So this all boils down to who thinks they're the best flip-flop player, and have no one else play, then however many wolves there are (and get it right) will go into the 'hat' for the guard lottery. MMMmMMMM thats tasty thinking.
Wait, how would that help? That sounds to me like it would just leave a lot of players vulnerable.
well, weigh it against the likelihood of a random fodder player winning. if a central player exists who is holding all the knowledge and functioning as a leader of the alliance, he/she instantly becomes 3x more valuable than some random green.
If the wolves kill a random player, all that happens is we lose 1 vote, which this early doesn't matter. if they attack the public figure and the guard works, they don't get a kill that night.
Having some sort of alliance leader is a lot better than everyone playing by themselves. right now, statistically its better to have the wolves guessing randomly, and us able to orchestrate some information (and again having the chance of the wolves attacking a guarded alliance leader), than it is to have players shooting in the dark.
Course, if all the wolves play flip-flop, and the vast majority win, then it leaves our flip flop player screwed, since the chances of him/her getting a guard goes down the more wolves successfully play. Just a thought.
it puts you into a a drawing for the guard. Makilaz has a good enough point I guess. There are 12 players, so I'll guess there are 3 wolves. If the wolves have a 1/3 chance to win the game (flip, flop, flip-flop), then they will get 1 on average. Now this ignores any possible "skill" at the game. And that means that only 1 in 3 times our leader will be guarded.
If the game pans out that way, it wouldn't be very effective.
Though this is all bunk if we can get someone really good at the game (lol).
We could try an unprecedented 3 'leaders' where all other players tell the same thing to all 3, this provides a check and balance system, and gives up to a 50% chance to win the guard lottery. They wouldn't post if they won or not leaving the wolves guessing. Any misinformation would be pretty easy to catch, given or passed along, so it would be mighty easy to catch a wolf who came out, or a person who is lying.
Any three want to volunteer?
(1:47:34 PM) jwcgator: lol who da **** we gonna vote off tonight >.<
(1:47:40 PM) Vash: chromer
(1:47:43 PM) Vash: kuz he's black
(1:47:45 PM) Vash: rofl
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