself to be very good at the game. He posts in a very casual, but carefully pertinent manner. He also makes an attempt to be critical of others but not harass them. He has opinions that he shares strongly but does not force. It does not always seem to me that he has a great amount of influence in the thread but her really does. Hans is clearly a skilled player, and as a human, he comes off as being suspicious because he seems like he is being so careful. He never racks up much suspicion in a game because of his very careful manner. I would be more suspicious of his careful behavior about the game if he did not communicate his humanity in this fashion in all his past TWG games. I feel quite good about Hans, and I'm going to remove him from my list. I'll be upset if it is him, because it is still possible, but based on how little time we have, I'm going to have to pull this trust so that we can focus more on the people who we have reason to be critically suspicious of.

GuidoHunter - Zeta
I would have little difficulty believing that Guido is mirage. He has been active in the thread, but does not strike me as having been particularily influential. There is no need for mirage to be influential in this game, because he needs to defend no one but himself. Hans made a great point about how Guido overreacted to his post concerning the relevance of Charlotte's 'information'. Guido has been in many games, has proven himself to be a good player, but he strikes me in this game as being more distant, and overcritical. He's been around long enough to know how to be a good wolf, which is why it strikes me as odd that some of his posts have been out of his ordinary character. As a wolf, would he be so imprudent as to mess that up? I don't beleive so, but there is alot of pressure on the wolf and if Guido is the wolf, that would certainly show through in the way he pushed the HansSky deal a little too far. He will be on the top of my list.

So I have cut the list down to four, and I will put the reputation of all my twg history at stake in confidence that the wolf resides among this list, and most likely in the top three. It is unusual for me to place my vote so early in the day, but I am going to put my vote at the top of the list and as the list reorients itself with the presenting of new evidence or ideas from my fellow humans, so will my vote.

GuidoHunter - Zeta
The_Q – Pi
Roopert - Omicron
Kefit - Kappa

[HansSky]

I agree with alain. If not anything else, at least about Guido.

Guido has been in my suspicions from the beginning, simply because he was the person that held the special place in my gut. Instinct says that Guido is a wolf. My gut has picked out a wolf from the very beginning in the past three game. Cypher, Stretchy, and(although I didn't play) LD.


But I absolutely did NOT want to go on that. There is only one wolf in this game, and my gut could most definitely be wrong. I have never placed my instinct as being: Ok, if my gut says yes, he must be a wolf. But I do make it apart of my decision-making.

So, as I read this thread, I analyzed each post, trying to find something....irregular. And Guido's post caught my attention more than any other one. This was because of my gut, his vote for me, and his outlandish claims.

Instinct aside, I find this post to be more bizarre than any other I have read. Charlotte posted a lot of unnecessary material, so I told him to find what he thought was important, and post that.

So, Guido think that's enough to put a vote on me(besides my inactivity, I suppose).

That other post I made was very cautious, but this one, I feel, is not. The fact that I even mentioned my instinct is going to get me in trouble. But I really do think Guido is a wolf. I wasn't even going to talk about it this much, but alain apparently has faith that I am a human, and agrees that Guido is a wolf. I'm guessing the support is what made me go all out on Guido, but we'll see what happens.


So, now that everything is said and done...Zeta.

[nforcer06164]

You mean THE wolf, HansSky? Or the Hunted, maybe? o.o

One thing I failed to realize earlier, and that I would like to add concerning Gui... errr... Zeta... is that he pointed out somthing that could be applied to ANY inactive player.

I must say, as much as Delta's been giving himself away, I didn't see enough behavior that seemed wolfish to vote for him today. In fact, I really didn't see much of that from anybody...

Except Iota. The theme to this game is "Silence gives Mirage the win." I felt that Delta just wanted to put out all the information that he possibly could so that the humans could draw their own conclusions, which is something I most certainly liked. But Iota comes in and demands that Delta hold back potential leads. I kind of see where he could sneak that by, because some of the stuff said really wasn't pertinent, but I want to know everything I can for this game.

Information is the key to a human victory, and I don't want Iota keeping any from us.

--Guido

Now, couldn't he have applied this to any player who hasn't posted much, even me? He singled out one, though. And how could Hans be "keeping information" when there's only one wolf, the Hunted? And Delta wasn't posting anything particularly relevant... blah pointed that out, too. Now, it would make sense that Zeta would take out Beta, right? With the way that he acted on Hans? The only reason he would take out someone like Iota out is to throw us off his trail. The relevance of this post wasn't that great until last night's kill. It makes more sense now. I don't feel like overdoing my analyzation because it didn't work twice, but it's enough, still, to get a vote from me for Zeta.

Thanks, alain. I'm just about as upset about blah as you are.

nforcer06164: ouch
nforcer06164: they got ya
mastr414: O WELL
mastr414: avenge me
nforcer06164: oh, I shall!
nforcer06164: (as soon as I figure out who it is)
mastr414: ha

After that, I have decided to create the "AVENGE BLAH!!1" alliance. Care to join, alain?

EDIT: Notice that "Hunter" is in GuidoHunter's forum name? Could this be a diversion tactic? OH SNAP!!

[roopert]

Well, since there is nothing to really go off of aside from hunches and I have no one better in mind, I'll go jump on and vote zeta for now. I would really like to see Guido's response to all of this.

[Charlotte21]

"John Nash is crazy and talked to himself... so I am going to as well!" exclaims Delta.

"And you wonder why we're offing you. If I had Mirage's job, I'd be like you too." says Rho with a sigh.

"Enough!" shouts Mu. "What I'd like to know is... where have Iota, Pi, and Sigma run off to? Their not being here for this makes me suspicious of them."

Iota, Pi, and Sigma now each have 1 phantom vote

*Delta, resigned to his fate, pulls out his hunting knife and jabs it into his stomach. He collapses and gasps for air. Blood spurts out of his mouth, and silence follows.

I found that death quite humurous, was a gg for me guys.

Btw, I wasn't mirage

[alainbryden]

Careful with that Roopert, I hadn't intended to end discussion this fast. One more vote for Zeta is an insta-lynch

[Kilgamayan]

just because he's always so confrontational

WHAT THE FUCK WHY I OUGHTTA

o sry

Anyway, the evidence against Zeta is better than most I've seen against anyone else, and is likely better than any else we'll see. I kinda hate voting for him since it would halt discussion entirely for the day though, and that would make me look pretty bad. =\

Regardless, I doubt that we won't have a single vote for Zeta within the next few new posts, and if anyone has information they want to spread, they could always PM it to everyone.

[roopert]

I change my vote to Pi at least until Guido responds.

[GuidoHunter]

Okay, so I've been a bit distant. It happens on weekends, especially when stretchy's around. I still paid attention to the game, but never took the time to sit down and write anything. Plus, there hadn't been too much to go off of.

Regarding my vote for Iota: I needed something somewhat solid for a vote. I had had some suspicions about several of the active members, but I was fairly convinced of their humanity, also. Iota's post did make me think "stifling information" from the start, and I wouldn't put it past him to try to do that if he is Mirage, so now I have a sneaking suspicion about someone who hasn't put up any defense at all (because he hadn't needed to at the time). I could have bandwagon voted for Delta, but I figured I'd bring another member (previously inactive) into the game. My "overreacting" was simply in response to Iota's supporting the one thing that pretty much assures Mirage the win. Like I said, I didn't have any better leads. I know I'm notorious for coming out strong against people who are actually human, but I figured it wouldn't be too harmful with all the votes against Delta.

@nForcer: I wasn't saying anything about his inactivity, just what he said in his actual post. If you read my earlier posts, you'll see that I had asked for more people to get involved; too many people were being too quiet. It seems you are slightly confused about my intentions with the post, but hopefully the above paragraph cleared some of that up.

@roopert: If you wanted to see what I had to say, putting me that close to an insta-lynch might have made your plan backfire.

EDIT: roop changed his vote.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[roopert]

Eh, Guido's post really didn't make me think he is human. It wasn't overly defensive like a bad wolf's would have been, yet it didn't seem much like a post a human would have made to save himself when he is obviously on the chopping block. It's almost as if he doesn't want to try too hard, because that is suspicious, and isn't being defensive enough, instead. I know this isn't rock solid logic, but at this point I'm willing to go out on a hunch. I have finals starting tomorrow, so I have no idea when I am going to post again. I change my vote back to zeta

[GuidoHunter]

Okay, I realize that I'm going to have to provide a sound alternative if I'm going to stand this jury.

Unfortunately, my alternative isn't as sound as I'd like one to be, but it's better than nothing. To me, the person who's been the most suspicious this game is still, but even moreso now, Iota. For a few reasons.

He's been quite unhelpful so far. The only posts I can remember him making are the ones on which I've commented (2). One of them didn't have any substance while the other was the attack on me. What basis did he have? A gut instinct. Sure, he realizes that saying that would get him in trouble, but that doesn't make his basis any more convincing. I know I pointed out things that would put suspicion on me when I was a wolf. So he has a gut instinct. What else? My posts look "suspicious" and "irregular" and "catch his attention". Anything more? He aligned himself with a very credible player (Alpha). It's quite a good strategy to mention your smart friends when your argument itself isn't the least convincing. So, Iota sees a bandwagon for the guy who brings his name to the light and jumps on it. An easy way to get another human lynched.

One last thing, I'm not one to consider inactivity to be wolfish behavior at all, because I certainly know how it is to just not be around or not want to make a post.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[HansSky]

Okay, I realize that I'm going to have to provide a sound alternative if I'm going to stand this jury.

Unfortunately, my alternative isn't as sound as I'd like one to be, but it's better than nothing. To me, the person who's been the most suspicious this game is still, but even moreso now, Iota. For a few reasons.

He's been quite unhelpful so far. The only posts I can remember him making are the ones on which I've commented (2). One of them didn't have any substance while the other was the attack on me. What basis did he have? A gut instinct. Sure, he realizes that saying that would get him in trouble, but that doesn't make his basis any more convincing. I know I pointed out things that would put suspicion on me when I was a wolf. So he has a gut instinct. What else? My posts look "suspicious" and "irregular" and "catch his attention". Anything more? He aligned himself with a very credible player (Alpha). It's quite a good strategy to mention your smart friends when your argument itself isn't the least convincing. So, Iota sees a bandwagon for the guy who brings his name to the light and jumps on it. An easy way to get another human lynched.

One last thing, I'm not one to consider inactivity to be wolfish behavior at all, because I certainly know how it is to just not be around or not want to make a post.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

Guido, that is the most we have seen thus far. The greastest evidence we have seen lies at your feet. No relations to my gut at all. I'm not the only one who has seen it, I'm just the first one to bring it up.

Also, I'm not aligning myself with anyone, I haven't talked to alain once this game. I was just glad that somebody agreed with me.

I wouldn't purposely put myself in the spotlight if I was the Mirage. Nobody gave me an invitation, I made that post ony MY OWN. I'm coming out against you, and if I was the wolf, I would know there is a another day of lynching. And if you're not, I'm most likely the next to go. What kind of shitty strategy is that? To make up evidence(which I'm not) against a player, and get the people on my side. For THIS DAY. Then tomorrow, people will be pissed that they lost, and call wolf on me. 'Oh well, at least I had them going at the time.' You need to have them going the entire game. Which is what I believe you are trying to do.

In closing:

God help me if you aren't the Mirage.

[Tsuteto]

Meh, like anybody cares what I post now.

Anyways, my vote reaches out to Kappa. I know it's a crappy conclusion for me, but I like thinking on the spot more than long term. That is probably one of the reasons why I'm not really into the game. Probably the MAIN reason actually.

Nonetheless, the reason I vote fore him is because Beta voted for him. Not wanting him to be voted again the next day, eliminate the threat. The other half was because of the player's ability. The other being killed, Rho, was most likely done at random. Part of my reasoning voting for Kappa though is kinda do to gut. I don't believe Zeta is Mirage, nor most others. My only thoughts are Kappa (whom I'm voting for), Pi, and, possibly, Alpha. That is ordered from strongest to weakest conclusions.

Yeah, I know, everyone knows I'm most likely human at this point due to Alain's words. And I know my reasoning is crappy. But TWG isn't as fun as I thought it was. After this is over, I'm probably done with TWG for good. You can all rejoice.

[alainbryden]

Well since no one else is posting anything I'll post what I think. I think right now I'd be satisfied with closing the deal on Guido, I didn't say it because I was pretty sure one of the other 3 people who are in this game would say something, but if everyone figures that they don't have to talk because it looks like it's settled with guido, well that just sucks. I definately don't want this day to end until we hear from Q.

[The_Q]

Ok, so I forgot that TWG existed. I'll be honest with you guys but I just hate the game. End of story.

Anyway, I know I'm holding things up. I'll just insta-lynch Zeta and get it over with.

Q