TWG IX - Manhunt - End of Day 2 - Game Over

[Kilgamayan]

tl;dr

[blahblah18]

ok, this game has been absurd...
here's my random guess, but its fairly accurate
i'll put the people in 2 groups
Group A: me alain kilga kefit Q
Group B: The others

its probably a 50-50 shot that its from one of those 2 groups.
I know that i'm not the wolf, so that narrows me out. I don't think Alain would kill who he did if he was wolf. I'm gonna give Q benefit of the doubt for things posted, and go with kefit for now, although there isn't the most to support it, except for just some differences in how he is acting. Although while saying this, I think he would have killed me over chardish if he was the wolf... so I think i'll be changing this shortly.. but now I think that it was kefit that told me it doesn't matter who you kill as long as thety won't be guarded and theey won't be linked to you.. so I guess on kefit it'll stay..

[alainbryden]

Uh wow.

Okay, so back to reasoning, I wanted to add that I beleive the wolf would be fairly new to the game. The first vote was EB and Chardish. Everyone knows that there is no guardian so no risk of voting a strong player and getting rejected. It seems that the wolf had in mind the strategy to take out the very strongest players until the end of the game. It is a fact that when only strong players are voted off, it gives us very little if anything to work off of, because anyone could argue a strategy for doing it no matter what level of the game you are. What gives information away here is that the wolf clearly had the goal of taking out two strong players, but anyone who's played TWG for more than one, maybe two or three games knows that EB is in the top ten perhaps, but really was only lucky for having the alliance head chair of the round table fall into his lap. It is thus that I am now more inclined to beleive that only people new to TWG are possible wolves.

This is a list of all people I consider new to TWG, and thus likely to beleive EB is a stronger player than he really is.

Charlotte21 - Delta
Nforcer06164 – Mu
Tsuteto - Sigma

I would bet my rep that one of the wolves is probably amongst this list. I doubt in this case that a good player has taken out EB to try to influence thinking like this, allthough I don't rule it out. These people will be subject to my greatest critisism and most likely, my votes as well.

[alainbryden]

I'm removing Tsuteto from that list because Tass verbally abused him as being a terrible wolf and wouldn't make him the wolf and have his game go to the shits like that. IT makes it into a really select list and I'm thinking therefore there's probably flaw in my logic. I find it hard to beleive that we can narrow it down to just two people on the first day.

[Tasselfoot]

Note: Delta is used twice for this reason. The most elite unit within the US Army is what? Delta Force. So, our good friend Mirage is said to be an ex-Delta, as they are referred to as. So, that is why he is referenced ONCE as Delta. All other references to him are by his name, Mirage. I used the greek alphabet for codenames for everyone, so obviously Delta is going to be used there as well. I thought everything was made clear about this as always. At the start of the game, Delta (Charlotte) had a 1/14 chance of being Mirage. Now, its 1/12.... There is no statistical relation between the two whatsoever. Stop talking about it.

[User6773]

The most elite unit within the US Army is what? Delta Force.

It's FOXHOUND, you ninny.

[evilbutterfly]

Chardish, you're not allowed to post anymore after you die!

Oh, whoops XD

[alainbryden]

I expect that by the end of the game, the wolf will leave one good player, as the final distraction. Everyone will be so suspicious of there being only one great player left and all the others gone. He will practically be instalynched. The wolf will have an easy last day at this rate. UNLESS we remember that just because someone who's good didn't get wolfed, it doesn't mean they aren't human. This is a setup that's been done in the past. The goal of this post is to not let it happen again. I'm doing it early enough that it doesn't look like I'm just doing it to defend myself.

Also, I'm tempted to vote Charlotte. His name is getting tossed around so much, that I really feel something must be up. Plus he's new and, as we saw in one of his posts, he thought EB was a strong player and claimed that "the wolves killed two strong players the first night and no one can really draw any conclusions from that." (paraphrased) I'm also pretty sure that Tass wouldn't have had anything against giving Charlotte the Wolf role. He proved himself to be quite intelligent beforehand, allthough he has been letting some of us down. Charlotte has been flooding the boards with conversations, and not giving any analysis of them. He doesn't come off as being particularily human in any of the conversations either, and the manner in which he talks changes from person to person. This, however, could just be his attempt to fit in with the character of the person to whom he is talking for social reasons, not wolf ones. Furthermore, I know Tass said several times it wasn't basis, but just the fact that he pressed the Delta issue so much, despite it not really being a problem in the first place, leads me to beleive that he's trying to defend his wolf. This certainly would not be the basis of my vote though. Charlotte also acts from and speaks of pressure in the game. It could be that he is just new but it seems that even a new human wouldn't feel so excitable in this particular style of TWG game. It's a much calmer game for me, I know, there are many less factors playing in and it is strictly an analysis of a person, not their relationship with other people. Finally, as Charlotte is new, Tass might find it preferable to select a new, but seemingly skilled player for this challenge of his, so that we would not have previous behaviors and strategies with which to compare. In the past, I know I have more or less avoided analysing the people I don't know much about. I was going to hold off my vote, but I think I've convinced myself quite firmly that Charlotte is a good choice.

[Tasselfoot]

Day 1 ends at 8pm EST tonight (or after the IND/NE game ends so I can lock it). I believe there are only 3 votes in so far. 1 for Delta, 2 for Pi.

[Tps222]

GRRR Doug Brien....

After my hours of weeping yesterday, i have come back to read the forums. Delta's posts of aim convo's are excruciatingly long. I read most of it, but it is a little too long for me, try just posting what is important. From what I read in the convos Q has been acting a little weird, he just doesn't seem suspicious to me. Delta would be a good choice, because of what Blah stated above, but i don't want to jump to conclusioncs just yet, there is still ample time left to discuss this, and i'm wait for more posts from nforcer to come up, and some other innactive players.

*goes back to weeping*

[Tps222]

I don't want to edit my post above, so i am forced to double post sorry.

I meant to say

Delta would be a good choice, because of what Alain stated above, but i don't want to jump to conclusioncs just yet

[Kilgamayan]

After thinking about it for a while, I've decided that of my three suspects, Delta is the most likely candidate.

And not because of the whole Delta thing in the beginning of the game.

[roopert]

Well I have been unusually busy lately, and as I write this I am being urged out the door by my family, so I'll try to make it quick. I think this game is a whole lot of hunches and guessing, and not much else. I know that if I were the wolf, I would win easily. However, since we have to somehow FIND the wolf, I'm going to go with my strongest guess: blah. I do think it will be easier to narrow it down on the last day, but until then all we can do is wait and talk.

[Charlotte21]

(I spent ten to fifteen minutes after typing this deciding whether or not to post it and since I didn't have time to post anything else, and since I can't post after I'm lynched...)

Well, since I am about to leave and won't be @ a computer when this ends, I have a gut feeling that no matter what I am being lynched tonight for my n00bish mistakes and the way I've been stimulating the game. Nonetheless, I see it as a good move because in my overly-activeness I am giving the wolf a very easy day 1, and probability of an easy day 2.

I thought of the things I could post that would be helpful at this point, and took into accord the possibilities of other things, but I'm pretty sure I'm dead and there is no changing it. My name has been thrown around since day one and people automatically expected a higher level of gameplay than I could give, which is in a way a compliment to my ability. And alas, no, I made the same old newbish mistakes every newb makes, and it was worse because everyone thinks Tass has respect for me.

Though I will follow through with this: You guys are retarded for analyzing the kill based on who Tass would pick, and this game will be impossible for the humans if you keep doing that. There needs to be some serious communication going, otherwise all decisions are going to be using the reasoning fallacy of over-analyzing things, and the entire game is going to be chance.

Everyone keeps saying:
"I'll make a decision when there is more to go off." Well, there isn't, day one is almost up, and that "more to go off" you wanted isn't coming unless you bring it into the game.

So, then, I come upon this decision: Adam Smith vs. John Nash. Should I do what is best for myself, or do what is best for the group? Well, the former in this game will lead to mirage's victory on a silver platter with the humans dressed in maids outfits and "Mirage is teh r0xx0r" signs around their necks. So from here, what decision can I make that is best for the group? I can only think of one thing: My vote goes for Delta. I can no longer bring anything else to the human side, and if I were to survive I would kill the game by leaving the hanging suspicion for myself through the entire game. The day two kills would probably be tailored to look like they were mine, wasting another day on "Charlotte Suspicions".

Remember the mantra... Communication wins for the humans, Silence gives mirage the game. Nothing is going to win this game except communication. Waiting for "more to go off" is like buying mirage a drink so he can relax while he reads the thread. Remember the mantra.

[blahblah18]

just so you know that was the most retarded thing ever... it practically forces people to vote you.. and if you're wolf, that hurts your team, and if you're human that hurts your team... ridiculous

and tass i voted kefit, not Q so i'm confused as to the vote count