TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

[Nighthawk252]

Re: TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

After another look at the AA v. J-Rodd/Zenith interaction, I still feel like they're being pretty hard on him. Like this exchange about a post AA made early on:

ok a quick read before I head to bed (not necessarily sleep lol)

zenith is almost certainly not a jester, if people really need an explanation I'll give one

Wait a minute wait a minute you are calling your confidence ploy just to be a reaction test and you wANTED VALIDITY BEFORE VALIDITY WAS EVEN NEEDED AND ALSO WANTED TO CONFORM INTO ANOTHER PLAYER INSTEAD OF BEING INDEPENDENT??????????????????????????????????

Fuck AA I thought you were getting better man

I think someone else pointed this out already but it's probably easier to type out the explanation than to type out the long explanation of why he's not giving it. It's pretty clear that he's trying for some sort of reaction test here.

J-Rodd made a post explaining why he thought that over-justification was suspicious, but I disagree. I think it was forced out of AA. He made the justification you're probably looking for here and then Zenith read into it too much here. AA gave the reaction J-Rodd thought would've been town in the first post, but Zenith twists it in the second and makes AA defend something he wasn't arguing in the first place.

That said, I'm coming out of this more confident that J-Rodd's town, or at least if he's not he's probably something like lyncher with AA as his target. One thing I distinctly remember about J-Rodd last game was that if two people were mad at each other, he'd try not to add things to it one way or the other. When Kawamii and choof were fighting he kinda had to add something in since Kawamii was his partner, so he went after Kawamii in a really, really diplomatic way. When Zenith and I were feuding I remember thinking his posts were oddly not referencing that as much.

[YoshL]

Re: TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

Votes from post 1 to post 916
Night in 8:55:17
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 3 -- j-rodd123 -- storn42 (21), AragakiAyase (83), lurker (69)
• 2 -- freakysnots -- Nighthawk252 (25), j-rodd123 (103)
• 1 -- Charu -- Charles Claythorne (43)
• 1 -- lurker -- Funnygurl555 (48)
• 1 -- _Zenith_ -- freakysnots (13)
• 1 -- choof -- MrPopadopalis25 (34)
• 1 -- AragakiAyase -- _Zenith_ (135)
• 2 -- unvote -- DaBackpack (125), choof (66)
• 1 -- not voting -- Charu (63)

this voting tool is finicky as hell wow

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

What's the statistical data then? And you disagree with nawk and I that mashi's megapost/reads list lacked conviction and gumption then?

Statistically I do not see Jrodd being a wolf in this game due to one case of angleshooting with him not rolling wolf this many times in a row, and another case of him being in lack of a better term abrasive against certain players and is surely posting naturally in examples like Jrodd v AA v Zenith and his other backs and forths with players.

I 90% agree with your read that the relationship between Jrodd v AA is PR/3rd Party, and based on my individual reads Jrodd is surely demonstrating more PR qualities than AA is.

I disagree that his megapost lacked conviction, but it did lack gumption and after his megapost he went into prodding players so imo he is making up for the lacks he once had.

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

How do you define angleshooting and how does AA's post meet that definition?

I define angleshooting as the attachment of an OGI data point with a data point in game, or lack thereof sufficient usable data point in game that nearly forces the player to consider a piece of information that isn't publically known to the game or hasn't been considered yet in the form that it wasn't brought up in game discussion.

AA went into this angleshooting territory when he strictly mentions he rolled 5 of the same letter in signup thread which is 100% an OGI Data point that he is trying to use to better his case in current events.

[Funnygurl555]

Re: TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

You're not posting food gifs.

what do you mean

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

What I'm trying to make AA understand is that he should throw away a practically nonexistent OGI Data Point because statistically there is one of the lowest chances it happened; especially knowing for a fact about two of the nine letter rolls in the game so far. Depending on if Lurker's Hated VT claim is true, you could theorycraft further letter rolls from there, but that's on your own accord if you wish to approach that way.

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

Lastly, we also have a solid form of proof that we have a Lyncher and a Hidden Lynchee and I hope someone has been trying to pin possible Lyncher/Hidden Lynchee relationships (Lyncher would want to try their best to get player A lynched).

I can see Lurker not being Hated VT but instead being the Lyncher and his lynch target is either Jrodd or myself.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

I don't think Charu is the jester

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

He hasn't played in a while if I'm not mistaken, his early behavior is either a slip or rusty play

[Funnygurl555]

Re: TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

He hasn't played in a while if I'm not mistaken, his early behavior is either a slip or rusty play

Anyone know how long Charu has taken a break from TWG?

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

I'm not reading AA as wolf, nor jrodd after that exchange

And to add to that I don't think AA'S behavior is that far fetched

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

So by "statistically" you mean "my resolve on my subjective opinions is very high" as opposed to "I have indisputable objective evidence?"

Rolling wolf 10 times or 0 times or 1000 times in the games prior has no bearing on the likelihood of rolling wolf in this specific instance. I don't disagree with your "he's not a wolf" read entirely, just playing devil's advocate.

And he could be abrasive and posting naturally as a CL or SK or jester or any sort of 3rd party role. For example, you're 3rd party but for the time being are playing the equivalent of a hated VT, thus allowing you to post "naturally." Jrodd could be the same.

By statistically I mean I am doubting he is a wolf because of the smaller chance he rolled wolf again, but it doesn't mean he can't be a 3rd party like you are saying.

If you are heavily implying that you are reading him as potential 3rd party, which role would you consider him being based on his actions thus far?

Personally, I cannot really see a CL or SK being in such light in D0. I would expect the CL or SK to either have not been rolled this game and it's just setup paranoia that we are collectively exhibiting, or that one or both is present and they would prefer to blend in rather than make a scene or go on the offensive in D0; but I could be wrong and there's no way to prove that I'm right or wrong as of now.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

And actually I'm still gonna stand by storn as a town or unlikely third party

This isn't his wolf play, and I've read him as a wolf his last 2 wolf games

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

I see, I see. If AA had done his own throwaway roll during the game itself to prove the same point (that crazy rolls are crazy but nevertheless possible) as opposed to referencing a past one he did would you consider that angleshooting as well?

Yes, that would be angleshooting because he would be using the OGI Data Point (it being the chances of rolling 5 same letters and how many times he can physically roll 5 same letters to prove that it is more probable than not) when the numbers cannot really lie on how frequent seeing a 5 of the same letter rolled is.

If he really wanted to test that theory he should try rolling setup 5 times and at most I can see him hitting that only one or not at all in a span of 5 times.

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG CXXXIX (139) - Intro to Bastard++ [Game Thread]

I would like to discuss where everyone is in a comfortable lynch pool or where they would not mind seeing a player die; I want to prevent a CFD because I'm not dying unless town absolutely has no other plans or needs to get me out of the way to ensure victory.