TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

Wait sunfan, you said I claim to have more. What are you talking about here exactly? I don't know the context. Do you want me to iso him or are you wondering about something I said before?

did you not say it was more than just the mechanics thing?

[Hateandhatred]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

sven this is kind of unfortunate because I think lar and haku are the only people who can confirm this, but if any of your reservations on me are over the wolfchat thing, if either of them show up before the end, ask them about whether or not FFR normally has day wolfchat

both of them know that it is almost always on

I kinda wish to ask the host or a random non player. It's kind of illegal though, but since it has to do with the rules...

Meh, fuck it. I believe you, I don't think you would gamble me on the fucking rules and twg norms. But I still feel like you're hard trying to pocket me

[Arapocalypse]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

I am tinfoiling Haku hard because we've had a very close relationship for like a decade and a half and I know this is exactly how he would play this out in this position. Even people who aren't having daily interactions with him have played with him long enough to know he would be cooking this shit up in wolfchat nonchalantly while talking about the reality that he's not going to be around for half the phase and already benefits from an immense amount of town cred in order to lock the game to his benefit, assuming we don't nail the other wolf instead.


Again, what haku said is good, what haku did is bad. One of them is potentially all baloney, the other is tangible indisputable info. We know for a fact he parked himself on bugkid the entire phase and now isn't voting, regardless of how it was phrased, and he knew he wouldn't be around for EOD. We also know that he is keenly aware of the danger of not voting as HE BROUGHT IT UP HIMSELF! Even a stupid KITB setup could spell doom for town if he stayed unvoted, was lynched and was the vengeful spirit. None of those things are things he could defend himself on. I'm not accusing him of doing these things for bad reasons, I'm accusing him of doing these things at all based on the info we can actually track. I don't care if he was himself the gospel of truth, he could not defend that he stayed unvoted despite knowing the risk, and there's only one reason why he would do that. Unless he just misplayed extremely bad, but that's just unbelievable.

[edited your post down to relevant parts]

I don't necessarily want to get into this too much, as I want to avoid letting this discussion to consume the thread; that being said, I do want to make one last effort to explain my reasoning and then I'll drop it!!!

Consider these hypothetical worst-case scenarios from the perspective of a vanilla town Haku, if you would:

A: Haku votes no one as Vengeful Spirit and, keeping in mind both me/Leetic had loudly proclaimed to be very very hard townreading them, still manages to get voted off - you've talked about this one already, and yes this would end the game!

B: Haku votes sunfan to put two votes on sunfan, then sunfan claims Freikugel and mafia out to hammer sunfan, which ends the game!

From Haku's perspective, my/leetic's strong townreads on Haku meant that Scenario A is just so much less likely to occur than Scenario B that it simply is not worth considering for them, is my main point!!!

Sure, Scenario B is not necessarily that likely, but if Haku is vanilla town than B is already more likely than A anyways, so better to be on the safe side and not vote to prevent B from happening!!

Honestly I would be shocked if Scenario A even occurred to Haku at all at the time they popped in, they just have never been in danger of getting voted out at all this game!!!!

Also, technically there's Scenario C where Haku votes some other non-leetic/sunfan person, but why do that if you (Haku) have strong townreads on everyone who isn't sunfan, and there's already 1 person voting sunfan anyway?

Anyways, if this doesn't make sense to you then sorry, I'm leaving it at that; I'm spending way too much time on this already anyways, rewritten it half a dozen times probably!!!!

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

You could talk me into voting mml - and I know it's a huge meme because he literally came back to roast me over shit that never happened then dipped with his vote parked on me despite seeing that I actually have a real point against haku...

... But I would much rather vote haku and I do not see that changing. So everyone else, please... Do it the mechanical way, just this once. I know some of you don't know haku all that well, but like, it is seering just how much the patterns align

part of me has become worried you're w and he's t and you just was to mislynch him because it'd make you feel good

[Hateandhatred]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

did you not say it was more than just the mechanics thing?

no? unless I wrote it like shit, I actually said I think haku is golden outside of this. This pattern is just too real to me to give the rest any sort of real thought considering that it's tangible stuff and not just words of deception

[Arapocalypse]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

You could talk me into voting mml - and I know it's a huge meme because he literally came back to roast me over shit that never happened then dipped with his vote parked on me despite seeing that I actually have a real point against haku...

... But I would much rather vote haku and I do not see that changing. So everyone else, please... Do it the mechanical way, just this once. I know some of you don't know haku all that well, but like, it is seering just how much the patterns align

I'm currently voting you in spirit, but my secondary choice would be sunfan; would you compromise there?



...Might consider moving sunfan up to my first choice, you being so adamant about this read is starting to veer into TWTBAW territory!!!

[the sun fan]

sven I think I am faced with the sobering reality that there's an hour left, leetic and ara aren't realistically voting haku, lar doesn't seem interested
you can bang this drum more if you want but I don't know that it is super likely that we can actually kill haku here

[Hateandhatred]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

part of me has become worried you're w and he's t and you just was to mislynch him because it'd make you feel good

That literally makes no sense. I would rather haku be alive with me at eod, but I just genuinely believe he's wolfing. And why would I feel good about us lynching him when he's not around?

This only works in theory if the basis for my attack is about how he's not here, but like, you see what I'm saying. It almost makes no difference whether or not he's here, but I think he specifically went for this play because he couldn't be around.

[the sun fan]

honestly I really think sleep is a valid option here but like
there's a lot of mechanics at play to where stuff can go wrong (a potential devil's shot, for example)

we're at even numbers anyways

me from a few years ago would shoot me once in the head and then once in the heart for even thinking about this for more than 2 seconds but it feels like wolves can easily direct this EOD

[the sun fan]

someone punch me really hard and tell me why we shouldn't sleep

[leetic]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

someone punch me really hard and tell me why we shouldn't sleep

For one, no lynch is off

[leetic]

Honestly sun fan might just be boxed in at this point

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by leetic

For one, no lynch is off

ah piss

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by leetic

Honestly sun fan might just be boxed in at this point

nuh uh

[Arapocalypse]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

I know that sven thinks it would be me in the world but like
this really sounds like a hakuplan, and one where he just lives by virtue of being left alive by not being voted rather than one where he fake-distances from his partner

(honestly I think haku is more likely to actually vote me if we're together but I'd probably tell him not to in wolfchat? maybe this is too complicated and too much conjecture to really solidly say)

Not going to lie, I lowkey probably dislike you starting to agree with it more because like... it just feels too easy to fuel the flames? Especially when the very strong Haku townread was practically the first thing you posted in the game!!



Granted, sure I don't have the meta knowledge that you do, but still; just am not that into your reaction here!!!

[the sun fan]

well, leetic has ruined any chance I have at saving the game while sleeping

realistically, I think the wagon is most likely to develop onto me next, and that sucks and town might be so desperate as to not be able to really withstand it

[the sun fan]

sven level with me
how likely are we to end up voting for the same person here

like if I vote lar, leetic or ara because haku died of hypothermia or whatever

[leetic]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

well, leetic has ruined any chance I have at saving the game while sleeping

realistically, I think the wagon is most likely to develop onto me next, and that sucks and town might be so desperate as to not be able to really withstand it

You might want to claim by EoD if you have a PR

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by leetic

You might want to claim by EoD if you have a PR

I assure you that if I am a PR and a wagon develops on me, I will have claimed by EOD

[Arapocalypse]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

GOD THANK YOU

I love you so much.

And well, Yes I'm willing to iso him from the start of the game, scrutinizing every post, but I want to reiterate that I don't scumread him for his interactions, only this isolated situations, which set off all the alarms possible in my mind.

If you want the iso, I will go through it and try to think of it from both angle and not just build a narrative I promise. I had no flags on haku at all myself, but if you want interaction evidence, I will look into it.

On one hand I want to say I'd be interested, but on the other I don't think you really have time for that, at the moment!!!


Maybe if you live today, would you consider doing it tonight? That being said you're under absolutely no obligation to do so and I won't suspect you more or whatever for saying no; it's entirely possible one or both of you could die tonight anyway!!