TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

[Hateandhatred]

Originally Posted by Arapocalypse

[edited your post down to relevant parts]

I don't necessarily want to get into this too much, as I want to avoid letting this discussion to consume the thread; that being said, I do want to make one last effort to explain my reasoning and then I'll drop it!!!

Consider these hypothetical worst-case scenarios from the perspective of a vanilla town Haku, if you would:

A: Haku votes no one as Vengeful Spirit and, keeping in mind both me/Leetic had loudly proclaimed to be very very hard townreading them, still manages to get voted off - you've talked about this one already, and yes this would end the game!

B: Haku votes sunfan to put two votes on sunfan, then sunfan claims Freikugel and mafia out to hammer sunfan, which ends the game!

From Haku's perspective, my/leetic's strong townreads on Haku meant that Scenario A is just so much less likely to occur than Scenario B that it simply is not worth considering for them, is my main point!!!

Sure, Scenario B is not necessarily that likely, but if Haku is vanilla town than B is already more likely than A anyways, so better to be on the safe side and not vote to prevent B from happening!!

Honestly I would be shocked if Scenario A even occurred to Haku at all at the time they popped in, they just have never been in danger of getting voted out at all this game!!!!

Also, technically there's Scenario C where Haku votes some other non-leetic/sunfan person, but why do that if you (Haku) have strong townreads on everyone who isn't sunfan, and there's already 1 person voting sunfan anyway?

Anyways, if this doesn't make sense to you then sorry, I'm leaving it at that; I'm spending way too much time on this already anyways, rewritten it half a dozen times probably!!!!

B: You're forgetting the context of B, though. This vote was never going to stick.

It's of course never impossible that Haku is town, but unless someone does an uncontested hard PR claim, that's just not going to happen.

and as for Haku not thinking about it, I understand you believe it, but I don't believe that can be true due to experience with this person in my life where there's no way this is the timeline.

I appreciate your comments though, and I do think the "if haku actually thought the vote on sunfan counted" is a sensible argument. However, I don't think there is anything anyone could possibly say that that would drop him from the most likely wolf in my eyes because of this.

That being said, I'd really like for you (not just ara, but everyone) to understand that I'm so sure of this that I'm willing the attack the afk person over it, knowing full well that that's the most sus thing to do, and if you think *I* didn't think of that and just did the most blind play ever, then I'm just going to take the L and stop fighting.