jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2.

[mattc16]

Re: jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2. B=============================D

mead

i'm the wolfsbane, not mead. sorry i didn't say this earlier but i haven't been able to get on the computer since start of day

[Chromer]

Re: jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2. B=============================D

And we're supposed to believe you on what basis?

[quote\]The only way I can see this happening is to avoid lynch, but there's no suspicion on him yet, pretty much voiding that. He might be a wolf claiming to be bane so that someone can pipe up, "uh no I'm bane," but that wouldn't make sense because that would pretty much be lynch suicide. He might be claiming to be bane even though someone else is bane to protect them. Regardless, I don't see any pros to coming out as bane this early on.[quote\]

How do we know you're not just trying to aet Mead up for a incriminating statement? Mead, if you are reading this. send me a PM ASAP. Matt, you better be telling the truth. XD

[JurseyRider734]

Re: jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2. B=============================D

Yeah it's easy enough for mead to fake this. When I talked to him pre-game he said that he was going to come out as a blue if he was a wolf anyway.


Also, if the seer already went to mead...well...you're screwed.

If you haven't, don't.

[mead1]

Re: jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2. B=============================D

Ok, I am obviously the teller of truth here, but to humor everyone I will back it up with a bit more circumstantial evidence.

Firstly, in the history of TWG, there has never been a successful faking of a blue by the wolves when that blue came out to confront him. Not one. Knowing this, why the hell would I stick my neck out in a game with only two wolves? I'm not an idiot.

Notably, matt was also on my suspicions list thing. Maybe not on the top, but definately one of the few people I could see wolfing me.

It's obvious one of the two of us is a wolf, and it isn't me. Matt, faking blues doesn't work.

[mead1]

Re: jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2. B=============================D

Also, I got wolf on the first roll for roles. The odds of getting wolf twice in a row are 4/144, assuming the roles are randomly distributed. Which they are.

kthx.

Also, Jurs, I assume that means you don't believe me?
*e-tear

[AdTheRat]

Re: jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2. Pregame

Hmm I didn't know that. But then that brings up my original argument. If the MW makes an alliance with one or more of the wolves, the "scout" could gather information (while being sneaky if they are a vet) and repot back to MW making it harder to pin him down. Obviously, this thoery can't be tested until we get some damn kills. XD

Chromer there's only one MW and One Wolf as stated in the first post. As Mead said, no way would a vet or smart noob go without a kill on first day. It's mad to do so in such a small number of players.


mattc16 if you are wolfbane, you wouldn't of come out, knowing that you were safe from wolfing and then work at trying to figure out the wolf, avoid getting lynched. Unless, if you were the MW, maybe you could steal light from mead to get yourself in a better postions and get the real wolfsbane out the way.

[mead1]

Re: jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2. B=============================D

That's really flawed logic there Ad, if I was lying, it would definately be to the wolfsbanes advantage to come out and get me lynched. It'd be an easy way to get a wolf. The problem being, I'm not lying, so I can't imagine what would posses Matt to try a stunt like this.

[AdTheRat]

Re: jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2.

Must learn to post faster. Now I've ended up double posting. double post ftw

Jurs - very interesting, Argh! Now who the hell is who! That thrown a spanner into my thinking.

Meads: hmm, how do we know if you got that role the first time? not unless Neo tells us.

[lightdarkness]

Re: jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2.

Get the penis out of the topic titles.

[Neonatrias]

Re: jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2.

This is exactly the scenario I brought up yesterday in a small chat with a few people. Exactly who they were escapes me right now, but I have the log at home. (That is, if Gaim worked right, which I hope it did.)

One of them is most definitely a wolf, and one of them is most definitely the wolfsbane. What makes it a problem is that whichever is the wolf is likely going to be the Master Wolf. Mead is intelligent and established as someone who knows what he's doing, yes?

Okay, now. Seer. Don't bother seering either one of them tonight, they'll both turn up human. Remember, the MW role comes back human, and we can (mainly) safely assume here that the liar is the MW.

Everyone, start brainstorming ideas on how to trip the liar up in his own words. It's the only way we're going to get this done right.

[AdTheRat]

Re: jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2.

Just throwing in a idea, what if it's a human covering his ass to stay alive and avoid a wolfing? then you would have a human that a wolf would avoid and a wolfbane out there, in which case would increase humans chances?

Of course, very unlikely still, an idea.

And to trip a liar is to ask them questions, many.

(three cheers for LD - the penis was quite annoying)

[ddr_dude]

Re: jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2.

OK, there are a number of things to think about here. A ton of scenarios and a ton of things that could go wrong. If mead is telling the truth, then that would make matt a wolf, but not necessarily the mw. What if matt is a regular wolf and the mw told him to say he's bane to fook us up. Isnt that always a scenario?

[vashthestampede0987]

Re: jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2.

Ad, a human trying to save himself from wolfing by coming out as bane is idiotic because the real bane would have come out and countered this thinking you're a wolf or some reason like that. Your scenario is a plan that has been used in past TWG's where the bane has a partner where he comes out as fake bane while real bane plays it as a regular human. Seering is useless as Neo alread pointed out. More to come later as I analyze this s'more.

[mead1]

Re: jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2.

Vash, we both know you will end up thinking I'm the wolf. You ALWAYS think I'm the wolf. Notably, you have NEVER been right. I'm open to questioning, anything you guys want to do to prove my humanity is fine with me. All I know is, Matt is a wolf for sure.

[Necamus]

Re: jTWG XVIII: I Spy V.2.

Now, I think the wolves are probably jTWG vets, as someone who had never played before at all probably would have chosen someone randomly, having no knowledge of the skill levels.

I'm going to have to disagree there. A person could simply vote to kill you because they recognize your name and see your huge post count (Did that sound dirty to anyone else..?) and vote for you purely off that. I remember when I was seer on my first game I seered Iggymatrixcounter simply because I recognized the name. I had been too lazy to see how many games he had played.

He might be a wolf claiming to be bane so that someone can pipe up, "uh no I'm bane," but that wouldn't make sense because that would pretty much be lynch suicide.

After I read this, I expected someone else to come out as Bane, and when Matt did, I became horribly suspicious of both Mead and Matt.

Mead, whether he is a wolf or the bane, made a good choice by coming out. Because now if he is a wolf and if the seer goes to him, the seer is a goner and the humans are in deep ****. And if he truly is the bane then it is a good idea to get that out as quickly as possible so he can form an alliance. Problem is that now we have Matt who is accusing Mead of lieing, which could also be a good idea in two ways. If Matt is the bane, he really had to do this to keep the seer from going to Mead.

But if Matt is a wolf, this would make the seer suspicious of Mead and would either slow the creation of an alliance or get the seer to talk to Matt. But I highly doubt Matt would come out like this is he was a wolf. First off, the seer could have already gone to Mead. Second, with only two wolves, I doubt a wolf would take such a risk. Especially the MW. Sure, the MW wouldn't be caught by the seer, but right now it is really a 50-50 chance of who will die between those two.