TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

[MixMasterLar]

Actually before that happens

it'll be really cool and awesome if people started dropping votes

It's anti town to wait last second and super anti town to not vote this set up, so I'll be treating you accordingly next phase if you're tardy with a vote

[mellon_collie]

sure I'll throw a vote on hateandhatred for now

I don't like that he showed up but didn't follow through

[MixMasterLar]

Thinking about it, I don't know how much I wanna read into bug using the term Vanilla Wolf

I have seen wolves use those jokes and make those slips, but have also seen town do the same

I feel as though town Bug might not have made that joke in that manner but like, I don't know what wolf Bug actually does

It's an endless WIFOM and I agree it makes me want to see more from Bug and maybe even judge them more harshly over it, but idk if i want that to be my sole reason to off them

'sides, they are agreeing with my logic, and that's a pretty good stance to take

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i have never once rolled anything other than vanilla wolf. if i end up getting vengeful spirit i'm still not counting it

i know some people really hate rolling wolf but i can't hate it because I've NEVER EXPERIENCED IT AND I'M STILL VERY SALTY ABOUT IT

LMFAO VANILLA WOLF

[Hateandhatred]

Originally Posted by leetic

Doing the calculations, assuming no interference from the Soul Stealer the Freikugel has an 81.25% chance of getting two shots off uninterupted. If the first roll is a one or a two, it's completely safe in fact. Since town KP is so high it's probably good to aggressively nail down the PoE quickly.

My first question here is what is a PoE?

Originally Posted by Arapocalypse

Regarding the Vengeful Spirit, I think the obvious thing here is for the top two wagons to always be voting each other at the end of the day; it would ensure a possible Vengeful Spirit shot is always used, and also help clear up the wagons if so!!

I don't know if I necessarily agree with this. There's no way to know if one of the two wagons is even a wolf, and it forces whoever has this power to follow the majority whenever there's pressure on them, and since they're not scum themselves, it assumes that the other wagon is a wolf, and frankly, I think it overly narrows their personal scope, since they have information no one else has (they know they are actually a PR and therefore look at the game from a different perspective)

I also feel like this puts a lot of strange scrutiny over the person being threathened with a lynch like "wait, they're not budging, maybe they are the PR" making us more likely to derail from a better target. I do see value in it, but frankly they should just play their own game, and to avoid having two potential mislynch, it's probably better for them to claim anyway. In fact, I think the true value of blues here is in staying hidden and alive so that we can eventually have them claim in order to mathematically solve the game.

I dunno if my logic works out, but I think we shouldn't "obviously" agree that this is how it should be. Thoughts?

Originally Posted by leetic

The thing we may want to discuss is whether it would be beneficial for the Freikugel to announce their result.

I don't think it's beneficial for the PR with nighttime kill power to reveal themselves unless it reduces the lynch pool in a drastic way. Feel free to elaborate on this, but I feel like this is a shitty idea, Like you said, it's worth discussing, it's d0 after all and if it can stir some non-shitpost conversation due to the setup, it's alright

You might have also said that specifically to rile people up, and I'm the only player noob enough to be like "well wrestling isn't real by the way" while everyone else understood what you were doing 🙃

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I feel like I'm in an episode of Good Cop Bad Cop.

This reference will fly over everyone's head but me, even though it's an universal concept, at least in the americas. Tabarnak

Originally Posted by leetic

I find this post really lame. It's up to you to engage people, you can't just expect people to suddenly have the content you feel okay with.

I don't really agree with this. People have shitty contributions all the time and I don't think it's necessarily due to how much you engage with others. I don't have the most experience in TWG, but I see a lot of veteran players who engage a lot with the games being frustrated with this as well, so I feel like Haku is making sense here.

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Did not expect so much serious chat in here so soon, was sorta looking forward to shit posting lol

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Let's get the easy observation out of the way: Haku's town

As far as roles goes, I think I can agree that town being aggressive early is much better then town being even proactive later because we can still make mistakes at this juncture; I've played too many games were blues sat on Killer Powers until the end and let bias-induced anger triggers them to lose the game.

I do my my own bias in that I would target the least active first, though, but if anyone needs me to prach that gospel again I'm sure you'll ask me and I'll type it all up later. Or go read literally any game I've ever been in since 2019.

Let's see

Haku seems like his town game
Leetic seems alright, he could make those post as wolf but I feel good leaning town
I'm garbage at reading Raeko but nothing seems out of the ordinary for her town game
I'll just leave Ara and Bug at gray for now

I feel the same you do about this. How do you feel in general about letting PRs blend in and follow their own agenda?

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

A lot has changed in my life over the last year or two. The positive change is that I know love with my fianceé Alanna, and I have never known someone who completes me in the way she does.

Fuckin' A man, congrats! =)

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

what's up party people

Yeah I was not expecting such serious chat so early either. not gonna lie it was WAY too late for me to read all of that and comprehend it last night but now that it's morning and I've read it I gotta say I mostly agree with Haku in post #19

I think let the blues do their own thing and lets not worry about it too much and potentially influence them. They are town and I believe in them to do the right thing!!!

and of course my dog pooped on the floor as I'm making this post lololol

Ily and I agree

Originally Posted by roundbox

On whether or not the Freikugel should call their shot: I'm gonna do some thinking about that

Points in favor of calling their shot
-It's a claim which helps town with raw PoE
-It directly helps the Soul Stealer by providing them information relevant to the weakness of their role
-You'll still kill someone N2 as wolves murder you to death

Points against
-Getting a N3 shot off would be great assuming we have enough players alive at that point, but is that realistic?
-Wolves guarantee a hit on our KP

I still don't know what PoE is. I could google it cuz it's probably some mafia term, but come on, y'all are smarties and you can tell me plzkthx

That aside, You aren't guaranteed to kill someone on N2 if you did that. If you have information, it means you acted on N1, and you could have a 50% chance to roll 3 or 4. Like Leetic said, you're more than likely to get it twice, and it's not like the devil shot would automatically fuck us up. And again, I think your thinking doesn't cover the benefits of them not saying anything at all, like the value in simply preserving a PR for confirmed towns down the line.

Originally Posted by roundbox

Let me do some quick math:

D0: 9: 7 town, 2 wolves. If Vengeful pops off, we're down to 7: 6 town 1 wolf is BEST case, 5 town 2 wolf is WORST case.
BEST CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: We win game as Freikugel shoots the last wolf to death.
BETTER CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: Freikugel kills town instead. We're down to 5: 4 town, 1 wolf.
WORST CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: We're down to 5: 3 town, 2 wolf.
D1: Ends in wolf victory or down to 3-1.
N2: Would lead to potential victory if Freikugel is alive and shoots correctly. If Freikugel hits town, game is over.

Assuming Vengeful stays alive until the end and both KPs pop each night:
D0: 7-1 best case, 6-2 worst case.
N1: Victory best case, 5-1 better case, 4-2 worst case.
D1: Victory best case, 4-1 better case, 3-2 worst case.
N2: Victory best case, 1-2 worst case (LOSE), 2-1 case which makes D2 as final voting.

It seems pretty unlikely we'll hit a third night phase unless wolf JOAT pulls off serious plays.

You know what? After running through these scenarios, I think leetic has a decent point. It seems hard to get that far in the game, and it just might benefit us if we're in a worst case D2 with 3 town dead.
That being said, we'll do the math tomorrow when we have the actual flips.

I agree, I obviously don't feel strongly towards revealing anything about the PRs, but I might feel differently after d0. I also don't like overthinking this before a single voting phase has happened, since to me it's always the most telling about alignment, but I'm enjoying the fact that people actually want to discuss the setup, unlike with my TWG with only power roles xD

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

That was a much quicker reread then I figured lol

To me, if there is an active wolf here I would bet it's Ara because it definitely feels like they engaged in the mechanics talk only because it would have been weird not to, and when it became safe to not address they dropped it pretty quickly.

It's reactive, is essentially my complaint

Even the reads list later on comes after we shifted to posting soft reads

Granted we have yet to really hear from Bug or HnH and to be fair, historically speaking on FFR the inactives are the wolves so you know always kinda got that in the back of my mind

But yeah let's get spicey and lay down that vote see where that gets us

How true is it that the inactives are wolfier? I've seen this being said a lot, but in my experience, it seems like an unfounded assumption. I'm not saying it never happens, just like it's more like "the team that wins the playoffs is never the one with the best regular season" kind of deal.

Also, is there a perceived strategic value to wolves being more passive, or do people just hate being wolves and that makes them not want to play at all?

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i like the idea of proposing all of the potential scenarios regarding Freikugel and generally agree that talking mechanics doesn't give much regarding alignment. it's how people talk about mechanics that gives alignment clues. maybe that's a dumb and redundant thought but i figured i'd make it anyways.

It's a limited information game and that's literally how it works. I don't think it's dumb and redundant, in fact, the fact you said this makes me think you're just genuinely engaging. Of course it's like 1/10 important based on vibes or whatever but I think it's interesting that you specifically choose to say it

Originally Posted by bugkid666

this is very typical rb/raeko lmao
raeko: i am saying something for the sake of it
rb: sounds like youre just saying something for the sake of it......
seems t/t

You're going to have to explain to me how that is alignment indicative and not just the fact that it's really them using their accounts

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i agree on this assessment, i dont think a wolf comes straight out the gate with game mechanics and PR hunting publicly lol

sorry for my absence, i don't have a fun excuse i just forgor but i'm here now until EoD!

I don't agree with this actually. I think it's in wolf's best interest to gain sympathy capital asap and appear like they have nothing to hide.

I have more posts to react to probably, took me a while to write this

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by roundbox

who do you like so far this game, Haku?

Nearly everyone tbh.

The only pile I'm less comfortable about is Ara, H&H and now bug because of that specific post.

As for leetic, I can at least agree that the posting style is how it is for NSM in general. Their forums are more role driven. So, at least that aspect of their play seems genuine to me.

[bugkid666]

my only defense for that is that i fell asleep briefly, woke up, wrote that post and then fell back asleep.

it aint easy being stupid

[leetic]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

LMFAO VANILLA WOLF

Who's your partner?

More seriously, claiming VT this early seems a bit tryhard? Like it reads like an attempt to gain town points rather than a thought-out move to help town's chances. Basically, LAMIST (though I hate the term)

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Nearly everyone tbh.

The only pile I'm less comfortable about is Ara, H&H and now bug because of that specific post.

As for leetic, I can at least agree that the posting style is how it is for NSM in general. Their forums are more role driven. So, at least that aspect of their play seems genuine to me.

The thing is, that's a third of the players not even counting the slanker. Is the Ara read a sheep or do you have more to add?

[leetic]

Ew wallpost

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by leetic

Ew wallpost

don't ew it we love a good wallpost here 8)

of course H&H had to come and make me look foolish immediately after I make my vote gdi hahahaha

[leetic]

As for the responses to my posts, I already explained what PoE is, revealing the kill power when they're already pretty much guaranteed to use all their shots isn't really a disadvantage, I'm not sure what point you're trying to make with your Haku defense

[leetic]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

don't ew it we love a good wallpost here 8)

of course H&H had to come and make me look foolish immediately after I make my vote gdi hahahaha

How good is it though? Are you townreading the effort here?

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by leetic

The thing is, that's a third of the players not even counting the slanker. Is the Ara read a sheep or do you have more to add?

Yeah, kinda just sheeping you overall.

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

it aint easy being stupid

I feel this in my soul


I really do not know what to think about that "slip".... it confuses me.... and intrigues me

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Yeah, kinda just sheeping you overall.

Following consensus doesn't count for much though. What would you say is your thought about the game that is most against the grain of the thread?

[Hakulyte]

I'll be voting bugkid666 this phase. It's going to bother me the entire game if nothing happens.

[MixMasterLar]

Battery really low but real quick @HnH

1 Thankya kindly
2 Blues should definitely make their own choices but I think it would be better if they fired as hard and fast as possible, and I feel it's fair to share that. I said elsewhere in here but will repeat though that I am not interested in town trying to micromanage the targets

3 Inactives being wolves was absolutely true for a good stretch of the time post-covid. If one of the GOATed players rolled wolf (we're talking Charu, Sun, Round, etc) they could keep the count up but their partners would absolutely be in the bottom three posters. I think at one point we had three games in a row that had town policy-voted lowest posted they would have won and after that happened I never left the "Lynch Inactives First" mentality. I should definitely find time to go back over the game history and do math sometimes (I likely won't)

Plus, even if they are town, inactives almost always stay alive for F5 and F3 and become free CFD fodder for wolves, so really not an upside to keeping them around.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I'll be voting bugkid666 this phase. It's going to bother me the entire game if nothing happens.

I don't entirely hate this from Haku because Halu always hyper-focus on those sort of things

But wanna see Big really give some effort before I follow it

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

I don't know if I necessarily agree with this. There's no way to know if one of the two wagons is even a wolf, and it forces whoever has this power to follow the majority whenever there's pressure on them, and since they're not scum themselves, it assumes that the other wagon is a wolf, and frankly, I think it overly narrows their personal scope, since they have information no one else has (they know they are actually a PR and therefore look at the game from a different perspective)

i dont really agree with this sentiment because i'm not sure anyone alluded to the fact that the reverse wagon had to be a wolf one. i think it accomplishes "solving" a wagon in case the other fails which can be helpful if the majority of town does in fact want that person solved. the alternative is the vengeful spirit killing someone that nobody else cared about solving. whether or not its necessary to consolidate to two wagons is up for debate but i can at least see the logic behind why someone might think that to be the best option.

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

I also feel like this puts a lot of strange scrutiny over the person being threathened with a lynch like "wait, they're not budging, maybe they are the PR" making us more likely to derail from a better target. I do see value in it, but frankly they should just play their own game, and to avoid having two potential mislynch, it's probably better for them to claim anyway. In fact, I think the true value of blues here is in staying hidden and alive so that we can eventually have them claim in order to mathematically solve the game.

I dunno if my logic works out, but I think we shouldn't "obviously" agree that this is how it should be. Thoughts?

youre missing the entire purpose of vengeful spirit which is that they were sent "vanilla town" and do not know that they are a vengeful spirit until after they are dead. unless you switched to talking about a different PR and i didnt notice?

see guys i can write vanilla town correctly i promise