jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

[lynn34melissa]

Re: jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

Thoughts:
I believe that dfr was a wolf, but we cant know that. what we do know is that the roleblocker is still around and we have a useless medic (no offence but your permanently countered since our seer is gone). Hopefully we don't mislynch tonight and have 2 wolves still in play.

Why they may be wolves or can't be:
If red was role blocked that means that he cannot be a wolf; meaning he's town.

If reuben was wolf he may have killed his partner (dfr) in order to eliminate a large amount of suspicion from him.

If jhet was a wolf then (assuming dfr was the first wolf) it wouldn't make much sense to cast the first vote on him (this leads to further suspicion and reasons why that prson could be wolf). In other words if one wolf remains jhet is not that wolf.

If tiloco was wolf it would explain the desire to kill t-fore who asked for a seeding, however killing t-force would be a stupid move to make that night. In this case I believe t-force was killed in order to cast suspicion on tiloco.

If Melissa was wolf then... I would keep my brother alive until last night, and I would have killed tiloco or red because I'm usually not on their radars as a prominent wolf. Thus it wouldn't be too suspicious.

Worst case scenario:
We havnt killed any wolves and thus a seer probably would have come in handy. This of course makes my reason for thinking Reuben a wolf invalid.

[Red Blaster]

Re: jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

Thoughts:
I believe that dfr was a wolf, but we cant know that. what we do know is that the roleblocker is still around and we have a useless medic (no offence but your permanently countered since our seer is gone). Hopefully we don't mislynch tonight and have 2 wolves still in play.

Why they may be wolves or can't be:
If red was role blocked that means that he cannot be a wolf; meaning he's town.

You contradict yourself in the first paragraph. You think DFR was a wolf, then go on to say if we mislynch we'll still have 2 wolves left.

Did you miss me being confirmed town by the seer? Yes getting blocked points towards me be town, but at this point I've been 100% cleared by T-Force's seering reaults considering there isn't a Godfather in this game.

[Red Blaster]

Re: jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

If anything your reads bring up more questions than they answer.
You've literally said "Oh xxx could be a wolf..but also couldn't be." about everyone.

[tiloco217]

Re: jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

If tiloco was wolf it would explain the desire to kill t-fore who asked for a seeding, however killing t-force would be a stupid move to make that night. In this case I believe t-force was killed in order to cast suspicion on tiloco.

I don't have any idea what you are talking about here. When did I have a desire to kill t-force at any point? Also if you agree with the reasons why I wouldn't kill t-force then why would t-force dying cast suspicion on me?

[tiloco217]

Re: jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

I would prefer to know your opinions on each player and how they have changed throughout the game. You have said what your opinion of worlds involving DFR but you haven't said how you read each player which is more important in my opinion.

[Cold Kitten]

Re: jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

23 hour and 30 minutes remain in the phase.

[Red Blaster]

Re: jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

Hi Melissa

[Red Blaster]

Re: jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

[Jtehanonymous]

Re: jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

If Melissa was wolf then... I would keep my brother alive until last night, and I would have killed tiloco or red because I'm usually not on their radars as a prominent wolf. Thus it wouldn't be too suspicious.

This is quite possibly the most confusing part of your post, Melissa, and it's about yourself. ?.?

WHY would you keep Reuben alive until the last night if you are a wolf, there are no reasons given. And...it doesn't really help either because benguina is still alive...? Do you mean "last night" as in you would have killed him last night?
And your second reason is that you would kill people who don't have you on their radar. Red Blaster, however was on you very clearly during the last lynch. He was insisting on you over and over again, so I'm not sure how that last reason follows.

After reading what Melissa said here, now I feel even worse about her. All the reasons she listed for people are just restating things that have happened and she's assuming are "probably" true.

Also T-force dying can't be taken to mean anything. He wasn't even out as seer at that point and it was tiloco who even further pressed to be seering.

So in summary, what?

I'm starting to think that I will make a really silly mistake if I am to give Melissa the newbie pass for this one because overall this is the vibe I'm getting:

Clearly she's reading over the whole thread and is developing thoughts because she's using all sorts of events that indeed happened throughout the game. However, she's not placing them in her reads in a way that logically would support a conclusion. It's like you're working on a vocabulary worksheet and you have to match each word in the first column to the definition in the second column. Melissa has just taken each conclusion in the first column and connected it to a random reason and thus that post was generated.

You've shown evidence of following the thread in its entirety, but at times you're simply creeping in as well and when you finally do present something, the best I can say is "You're paying attention".

Red, if you truly believe that what tiloco, ben, and I are posting is identical (this I could argue against a bit more), how awful would a Melissa lynch be at this point? In fact, what is anyone's thoughts on a Melissa lynch?

Personally, I feel if dfr was NOT a wolf, then Melissa would be based on what transpired at EOD. Therefore, in the worst case, I think that lynching Melissa gives us the first wolf/continues to leave us with one wolf. After that point though, it would very difficult to pinpoint which of dfr or melissa was the wolf after you've taken both out. If an additional kill happened after that, maybe it'd become easier with whoever is left in the pool.

I really see a possibility in melissa/benguina because benguina has had opportunities to really go for melissa, but has backed off in the past. Also when reviewing the most recent posts, tiloco's post had very fair reasons that resonated much clearer to me than Benguina's mechanical combination posts and if/then logical posts.

We need some sort of direction guys.

[Red Blaster]

Re: jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

What I said about you guys all posting the same thing is quite valid and I'd actually invite you to argue it.
You were all making the potential wolf pairings analysis posts at that time and they were virtually identical in terms of content.

Regarding Melissa, she was my initial top wolf, but due to her just not being around I've put her on the backburner. I wouldn't be opposed to lynching her as even if she were a human she's not proving to be a veey useful one..most of her posts just bring up more questions than answers and just generally don't seem very genuine. However, given that I still believe there are 2 wolves alive I think lynching her could be construed as a cop out pseudo-inactive lynch type of situation.

If we lynch her and she turns out human and we're in a 2 wolf world it's game over, and I'm pretty nervous that this could potentially be the case.

[Jtehanonymous]

Re: jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

If we lynch her and she turns out human and we're in a 2 wolf world it's game over, and I'm pretty nervous that this could potentially be the case.

Who should the lynch be between then for this phase? Just Reuben, Tiloco, and me? Because you are confirmed green, I'm going to be much more willing to go with an initiative presented by you rather than Benguina or Tiloco, no matter how great a picture they paint for me, and everyone else should also be keeping that in mind as well.

[tiloco217]

Re: jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

I agree that it is very likely that there was a mafia between Melissa and DFR. However I do think that a world of Jteh and Reuben is still a possibility. Both Jteh and Reuben, what points can you bring up to discredit that world?

[Red Blaster]

Re: jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

Nooooooo >_<
I don't wanna be in this position.

[Red Blaster]

Re: jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

I'd just like to say, Melissa if you are indeed a human, PLEASE get in here and make some sort of convincing case for yourself. As it stands currently you're probably going to be lynched for the sole reasoning that you haven't been a convincing towny yet. You've also got a few black marks against you such as lurking at various times, demonstrating knowledge of events spanning the game but yet not contributing or commenting on certain things..often times contradicting yourself in your posts.

You are definitely an oddball thus far, but the big question is: inexperienced town or coached wolf?

[Jtehanonymous]

Re: jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

I agree that it is very likely that there was a mafia between Melissa and DFR. However I do think that a world of Jteh and Reuben is still a possibility. Both Jteh and Reuben, what points can you bring up to discredit that world?

I can use a similar argument that I've seen you use in this thread before. My read on Benguina has been evolving throughout the entire game. As such, my reads on him have been very unrestricted. Now that I think about it, I don't feel the same is true in the opposite direction.

At the very beginning of the game, he was right at the bottom of my list from the get-go. My reasoning stemmed from his bizarre/complicated reasoning amounting to conclusions that just didn't follow or wouldn't be the ones that you'd readily jump to.

After his fairly good page of posting that followed, I did back off for a while, especially with the way he responded to my own reads list. Out of everything I said, for some reason he still felt the need to point out that I left out a lot of Melissa's sketchy behavior from my reads which still is an odd thing to point out from everything I said.

However, you can see me freely giving him even more pressure during the second lynch when there was a CLEAR direction going between either dfr and Melissa. I came back into the thread and quite possibly one of the first things that I say is how sketchy Ben is being in his waffling between Melissa and dfr, as if he's unsure about how to handle it/appear to the rest of town. With the direction so solidly set on one of those two candidates, why would I change my read from being "okay" with Ben to driving up discussion right at that moment. I could very well have just camped out and been like "lol okay dfr it is" without going even further to point such details out.

And even now, I am expressing a healthy amount of suspicion in the both of you, quite possibly even more so on Benguina than yourself, Tiloco. This is even in a situation where just before the start of this phase, I'm pretty sure RB was going to be all over you. (And you even said yourself that the game would be "harder to win" because of that in a post which was awkward ?.?) I am taking a step back beyond all of that (I even said I would need to step back from the bickering of you two) and really evaluate the situation before jumping on anything.

Therefore, in one direction, that is why Benguina and I wouldn't be a pair. My reads have been evolving and I have evidenced actions that really could suggested we are independent.

I'd like to hear Benguina's argument in the opposite direction as well.


Tiloco, if you are okay with assuming that a wolf is between dfr/melissa, but also have the idea that benguina and I are a pair, do you have a direction that you'd like to proceed for this lynch? Because from those two actions, you've exhausted all the possibilities of a lynch target this phase.

You mentioned earlier that I would be "safe" in a world of 2. Did that also mean a world of 1 wolf as well? What strikes me as weird is you also state that I appear town as well, so I'm not too confident here. The very act of throwing out a bunch of possibilities seems organic but also troubles me because in the back of my mind I'm thinking that you're just presenting all available possibilities to get the thread even more directionless/add more variability to our decisions.

the way you're doing it though isn't mechanical like just listing out every combination though, so there is merit in that.

And also, you said I'm safe because I appear in the most worlds according to your reasoning. However, have you examined each of those worlds and determined if each world has an EQUAL weight? You left those final lists without explanation for the reason being maintaining the brevity of your post.